Weekly Markets Monitor

Geopolitical concerns eased as talks on access through the Strait of Hormuz continued.  Economic updates were uneven across major economies: in the US, resilient business activity and strong corporate earnings contrasted with a cooling labour market; Eurozone manufacturing improved; China’s exports stayed strong even as domestic activity moderated; Japan’s consumer spending weakened further; and in India, the RBI kept rates unchanged while business activity moderated.  

Last week was marked by shifting monetary policy expectations, fragile geopolitical conditions in the Middle East, and volatility across equity and currency markets. The Fed, BoE, and BoJ all held rates amid dissenting votes.

Geopolitical tensions re-escalated last week as the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz intensified (though paused late on Friday) and the US unveiled fresh tariffs.

Geopolitical tensions escalated last week, while economic data pointed to divergence. In the US, inflation softened; consumer demand and labor markets stayed resilient. In the Eurozone, the trade deficit widened and industrial production fell.

Geopolitics resurfaced last week as the US-Iran ceasefire came under strain. US data pointed to softer services activity, a wider trade deficit and hawkish Fed messaging. 

Economic updates were at the fore last week. In the US, weak jobs data and softer manufacturing activity reduced expectations of near-term Fed tightening.

The past week saw US‑Iran tensions ease following peace talks, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resuming. 

A data light shortened week in the US put the spotlight on Fed Chairman Warsh’s first meeting and a perceived ‘hawkish pause’. Sentiment was however aided by signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran. 

The past week was marked by optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement and a historic mega IPO. On the macro front, headline inflation accelerated across major economies. 

The stronger than expected US employment report raised expectations of tighter monetary policy, triggering a selloff in stocks and bonds.

Last week was dominated by developments around US-Iran negotiations and strong US corporate earnings. Inflation pressures remain elevated across major economies, including Tokyo, the UK, Australia, and the US, though government subsidies helped soften the impact in some regions.

Last week, investors monitored US-Iran peace negotiations amid mixed global economic data. In the US, manufacturing and labour markets remained resilient, although consumer sentiment fell to a record low and inflation expectations increased.

Last week, markets focused on the Trump-Xi summit amid fading hopes of an Iran peace deal, while stronger-than-expected US inflation reinforced higher-for-longer rate expectations.

While geopolitics continued to dominate headlines last week, markets focused on strong earnings and supportive economic data.

The Fed, ECB, Bank of England, and BoJ all held rates steady last week, even as conflicting Middle East war headlines and sticky inflation clouded the outlook.