Gold import duty was raised sharply from 6% to 15%—the steepest increase on record—alongside broader regulatory tightening to curb imports. Weak demand and ample supply have kept domestic gold prices at a significant discount to landed prices, indicating that the higher import duty has yet to be fully priced in. Historical trends indicate that higher duties tend to increase unofficial inflows, although official imports generally remain resilient. Indian gold demand in 2026 is expected to moderate, with jewellery and bar and coin demand estimated to decline by 50–60 tonnes (~10% y/y).
Wholesale gold demand fell seasonally in April as gold jewellery consumption entered the traditional off season. Investment strength also eased with Chinese gold ETF inflows moderating. Meanwhile, the Chinese central bank added 8t of gold to its reserves, the highest in 15 months.
In this episode of Unearthed, hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade sit down with Rebecca Patterson, globally respected macroeconomic investor, Vanguard board member, and Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, to unpack the fast-moving and increasingly complex global economic landscape.
A decline in March narrowed gold’s Q1 gain. Wholesale gold demand rebounded notably m/m supported by seasonality. Local gold ETFs saw continued inflows in March, pushing the Q1 demand to a record high. The PBoC’s gold purchasing streak extended to 17 months in March. And gold imports during the first two months of 2026 rose.
Central banks remain firm on gold accumulation in February, having bought a net 27t. This was a rebound from the lull we saw in January, and in line with the monthly average of 26t reported in 2025. Just two months into the year, central banks have bought 31t, a pace much slower than the same period last year (50t).
