Insights

While gold’s volatility rose in 2025, it did so from a low base and in line with other assets; gold’s vol seems to have normalized, remaining broadly in line with long-term averages.

In this year-end episode of Unearthed, Joe Cavatoni and John Reade, Senior Market Strategists at the World Gold Council, recap an extraordinary 2025 for gold, marked by more than 50 all-time highs and ending the year comfortably above US$ 4,000/oz.

The inauspicious period from mid-December to mid-January is likely to weigh on jewellery demand, while investment interest is expected to be sustained.

Last week was a busy period for central banks: the Fed cut as expected while the Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, and Swiss National Bank held rates steady. 

The recent VAT reform weighed on China’s gold jewellery demand in November, denting gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange despite robust investment buying. Gold ETFs in China continued to attract notable inflows in the month and the PBoC reported gold purchases 13 months in a row. 

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade, Senior Market Strategists at the World Gold Council, are joined by Allan Guild, Director at Hilltop Walk Consulting and long-time partner to the World Gold Council.

Last week highlighted sectoral divergence: services remained resilient while manufacturing struggled in major economies. 

Central bank demand for gold remained robust in October, totalling 53t (+36% m/m) and continuing the strong trend seen throughout the year. Buying remained concentrated among a small number of central banks, led by the National Bank of Poland which became active again during the month.

Last week’s data showed strains in the US, raising expectations of a December rate cut. In Europe, near-target inflation lowered expectations of an ECB cut while UK tax hikes weighed on growth forecasts.

Last week’s economic signals were mixed: the US posted uneven data but record corporate profits; the Eurozone maintained steady growth, but the UK economy weakened.

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts John Reade and Joseph Cavatoni, Senior Market Strategists at the World Gold Council, discuss the recent developments in the gold market, including price movements, the impact of political events in Washington, and predictions for the end of 2025.

The busy wedding season over the coming months (November–March), with a high number of anticipated weddings, is expected to support jewellery demand. Investment interest in gold is likely to persist amid broadly bullish sentiment around gold.

Supported by investment strength, wholesale gold demand in China rose m/m and y/y during October, defying the seasonal weakness. Local gold ETFs also saw notable inflows, generally tracking the gold price. Meanwhile, the PBoC reported its 12th consecutive monthly gold purchase. Looking ahead, the VAT reform in China’s gold market may insert profound impact on different sectors of local gold demand.

Last week marked the end of the longest US government shutdown, while economic updates from major economies painted a mixed picture. Meanwhile, expectations for further Fed rate cuts waned after hawkish comments from officials. 

Recently, I joined Asharq Business on Bloomberg TV to discuss the latest developments in the anticipated US-China trade agreement and its impact on gold within the financial landscape.

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade, Senior Market Strategists at the World Gold Council, are joined by Sachin Jain, CEO of the World Gold Council India, to explore the pivotal role of India in the global gold market.

Last week’s economic updates highlighted uneven global momentum. US consumer sentiment dipped close to record lows, and European central banks kept rates steady. China’s exports fell and Japan’s manufacturing slowed, whereas India’s manufacturing gained pace.

China recently announced changes to the gold market value-added tax policies, effective from 1 November 2025 to 31 December 2027. Members who buy and sell gold directly on the SGE remain VAT free; meanwhile, members withdrawing physical gold and re-selling with investment purposes are not impacted, while those with non-investment purposes now face higher costs when they re-distribute. 

With higher costs, gold jewellery demand in China may face some headwinds, but it may can also be an additional catalyst for innovation amidst a competitive landscape. Investment demand is not directly impacted by the policy, but we may see greater concentration of gold buying through SGE members.

Central banks reported 39t of net purchases in September via the IMF and other public data sources. This buying was up 78% m/m and is the highest month of reported net buying in 2025 so far. Y-t-d, central banks have reported 200t of net gold buying.*

Last week saw a thaw in US-China relations with a temporary trade agreement, alongside  divergent central bank actions. While the Fed and Bank of Canada lowered rates, the ECB and BoJ held steady.