Geopolitical and market risks remained elevated last week, as Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher and concerns over AI spending weighed on technology stocks. Meanwhile, US economic activity remained resilient and China’s Q3 growth exceeded expectations, while euro-area business activity softened amid social unrest, and Japan saw higher inflation.
Last week, Middle East tensions intensified amid attacks and continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher. President Trump also waived additional tariffs of up to 100% on major buyers of Russian energy. On the macro front, US consumer and producer inflation picked up in September, reviving expectations of further Fed tightening. Inflation also firmed in the euro area, India and China, while strong exports widened China’s trade surplus.
Global markets faced heightened geopolitical risks and signs of slowing growth. Middle East tensions lifted energy prices, while the US eased sanctions on Russian diesel. Meanwhile, US fiscal and trade deficits widened, consumer sentiment weakened and Fed minutes were hawkish. In Europe, German activity slowed and UK services softened. In Asia, China’s holiday spending was uneven and the RBI raised rates by 25bps to 5.5%, its first hike in nearly four years.
Global central banks remain on pace with gold accumulation this August, with reported net buying totalling 39t. Large, consistent buyers of gold in 2026 showed continued activity in the month, with China taking the lead, followed by Uzbekistan and Poland.
Geopolitical tensions and energy markets remained in focus last week, while investors also watched US data for clues on the Fed's policy path. A weaker-than-expected jobs report and stable PCE inflation reduced expectations of near-term rate hikes. Elsewhere, inflation accelerated in the Eurozone and Tokyo, China announced fresh growth-support measures and the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates.
In this episode of Unearthed, hosts John Reade and Joe Cavatoni are joined by Dr. Robin Kolvenbach, CEO of Argor-Heraeus, a major precious metals refining company located in Mendrisio, Switzerland. Together they explore what responsible sourcing, traceability and sustainability mean in practice for the modern gold supply chain.
Gold has received increased attention from some pension funds as they reassess portfolio construction against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions, inflation shocks and a less reliable equity-bond correlation.
Geopolitics was in the spotlight last week. While the Trump-Xi summit resulted in a two-month extension of the US-China trade truce, the stalemate in the US-Iran conflict persisted, keeping energy prices elevated and inflation concerns in focus. Economic data presented a mixed picture across major economies: business activity strengthened in the US, Eurozone and India, but softened in Japan and the UK. Meanwhile, US labor markets continued to reflect strength.
Gold is used for much more than creating jewellery and forming bars and coins; it is widely used in the technology sector, a relatively small but important component of demand that is often overlooked. In 2025, industrial demand for gold used in electronics, dentistry and other areas totalled 323t, virtually unchanged from 2024.
Central bank policy was the dominant theme last week, with the Fed and BoJ hiking and the BoE holding. At the same time, escalating tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns over oil supply disruptions, adding to inflationary pressures as inflation firmed in the Eurozone, UK, Japan and India. Meanwhile, the US economy continued to show resilience, led by strong retail sales and fewer jobless claims, while China's updates pointed to continued uneven growth, with export- and technology-led sectors remaining strong while domestic demand stayed weak.
Gold prices surged in August before pulling back in September, while domestic market discounts widened. Although price volatility weighed on overall jewellery demand, wedding-related buying remained resilient and physical investment demand stayed steady. ETF and digital gold demand remained positive , gold futures trading hit a five-month high and imports moderated.
On 2 September, De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) announced that it had transferred approximately 86t of gold from New York and Ottawa to London. The announcement highlights a broader shift in central bank thinking on where gold reserves should be stored to balance security, accessibility and liquidity.
Last week, US-Iran tensions intensified and broadened, pushing oil prices and inflation fears higher. In the US, stronger-than-expected August inflation raised investor expectations of a Fed rate hike. Meanwhile, the ECB raised rates, Eurozone growth was revised higher, and UK economic activity exceeded expectations. In China, exports strengthened and inflation firmed, while the government announced a major recapitalization of eight banks and insurers. In Japan, wage growth accelerated.
In August, PBOC reported a 20t gold purchase, the strongest month since October 2023. Chinese gold ETFs registered healthy inflows during the month, helped by the improved gold price momentum. Gold withdrawals from the SGE fell m/m, largely due to cooling bullion investment and the ongoing gold jewellery sector weakness
In this episode of Unearthed, hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade break down a volatile August for gold, with prices reaching highs of roughly $4,700 before correcting following hawkish comments from Kevin Warsh.
Stronger-than-expected US economic data dominated the week, reviving rate-hike expectations, while escalating US-Iran tensions and fresh sanctions added to geopolitical risks. US labour market and business activity data remained robust, Europe saw a rise in inflation and weaker retail sales, China's manufacturing sector remained under pressure, Japan's services sector stayed resilient despite weak consumption, and India's Q2 GDP growth of 7.8% y/y exceeded expectations.
