Weekly Markets Monitor

The past week saw US‑Iran tensions ease following peace talks, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resuming. 

A data light shortened week in the US put the spotlight on Fed Chairman Warsh’s first meeting and a perceived ‘hawkish pause’. Sentiment was however aided by signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran. 

The past week was marked by optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement and a historic mega IPO. On the macro front, headline inflation accelerated across major economies. 

The stronger than expected US employment report raised expectations of tighter monetary policy, triggering a selloff in stocks and bonds.

Last week was dominated by developments around US-Iran negotiations and strong US corporate earnings. Inflation pressures remain elevated across major economies, including Tokyo, the UK, Australia, and the US, though government subsidies helped soften the impact in some regions.

Last week, investors monitored US-Iran peace negotiations amid mixed global economic data. In the US, manufacturing and labour markets remained resilient, although consumer sentiment fell to a record low and inflation expectations increased.

Last week, markets focused on the Trump-Xi summit amid fading hopes of an Iran peace deal, while stronger-than-expected US inflation reinforced higher-for-longer rate expectations.

While geopolitics continued to dominate headlines last week, markets focused on strong earnings and supportive economic data.

The Fed, ECB, Bank of England, and BoJ all held rates steady last week, even as conflicting Middle East war headlines and sticky inflation clouded the outlook.

Strong US economic data and upbeat corporate earnings contrasted with weakening consumer confidence in the US and Europe last week. Uncertainties around the US–Iran conflict remained key in influencing market sentiment.

Geopolitics remained in focus last week, with signs of de-escalation between the US and Iran, boosting market sentiment. Better-than-expected economic updates across the US, Europe and China, alongside upbeat Q1 US corporate earnings further supported global markets.

Last week, the Middle East conflict continued to dominate market sentiment. Economic data signaled price pressures and slowing activity.

In a holiday-shortened and geo-politically volatile week, economic data came in stronger than expected—US jobs, manufacturing, retail sales, and confidence all beat forecasts. China showed improving economic momentum and India’s manufacturing output rose. At the same time, in the Eurozone, price pressures from the surge in energy costs are emerging.

Geopolitics and rising energy prices dominated markets last week, raising stagflation concerns. Early signs of fallout from the Middle East conflict are emerging, with softer PMIs across several economies. In the US, consumer sentiment weakened as inflation expectations rose. UK inflation held steady in February but faces upward pressure from higher energy costs, while Japan’s inflation eased on subsidies. China’s industrial profits rose, pointing to a firmer recovery

Last week was marked by major central bank meetings and escalating geopolitical tensions. Most central banks, including the Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, held rates steady but highlighted rising inflation risks and signaled a hawkish bias, while the RBA hiked. Economic data was mixed, stronger in China but weaker across other major economies.