Ray Jia

Gold’s volatility has markedly increased in 2026; however, similar episodes have occurred in periods of risk with volatility usually normalising within a few months. Bid-ask spreads have also notably risen since 2024; however, barring unusually high spikes in off market hours, the gold market still offers sizable liquidity through record trading volumes and two-way market activity. Amid a visible increase in the bond-equity correlation, gold remains a valuable strategic asset and portfolio diversifier even when accounting for its higher volatility environment.

A decline in March narrowed gold’s Q1 gain. Wholesale gold demand rebounded notably m/m supported by seasonality. Local gold ETFs saw continued inflows in March, pushing the Q1 demand to a record high. The PBoC’s gold purchasing streak extended to 17 months in March. And gold imports during the first two months of 2026 rose. 

Gold rose in USD terms but fell when priced in RMB – due mainly to the strengthening currency. Wholesale gold demand stayed relatively resilient in February, the Chinese New Year month, compared to the similar period in 2025. Local gold ETFs saw further inflows and the PBoC announced gold purchases 16 months in a row. 

Slow gold supply responses to the surging price raised concerns of its sustainability. And while “easy” gold mines might be depleted gradually, reserves should stay stable. And above-ground gold stocks should – though not all accessible – also help underpin total supply’s stability. Meanwhile, large gold mine discoveries should have limited short-term impact on the gold price. And coordinated production changes remain improbable.

The local gold price kicked 2026 off with its strongest January on record. And while it pulled back sharply in late January and early February, gold bounced back since. In January, investment demand benefited from the powerful gold price rally – bullion sales at gold stores surged and Chinese gold ETFs’ holdings expanded sizably. Meanwhile, the PBoC keeps reporting gold purchases, further boosting retail investors’ interest. Gold jewellery demand also improved amid retailers’ pre-Chinese New Year holiday restocking. 

The RMB gold price recorded its strongest year since the SGE’s launch in 2002. Firm prices continued to attract inflows into gold ETFs in December, culminating in their best year on record. The PBoC also extended its buying streak to 14 consecutive months. However, weakness in the gold jewellery sector – despite a seasonal uptick in December – more than offset robust investment demand, weighing on overall wholesale gold demand in 2025.

Global gold mining has been stable in recent years. Despite short-term impacts stemming from the pandemic, safety stoppages and industrial action, mined gold production averaged a near zero annual y/y change between 2018 and 2024. 

The recent VAT reform weighed on China’s gold jewellery demand in November, denting gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange despite robust investment buying. Gold ETFs in China continued to attract notable inflows in the month and the PBoC reported gold purchases 13 months in a row. 

Supported by investment strength, wholesale gold demand in China rose m/m and y/y during October, defying the seasonal weakness. Local gold ETFs also saw notable inflows, generally tracking the gold price. Meanwhile, the PBoC reported its 12th consecutive monthly gold purchase. Looking ahead, the VAT reform in China’s gold market may insert profound impact on different sectors of local gold demand.

China recently announced changes to the gold market value-added tax policies, effective from 1 November 2025 to 31 December 2027. Members who buy and sell gold directly on the SGE remain VAT free; meanwhile, members withdrawing physical gold and re-selling with investment purposes are not impacted, while those with non-investment purposes now face higher costs when they re-distribute. 

With higher costs, gold jewellery demand in China may face some headwinds, but it may can also be an additional catalyst for innovation amidst a competitive landscape. Investment demand is not directly impacted by the policy, but we may see greater concentration of gold buying through SGE members.

Supported by reviving investment strength and relatively more active retailer replenishment, wholesale gold demand in China rebounded during September. Meanwhile, the PBoC announced its 11th consecutive monthly gold purchase and Chinese gold ETF flows turned positive.

Global physically backed gold ETFs saw inflows three months in a row, adding US$5.5bn in August. North American and European funds led inflows while Asia experienced continued outflows. Supported by continued inflows and a higher gold price, global gold ETFs’ total AUM rose 5% to US$407bn, another month-end record. Meanwhile, holdings rebounded 53t to 3,692t.

China’s official gold reserves rose further in July, the ninth consecutive monthly purchase. Wholesale gold demand saw a modest m/m seasonal rise in July, yet they remained below the long-term average. Gold ETF flows flipped negative and gold futures’ volumes cooled.

China’s wholesale gold demand weakened further in June, ending H1 with a 18% y/y fall – bar and coin demand strength was offset by the jewellery sector weakness. A positive June concluded the strongest semi-annual Chinese gold ETF inflow ever and the PBoC announced non-stop gold purchases during H1.  

Gold has experienced a prolonged bull run in recent years. After bottoming at US$1,429/oz on 3 November 2022, the gold price has more than doubled: on 30 June 2025 it stood at US$3,287/oz, having refreshed its historical record 68 times over that period.