Insights

Last week, economic reports were mixed. In the U.S., stronger retail sales and robust corporate earnings met higher CPI inflation.

Gold extends gains in July, remains top performer with y-t-d gains of 28%. Seasonal weakness weighs on jewellery sales; investment buying gains ground.

China’s wholesale gold demand weakened further in June, ending H1 with a 18% y/y fall – bar and coin demand strength was offset by the jewellery sector weakness. A positive June concluded the strongest semi-annual Chinese gold ETF inflow ever and the PBoC announced non-stop gold purchases during H1.  

With a light week for economic data, tariff developments returned to the forefront last week. Although the tariff pause was extended, new levies, some higher than initial rates, have raised concerns.

On July 9th, WGC's Senior Market Strategist, Joe Cavatoni, led an insightful discussion reviewing the last 6 months, followed by the outlook for geopolitics and gold, with a focus on central bank demand.

In this episode of Unearthed, co-hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade, Senior Market Strategists for the World Gold Council, are joined by Amanda Krichman, Chief Operating Officer of Funds at the World Gold Council.

Gold has experienced a prolonged bull run in recent years. After bottoming at US$1,429/oz on 3 November 2022, the gold price has more than doubled: on 30 June 2025 it stood at US$3,287/oz, having refreshed its historical record 68 times over that period.

Last week, attention was centered on unexpected headline U.S. job gains and the narrowly passed budget bill, while PMI readings improved across major economies and trade policy developments continue to draw focus.

Central banks added a net 20t to global gold reserves in May, an uptick from the previous month, though overall pace has moderated slightly.

Last week saw easing geopolitical tensions and some trade policy progress. Economic data showed mixed trends: U.S. indicators soft, euro area sluggish, and the UK, Japan and India improved.

The last two decades of relaxed fiscal policies and shifts in the demand structure for treasuries have now put the US in a precarious position. Ongoing fiscal concerns will likely lead to bond market volatility, ultimately supporting the gold market as investors look for alternative safe-haven assets.

Last week global central banks showed caution with mixed policy moves: the Fed paused, signaling slower cuts on stagflation concerns, Swiss and Norwegian banks cut, while BoE and the BoJ held steady.

The June–July period typically marks the off-season for gold in India, particularly for jewellery. A recovery in demand is anticipated with the onset of the festive and auspicious buying season from mid-August.

The Israel-Iran attacks last week overshadowed progress in US-China trade talks and positive economic data. Adding to concerns, the World Bank has lowered global growth outlook for 2025.

The PBoC continued to add gold to its reserves while Chinese gold investment momentum cooled. And wholesale gold demand weakened m/m due mainly to seasonal impact on gold jewellery consumption and slowing bullion sales.

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade unpack the latest gold market trends from May, including ETF outflows and a split between institutional interest and softer retail demand in the US.

Last week, the US labor market showed some resilience; factory activity slowed in the US and China but improved in the Eurozone.

Central banks added a net 11t to global gold reserves in April, the second consecutive month of slower accumulation.

Gold is not currently classified as an HQLA under Basel III, but its performance during time of crisis rivals that of intermediate and long-term Treasuries. In this context, gold is an HQLA in all but name.

Last week, markets were dominated by a mix of tariff headlines and strong US tech earnings. Meanwhile, inflation cooled in the US and Europe but picked up in Japan.