Ray joined the World Gold Council in early 2019, and works within the Research team as the Head of Research (Asia Pacific, ex-India) and Deputy Head of Trade Engagement (China). He previously held position with China Industrial Futures Ltd, focusing on the market analysis for major commodities classes and international macros for both individual and institutional investors.
Ray has a Bachelor’s degree in Corporate Finance from the Adelaide University in Australia, and a Master's degree of Investment from Pace University in the US.
In August, PBOC reported a 20t gold purchase, the strongest month since October 2023. Chinese gold ETFs registered healthy inflows during the month, helped by the improved gold price momentum. Gold withdrawals from the SGE fell m/m, largely due to cooling bullion investment and the ongoing gold jewellery sector weakness
China’s wholesale gold demand rebounded in June, closing a relatively subdued H1 weighed down by weakness in the jewellery sector. Despite June’s loss, Chinese gold ETFs recorded robust inflows in H1. Retail investment demand for bars and coins also remained strong during the first half. Meanwhile, the PBoC extended its gold-buying streak to 20 months in June, reporting the largest gold purchase since October 2023 and lifting its holdings to 2,346t, representing 8% of total reserves.
China’s wholesale gold demand rebounded in June, closing a relatively subdued H1 weighed down by weakness in the jewellery sector. Despite June’s loss, Chinese gold ETFs recorded robust inflows in H1. Retail investment demand for bars and coins also remained strong during the first half. Meanwhile, the PBoC extended its gold-buying streak to 20 months in June, reporting the largest gold purchase since October 2023 and lifting its holdings to 2,346t, representing 8% of total reserves.
China’s official gold holdings saw a 10t rise in May, reaching 2,332t (9% of total reserves), the largest reported increase since December 2024. Yet wholesale gold demand fell notably, dented by both seasonal weakness in the jewellery sector and cooling investment momentum – monthly gold ETF flows turned negative for the first time since last August.
Wholesale gold demand fell seasonally in April as gold jewellery consumption entered the traditional off season. Investment strength also eased with Chinese gold ETF inflows moderating. Meanwhile, the Chinese central bank added 8t of gold to its reserves, the highest in 15 months.
A decline in March narrowed gold’s Q1 gain. Wholesale gold demand rebounded notably m/m supported by seasonality. Local gold ETFs saw continued inflows in March, pushing the Q1 demand to a record high. The PBoC’s gold purchasing streak extended to 17 months in March. And gold imports during the first two months of 2026 rose.
Gold rose in USD terms but fell when priced in RMB – due mainly to the strengthening currency. Wholesale gold demand stayed relatively resilient in February, the Chinese New Year month, compared to the similar period in 2025. Local gold ETFs saw further inflows and the PBoC announced gold purchases 16 months in a row.
Slow gold supply responses to the surging price raised concerns of its sustainability. And while “easy” gold mines might be depleted gradually, reserves should stay stable. And above-ground gold stocks should – though not all accessible – also help underpin total supply’s stability. Meanwhile, large gold mine discoveries should have limited short-term impact on the gold price. And coordinated production changes remain improbable.
The local gold price kicked 2026 off with its strongest January on record. And while it pulled back sharply in late January and early February, gold bounced back since. In January, investment demand benefited from the powerful gold price rally – bullion sales at gold stores surged and Chinese gold ETFs’ holdings expanded sizably. Meanwhile, the PBoC keeps reporting gold purchases, further boosting retail investors’ interest. Gold jewellery demand also improved amid retailers’ pre-Chinese New Year holiday restocking.
The RMB gold price recorded its strongest year since the SGE’s launch in 2002. Firm prices continued to attract inflows into gold ETFs in December, culminating in their best year on record. The PBoC also extended its buying streak to 14 consecutive months. However, weakness in the gold jewellery sector – despite a seasonal uptick in December – more than offset robust investment demand, weighing on overall wholesale gold demand in 2025.
Global gold mining has been stable in recent years. Despite short-term impacts stemming from the pandemic, safety stoppages and industrial action, mined gold production averaged a near zero annual y/y change between 2018 and 2024.
The recent VAT reform weighed on China’s gold jewellery demand in November, denting gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange despite robust investment buying. Gold ETFs in China continued to attract notable inflows in the month and the PBoC reported gold purchases 13 months in a row.
China recently announced changes to the gold market value-added tax policies, effective from 1 November 2025 to 31 December 2027. Members who buy and sell gold directly on the SGE remain VAT free; meanwhile, members withdrawing physical gold and re-selling with investment purposes are not impacted, while those with non-investment purposes now face higher costs when they re-distribute.
With higher costs, gold jewellery demand in China may face some headwinds, but it may can also be an additional catalyst for innovation amidst a competitive landscape. Investment demand is not directly impacted by the policy, but we may see greater concentration of gold buying through SGE members.
