Insights

Over history, the world has adopted the currency of the leading country for global payments. The USD is, arguably, the first global currency untethered from precious metals.

Last week was data-heavy: while the US showed mixed economic signals, there were signs of slowing activity in China.

China’s official gold reserves rose further in July, the ninth consecutive monthly purchase. Wholesale gold demand saw a modest m/m seasonal rise in July, yet they remained below the long-term average. Gold ETF flows flipped negative and gold futures’ volumes cooled.

Last week saw new tariffs announced and higher tariffs take effect. Central banks in the UK and India made cautious, diverging policy moves. 

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts John Reade and Joseph Cavatoni, Senior Market Strategists at the World Gold Council, unpack the latest macro trends and data influencing the gold market – from shifting investor sentiment and mixed US economic data, to renewed tariff tensions and policy unpredictability.

Central banks reported 22t of net purchases in June via the IMF and other public data sources. Based on available data,*demand saw a modest m/m increase for the third consecutive month. In H1, central banks reported net buying of 123t, a slight y/y decline from H1 2024.

Trade deals and tariffs, coupled with weak US labour market data, dominated sentiment last week, while both the Fed and Bank of Japan held rates steady as they monitor the impact of tariffs on prices. 

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts John Reade and Joseph Cavatoni, Senior Market Strategists at the World Gold Council, are joined by Ken Rogoff, Professor of Economics at Harvard University and former Chief Economist of the IMF.

Last week, trade deals between the US and several countries dominated headlines, boosting optimism. 

Last week, economic reports were mixed. In the U.S., stronger retail sales and robust corporate earnings met higher CPI inflation.

Gold extends gains in July, remains top performer with y-t-d gains of 28%. Seasonal weakness weighs on jewellery sales; investment buying gains ground.

China’s wholesale gold demand weakened further in June, ending H1 with a 18% y/y fall – bar and coin demand strength was offset by the jewellery sector weakness. A positive June concluded the strongest semi-annual Chinese gold ETF inflow ever and the PBoC announced non-stop gold purchases during H1.  

With a light week for economic data, tariff developments returned to the forefront last week. Although the tariff pause was extended, new levies, some higher than initial rates, have raised concerns.

On July 9th, WGC's Senior Market Strategist, Joe Cavatoni, led an insightful discussion reviewing the last 6 months, followed by the outlook for geopolitics and gold, with a focus on central bank demand.

In this episode of Unearthed, co-hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade, Senior Market Strategists for the World Gold Council, are joined by Amanda Krichman, Chief Operating Officer of Funds at the World Gold Council.

Gold has experienced a prolonged bull run in recent years. After bottoming at US$1,429/oz on 3 November 2022, the gold price has more than doubled: on 30 June 2025 it stood at US$3,287/oz, having refreshed its historical record 68 times over that period.

Last week, attention was centered on unexpected headline U.S. job gains and the narrowly passed budget bill, while PMI readings improved across major economies and trade policy developments continue to draw focus.

Central banks added a net 20t to global gold reserves in May, an uptick from the previous month, though overall pace has moderated slightly.

Last week saw easing geopolitical tensions and some trade policy progress. Economic data showed mixed trends: U.S. indicators soft, euro area sluggish, and the UK, Japan and India improved.

The last two decades of relaxed fiscal policies and shifts in the demand structure for treasuries have now put the US in a precarious position. Ongoing fiscal concerns will likely lead to bond market volatility, ultimately supporting the gold market as investors look for alternative safe-haven assets.