Weekly Markets Monitor

Last week, optimism from a US – China tariff truce and easing inflation was tempered by slower US spending, a sharp drop in China’s bank lending, and Japan’s economic slowdown, even as Europe posted strong growth. Moody’s became the last of the three ratings agency to downgrade the credit rating of the US late on Friday. While the technical fallout may be minimal, it could usher in a sentiment hit on Monday.

Last week saw a raft of central bank announcements: the Fed kept rates unchanged, while China and the UK cut. Meanwhile, trade tensions eased as the US reached a deal with the UK and began talks with China. Key events to watch this week include changes in global trade uncertainties, US CPI prints and gold market positioning shifts.

Last week, markets absorbed strong US earnings and labor data, steady BoJ policy, weak Chinese factory activity, and stronger EU growth, reflecting mixed global momentum.

Last week, market volatility continued, but signs of easing trade tensions emerged. Concerns over the Fed’s independence also eased. But the IMF downgraded global and regional growth forecasts amid trade risks.

Tariff uncertainty continued to weigh on global markets last week. Weak US data and new chip export restrictions on China added to concerns. Growth worries drove ECB rate cuts while China’s economy showed resilience in Q1.

Trade tensions steered sentiment last week. Trump's temporary tariff relief boosted optimism, but mixed economic data and lingering trade uncertainty kept volatility elevated.

Last week, the US rattled global markets with unexpectedly aggressive reciprocal tariffs, prompting swift retaliation from China and potential countermeasures from others. The aggressive moves raised fears of slower growth, higher inflation, and job losses, overshadowing otherwise positive economic data.

Markets focused on trade tensions last week, as a new 25% US auto import tariff and upcoming retaliatory tariffs weighed on sentiment. Stagflation worries added to the pressure.

Gold finally closed above the US$3,000/oz threshold. It has so far rejected technical resistance at $3,040/3,050/oz and the market is seen as highly overstretched, with a possible (healthy) pause in the core uptrend on the cards.