Insights

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade unpack why gold has been stuck in a holding pattern, with prices largely flat after a September pullback.

Last week, Middle East tensions intensified amid attacks and continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher. President Trump also waived additional tariffs of up to 100% on major buyers of Russian energy. On the macro front, US consumer and producer inflation picked up in September, reviving expectations of further Fed tightening. Inflation also firmed in the euro area, India and China, while strong exports widened China’s trade surplus. 

Global markets faced heightened geopolitical risks and signs of slowing growth. Middle East tensions lifted energy prices, while the US eased sanctions on Russian diesel. Meanwhile, US fiscal and trade deficits widened, consumer sentiment weakened and Fed minutes were hawkish. In Europe, German activity slowed and UK services softened. In Asia, China’s holiday spending was uneven and the RBI raised rates by 25bps to 5.5%, its first hike in nearly four years. 

Geopolitical tensions and energy markets remained in focus last week, while investors also watched US data for clues on the Fed's policy path. A weaker-than-expected jobs report and stable PCE inflation reduced expectations of near-term rate hikes. Elsewhere, inflation accelerated in the Eurozone and Tokyo, China announced fresh growth-support measures and the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates. 

Central bank policy was the dominant theme last week, with the Fed and BoJ hiking and the BoE holding. At the same time, escalating tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns over oil supply disruptions, adding to inflationary pressures as inflation firmed in the Eurozone, UK, Japan and India. Meanwhile, the US economy continued to show resilience, led by strong retail sales and fewer jobless claims, while China's updates pointed to continued uneven growth, with export- and technology-led sectors remaining strong while domestic demand stayed weak. 

Last week, US-Iran tensions intensified and broadened, pushing oil prices and inflation fears higher. In the US, stronger-than-expected August inflation raised investor expectations of a Fed rate hike. Meanwhile, the ECB raised rates, Eurozone growth was revised higher, and UK economic activity exceeded expectations. In China, exports strengthened and inflation firmed, while the government announced a major recapitalization of eight banks and insurers. In Japan, wage growth accelerated. 

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade break down a volatile August for gold, with prices reaching highs of roughly $4,700 before correcting following hawkish comments from Kevin Warsh.

Stronger-than-expected US economic data dominated the week, reviving rate-hike expectations, while escalating US-Iran tensions and fresh sanctions added to geopolitical risks. US labour market and business activity data remained robust, Europe saw a rise in inflation and weaker retail sales, China's manufacturing sector remained under pressure, Japan's services sector stayed resilient despite weak consumption, and India's Q2 GDP growth of 7.8% y/y exceeded expectations.

Geopolitics intensified last week on expanded Iran sanctions and escalating trade tensions with Canada. A hawkish message from Fed chair Warsh at Jackson Hole jolted markets. On the data front: US inflation remained sticky and consumer confidence weakened, while Eurozone growth surprised to the upside. In China, industrial profit growth continued to slow. Japan's rising inflation increased chances of BOJ tightening, and India's industrial production exceeded expectations.

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade unpack gold's push toward $4,400/oz, as softer US economic data clouds the outlook for further Fed rate hikes.

Geopolitical tensions escalated last week, while economic data pointed to divergence. In the US, inflation softened; consumer demand and labor markets stayed resilient. In the Eurozone, the trade deficit widened and industrial production fell.

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts John Reade and Joe Cavatoni take stock of a gold market that has calmed after a more volatile first half of the year. 

A data light shortened week in the US put the spotlight on Fed Chairman Warsh’s first meeting and a perceived ‘hawkish pause’. Sentiment was however aided by signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran. 

The stronger than expected US employment report raised expectations of tighter monetary policy, triggering a selloff in stocks and bonds.

Last week was dominated by developments around US-Iran negotiations and strong US corporate earnings. Inflation pressures remain elevated across major economies, including Tokyo, the UK, Australia, and the US, though government subsidies helped soften the impact in some regions.

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts John Reade and Joe Cavatoni discuss recent gold demand trends.

Last week, markets focused on the Trump-Xi summit amid fading hopes of an Iran peace deal, while stronger-than-expected US inflation reinforced higher-for-longer rate expectations.

While geopolitics continued to dominate headlines last week, markets focused on strong earnings and supportive economic data.

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade sit down with Rebecca Patterson, globally respected macroeconomic investor, Vanguard board member, and Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, to unpack the fast-moving and increasingly complex global economic landscape.

The Fed, ECB, Bank of England, and BoJ all held rates steady last week, even as conflicting Middle East war headlines and sticky inflation clouded the outlook.