Insights

Last week’s updates pointed to an uneven but resilient global economic backdrop and persistent policy uncertainty. The US economy slowed in Q4, the trade deficit widened, inflation firmed, Fed divisions emerged and the Supreme court blocked global tariffs. Europe and Japan showed improving momentum and easing price pressures, while in India activity stayed steady, though trade deficits widened sharply.

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade examine the shifting dynamics of China - the world’s most important gold market for more than a decade.

Gold prices scaled fresh highs before turning volatile and are now moving in a holding pattern. The firm price trend supported steady demand across jewellery and investment products, with gold ETFs hitting key milestones in January amid record inflows, holdings and participation. Digital gold purchases surged to new highs, RBI gold holdings edged up slightly, and imports rose, driven largely by strong investment demand

Global data last week delivered a mixed set of signals. Stronger headline job gains and sticky inflation in the US dampened prospects for near-term Fed easing, even as weak retail sales and sizeable downward payroll revisions signaled softer underlying momentum. Europe’s growth diverged with the UK stagnating and the Eurozone steady, while in Asia Japan’s real wages remained under pressure, China’s weak demand and property slump persisted, and India’s inflation climbed.

In this episode of Unearthed, Joe Cavatoni and John Reade, Senior Market Strategists at the World Gold Council, discuss the recent dynamics of the gold market, focusing on the significant price movements in January, the volatility expected in the coming months, and the influence of Asian markets on gold demand.

The local gold price kicked 2026 off with its strongest January on record. And while it pulled back sharply in late January and early February, gold bounced back since. In January, investment demand benefited from the powerful gold price rally – bullion sales at gold stores surged and Chinese gold ETFs’ holdings expanded sizably. Meanwhile, the PBoC keeps reporting gold purchases, further boosting retail investors’ interest. Gold jewellery demand also improved amid retailers’ pre-Chinese New Year holiday restocking. 

Last week’s data showed US growth holding up despite a softening labor market, improving momentum in China, and weakness in Europe and Japan.

Central banks bought 19t of gold in December 2025 via the IMF and other public data sources, bringing full year 2025 reported net purchases to 328t. This is lower than the 345t of net purchases recorded in 2024. 

Last week, central banks across developed economies held policy rates and the new Fed Chair was nominated, while economic updates were mixed. US consumer confidence weakened even as earnings beat expectations; Eurozone GDP exceeded expectations; China’s manufacturing and service declined; and India and Europe finalized a trade deal.

Last week was all about geopolitical tension over Greenland, which eased post Davos negotiations. US economic data signaled a  healthy backdrop despite elevated inflation. Europe saw steady activity, Japan held rates but with a tightening bias, China’s recovery remained uneven. 

Last week, global markets were shaped by steady US inflation, resilient consumer demand, and fresh tariff threats. Europe saw economic recovery; China’s GDP grew at 5% in 2025, matching its pre-set target; Japan called a snap election, and India saw inflation tick up and trade deficit widen. 

The gold rally continues, driven largely by global uncertainty. Domestic demand remains resilient, supported by strong investment buying, while listed jewellery companies have reported healthy revenue growth in the October–December quarter. December witnessed unprecedented inflows into Indian gold ETFs, taking overall gold demand in 2025 to a historic high.

The RMB gold price recorded its strongest year since the SGE’s launch in 2002. Firm prices continued to attract inflows into gold ETFs in December, culminating in their best year on record. The PBoC also extended its buying streak to 14 consecutive months. However, weakness in the gold jewellery sector – despite a seasonal uptick in December – more than offset robust investment demand, weighing on overall wholesale gold demand in 2025.

In this episode of Unearthed, John Reade and Joe Cavatoni, Senior Market Strategists at the World Gold Council, kick off the new year with an update on the state of the gold market, exploring the factors influencing gold prices, including geopolitical tensions and ongoing economic conditions. 

Last week’s data highlighted diverging global trends: the US saw softer labor and manufacturing but resilient services and improved sentiments; the Eurozone witnessed easing inflation and stronger retail sales; and in Asia, Japan’s consumption picked up, India’s growth outlook was upgraded, and deflation worries lingered in China.

The gold market faced significant developments throughout 2025 as participants responded to evolving drivers, including US tariff policies. After considerable uncertainty, the White House clarified that gold imported for investment purposes would be exempt from tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

Global gold mining has been stable in recent years. Despite short-term impacts stemming from the pandemic, safety stoppages and industrial action, mined gold production averaged a near zero annual y/y change between 2018 and 2024. 

Central banks bought a net 45t in November, and while down slightly from October, buying has remained elevated compared to the earlier months of this year. National Bank of Poland led net buying for the second consecutive month after October’s resurgent buying from the bank.

Last week, US data showed strong jobs and housing trends amid a widening FOMC policy divide. In the Eurozone, inflation eased while manufacturing contracted. In Asia, China’s factory activity rebounded, yet India’s PMI hit a two-year low.  

Last week saw diverging data and policy action: the ECB and Nordic banks held rates, the BoE cut, and the BoJ hiked. In the US, jobs rebounded and inflation eased, but consumer spending and housing remained tight, while China’s economic momentum slowed.