Insights

China’s official gold reserves rose further in July, the ninth consecutive monthly purchase. Wholesale gold demand saw a modest m/m seasonal rise in July, yet they remained below the long-term average. Gold ETF flows flipped negative and gold futures’ volumes cooled.

China’s wholesale gold demand weakened further in June, ending H1 with a 18% y/y fall – bar and coin demand strength was offset by the jewellery sector weakness. A positive June concluded the strongest semi-annual Chinese gold ETF inflow ever and the PBoC announced non-stop gold purchases during H1.  

The PBoC continued to add gold to its reserves while Chinese gold investment momentum cooled. And wholesale gold demand weakened m/m due mainly to seasonal impact on gold jewellery consumption and slowing bullion sales.

Continued gold price strength and the US-China trade tensions pushed Chinese gold ETF demand to a record high in April. Gold futures trading activities in Shanghai also surged to unseen levels. Wholesale demand improved and the PBoC announced another gold purchase.

Another exceptional month for the gold price and trade tensions with the US led to continued boom in retail investment. Meanwhile, China’s official gold holdings rose five months in a row. And wholesale demand also picked up seasonally, resulting in an improving local gold premium.

In this episode of Unearthed, World Gold Council’s Senior Market Strategists Joseph Cavatoni and John Reade analyse the latest trends in the global gold market, including its strong year-to-date performance, changing investor sentiment and gold ETF flows.

China’s official gold holdings rose four months in a row, adding another 5t in February. And Chinese gold investors bought gold ETFs at a record pace in the month, pushing both AUM and holdings to unseen levels. However, gold jewellery demand weakness, amid seasonality and the rising gold price, weighed on total wholesale gold demand in the month.

Gold began 2025 with vigour: the LBMA Gold Price PM and the Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price PM both saw their strongest January in years, rising by 8% and 5% respectively. 

China’s wholesale gold demand sees a seasonal rebound in December yet the 2024 total remains weaker than 2023. Meanwhile, gold ETFs experienced unprecedented inflows in 2024. And China’s official gold holdings have increased two months in a row now, ending the year with reported gold purchases of 44t.

In this episode of Unearthed, co-hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade, Senior Market Strategists for the World Gold Council, are joined by Professor Hao Zhou from Tsinghua University to dive into the shifting dynamics of China’s economy and its impact on the global gold market.

The local gold price’s unprecedent surge and amplified equity market volatilities helped Chinese gold ETFs attract their largest monthly inflow eve. China’s wholesale gold demand continued to exhibit seasonal patterns, witnessing a mild fall m/m yet remaining well below the long- term average. The stabilizing gold price, seasonality and positive impact from various stimulus may bode well for gold consumption in coming months.

China has recently announced aggressive stimuli to shore up consumer confidence and support growth. Based on our models we believe the potential improvement in GDP will benefit gold demand in China. However, gold investment appetite may face competition from other assets including equities and property as the economy recovers.

China’s wholesale gold demand rebounded seasonally in September, yet total gold withdrawals y-t-d remain weak compared to previous years. Chinese gold ETFs saw positive flows last month, pushing their y-t-d inflows to the highest ever, outpacing all other countries.

In August, China’s wholesale gold demand saw a seasonal m/m bounce. But it remains well below the long-term average amid the record level gold price and economic uncertainties. Meanwhile, Chinese gold ETFs saw their first monthly outflow since November 2023.

In July, China’s wholesale gold demand remained weak and the local gold price premium trended down further. However, gold ETFs saw their eighth consecutive monthly inflows, pushing the total assets under management and holdings to record highs. And China’s official gold holdings remained unchanged.

In June, China’s wholesale gold demand remained weak, ending H1 with little changes compared to 2023. Chinese gold ETFs saw their seventh consecutive monthly inflow, pushing both of their assets under management and holdings to record highs. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China reported no gold reserve changes.

In May, China’s wholesale gold demand fell as gold jewellery consumption and bar and coin sales cooled. Meanwhile, the local central bank didn’t report any gold purchase during the month. But the bright spot came from the gold ETF market which extended the inflow streak to six months.

In April, China’s wholesale gold demand climbed further as strong investment demand canceled off jewellery sector weaknesses. Chinese gold ETFs registered their strongest month on record whilst the local central bank announced gold purchases for the 18th consecutive month.

In March, China’s official gold holdings rose for the 17th consecutive month and inflows into local gold ETFs continued. Meanwhile, withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange fell slightly, leading to a lower local gold price premium. Nonetheless, wholesale demand recorded the highest Q1 total since 2019.

Wholesale gold demand in China was healthy during February and the local central bank reported its 16th consecutive monthly gold purchase. Meanwhile, Chinese gold ETFs continued to attract investors. Supported by steady demand, the local gold price premium stayed elevated. But gold consumption may cool in coming months due to seasonality and the record-level gold price.