The recent VAT reform weighed on China’s gold jewellery demand in November, denting gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange despite robust investment buying. Gold ETFs in China continued to attract notable inflows in the month and the PBoC reported gold purchases 13 months in a row.
Supported by reviving investment strength and relatively more active retailer replenishment, wholesale gold demand in China rebounded during September. Meanwhile, the PBoC announced its 11th consecutive monthly gold purchase and Chinese gold ETF flows turned positive.
The LBMA Gold Price AM in USD and the Shanghai Gold Benchmark PM (SHAUPM) in RMB bounced higher, both recording the strongest monthly gains since March. The local gold price premium fell from its record high, possibly driven by weaker gold demand during the month.
The local gold price premium soared to unseen levels in September and the PBoC extended its gold reserve rising streak to 11 months.
Gold prices quoted in USD and RMB headed in different directions in August. Major factors including rising US Treasury yields and a strong dollar weighed on the international gold price in USD. But the Chinese currency weakness, which depreciated by 2% against the dollar in the month, led to a mild increase in the RMB gold price.
Despite June weakness, the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD and the Shanghai Gold Benchmark PM (SHAUPM) in RMB ended the first half of 2023 higher by 5% and 9% respectively – the depreciation of RMB against the dollar over the period contributed to the significant difference.
Your monthly update on gold in China covering gold prices, wholesale demand, central bank buying and more.
Gold prices kicked 2023 off to a strong start. The SHAUPM in RMB registered a 2% gain in January and the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD rose by 5%.
China’s gold consumption boomed during the CNY holiday. A lower local gold price and freed-up travel budgets – due to COVID outbreaks in different regions – might have spurred consumer interest in gold products, especially Heritage gold jewellery and tiger-themed items.
While the possible outcomes of the three-child policy and various supporting measures remain uncertain, we believe there is a link between birth rates and gold consumption, and the details are worth analysing.
Gold prices saw marginal declines in October. Even though the US presidential election and a significant rebound in COVID-19 infection cases in many regions kept uncertainty elevated globally, climbing real interest rates in key markets such as the US and China weighed on local gold prices. As a result, the SHAUPM (RMB) and LBMA Gold Price AM (USD) fell by 1.8% and 0.4% respectively in the month.
