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Ray Jia

Ray Jia

Research Manager

World Gold Council

Ray joined the World Gold Council in early 2019, and works within the Market Intelligence Group as the China region research manager. He previous held position with China Industrial Futures Ltd, focusing on the market analysis for major commodities classes and international macros for both individual and institutional investors.

Ray has a Bachelor’s degree in Corporate Finance from the Adelaide University in Australia, and a Master degree of Investment from Pace University in US.

Ray Jia
Research Manager
World Gold Council

What does China’s economic revival mean for gold?

Gold demand in China, in particular, investment demand, has benefited from rising concerns for the economy as well as the lowered opportunity cost amid the COVID-19 outbreak and the central bank’s response to it. But with signs of a potential economic recovery emerging, can we expect gold’s attractiveness as a safe haven in China to fade? We believe that the answer is ‘No’.

Ray Jia
Research Manager
World Gold Council

Chinese New Year: what does it mean for China’s physical gold market?

On 25th January 2020, people throughout China will celebrate the start of a new year – the most important festival in the Chinese lunar calendar. This will kick off Year of the Rat and begin another rotation of the twelve zodiac signs. Most people are already in a festive mood, and, as a result, so is China’s gold market.

Ray Jia
Research Manager
World Gold Council

Takeaways from 2019 Annual Precious Metals Conference

Co-hosted by China Gold Association, World Gold Council, Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold and Jewellery Association, the 2019 Annual Precious Metals Conference was held in Shanghai on 10th and 11th December. Over 400 gold industry leaders and representatives from China and other regions participated. Here are a few key takeaways.

Ray Jia
Research Manager
World Gold Council

Stocking up for Chinese New Year drove wholesale physical gold demand in November

Summary

  • The Shanghai Gold Benchmark price (PM) extended its decline in November. The appreciating USDCNY has again made CNY-denominated gold prices weaker than the dollar gold price, resulting in another drop in local gold premium last month.
  • Driven by elevated price volatility, Au(T+D)’s trading volume was higher m-o-m. Meanwhile, the industry’s stocking ahead of the Chinese New Year’s Festival led to a higher Au9999 trading volume and gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) in November. • During the first ten months of 2019, China’s gold imports dropped by 41% y-o-y.
  • While some investors have stepped away, Chinese gold ETFs’ gold holdings stabilised around the highest level since last October.
  • The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) left its gold reserve unchanged at 1,948t in November.
Ray Jia
Research Manager
World Gold Council

China’s gold market soft in October

  • The Shanghai Gold Benchmark price fell slightly in October as the appreciating USDCNY offset the rise in US dollar-denominated gold price. This pushed the local gold price to a discount, the first in 12 months
  • Impacted by the weak performances of CNY-denominated gold prices, speculative demand dropped further. Trading volume of Au9999 continued its decline during the month on weaker physical gold demand
  • During the first ten months of 2019, China’s gold imports dropped by 41% y-o-y
  • Three new gold-backed ETFs were approved in October, raising the total number of gold-backed ETF products in China to seven
  • The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) didn’t purchase any gold in October, leaving its gold reserves at 1,948t.
Ray Jia
Research Manager
World Gold Council

Chinese gold ETFs’ AUM reached all-time high in September while physical demand remains soft

  • The Shanghai Gold Benchmark price saw a modest decline in September, with the local gold premium falling sharply due to the stabilising currency and increasing gold imports.
  • Led by the declining gold price and the soft physical demand, both Au(T+D) and Au9999’s trading volume dropped last month while loadouts from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) levelled off.
  • After hitting the lowest level since 2017 in July, gold imports to China rebounded in August.
  • The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added another 6t to its gold reserves in September. After ten consecutive purchases, the PBoC now holds 1,948t gold in its reserves.
Ray Jia
Research Manager
World Gold Council

Gold, inflation and pork in China

  • Inflation is on the rise in China, reaching 2.8% in August 2019, the highest in 18 months; leading economists expect it to rise further by the end of the year
  • African swine flu has wiped out a third of China’s pig livestock since last August, contributing substantially to the rising inflation
  • Looking back at history, when inflation rose above 3% the nominal return of the local gold price has averaged 17%