Ray joined the World Gold Council in early 2019, and works within the Research team as the Research Head, China. He previously held position with China Industrial Futures Ltd, focusing on the market analysis for major commodities classes and international macros for both individual and institutional investors.
Ray has a Bachelor’s degree in Corporate Finance from the Adelaide University in Australia, and a Master's degree of Investment from Pace University in the US.
Another exceptional month for the gold price and trade tensions with the US led to continued boom in retail investment. Meanwhile, China’s official gold holdings rose five months in a row. And wholesale demand also picked up seasonally, resulting in an improving local gold premium.
China’s official gold holdings rose four months in a row, adding another 5t in February. And Chinese gold investors bought gold ETFs at a record pace in the month, pushing both AUM and holdings to unseen levels. However, gold jewellery demand weakness, amid seasonality and the rising gold price, weighed on total wholesale gold demand in the month.
China’s wholesale gold demand sees a seasonal rebound in December yet the 2024 total remains weaker than 2023. Meanwhile, gold ETFs experienced unprecedented inflows in 2024. And China’s official gold holdings have increased two months in a row now, ending the year with reported gold purchases of 44t.
The local gold price’s unprecedent surge and amplified equity market volatilities helped Chinese gold ETFs attract their largest monthly inflow eve. China’s wholesale gold demand continued to exhibit seasonal patterns, witnessing a mild fall m/m yet remaining well below the long- term average. The stabilizing gold price, seasonality and positive impact from various stimulus may bode well for gold consumption in coming months.
Geopolitical risks have been elevated in recent years. And our analysis shows that spikes in geopolitical risk usually lead to equity market sell offs. While risk assets suffer during these periods, gold has delivered robust returns as an effective portfolio risk diversifier. And we believe gold can continue to benefit investors’ portfolios in today’s world as a geopolitical risk hedge and return enhancer following its stunning performance y-t-d.
In August, China’s wholesale gold demand saw a seasonal m/m bounce. But it remains well below the long-term average amid the record level gold price and economic uncertainties. Meanwhile, Chinese gold ETFs saw their first monthly outflow since November 2023.
In July, China’s wholesale gold demand remained weak and the local gold price premium trended down further. However, gold ETFs saw their eighth consecutive monthly inflows, pushing the total assets under management and holdings to record highs. And China’s official gold holdings remained unchanged.
In June, China’s wholesale gold demand remained weak, ending H1 with little changes compared to 2023. Chinese gold ETFs saw their seventh consecutive monthly inflow, pushing both of their assets under management and holdings to record highs. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China reported no gold reserve changes.
In May, China’s wholesale gold demand fell as gold jewellery consumption and bar and coin sales cooled. Meanwhile, the local central bank didn’t report any gold purchase during the month. But the bright spot came from the gold ETF market which extended the inflow streak to six months.
In April, China’s wholesale gold demand climbed further as strong investment demand canceled off jewellery sector weaknesses. Chinese gold ETFs registered their strongest month on record whilst the local central bank announced gold purchases for the 18th consecutive month.
In March, China’s official gold holdings rose for the 17th consecutive month and inflows into local gold ETFs continued. Meanwhile, withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange fell slightly, leading to a lower local gold price premium. Nonetheless, wholesale demand recorded the highest Q1 total since 2019.
