Gold prices surged in August before pulling back in September, while domestic market discounts widened. Although price volatility weighed on overall jewellery demand, wedding-related buying remained resilient and physical investment demand stayed steady. ETF and digital gold demand remained positive , gold futures trading hit a five-month high and imports moderated.
On 2 September, De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) announced that it had transferred approximately 86t of gold from New York and Ottawa to London. The announcement highlights a broader shift in central bank thinking on where gold reserves should be stored to balance security, accessibility and liquidity.
Last week, US-Iran tensions intensified and broadened, pushing oil prices and inflation fears higher. In the US, stronger-than-expected August inflation raised investor expectations of a Fed rate hike. Meanwhile, the ECB raised rates, Eurozone growth was revised higher, and UK economic activity exceeded expectations. In China, exports strengthened and inflation firmed, while the government announced a major recapitalization of eight banks and insurers. In Japan, wage growth accelerated.
In August, PBOC reported a 20t gold purchase, the strongest month since October 2023. Chinese gold ETFs registered healthy inflows during the month, helped by the improved gold price momentum. Gold withdrawals from the SGE fell m/m, largely due to cooling bullion investment and the ongoing gold jewellery sector weakness
In this episode of Unearthed, hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade break down a volatile August for gold, with prices reaching highs of roughly $4,700 before correcting following hawkish comments from Kevin Warsh.
Stronger-than-expected US economic data dominated the week, reviving rate-hike expectations, while escalating US-Iran tensions and fresh sanctions added to geopolitical risks. US labour market and business activity data remained robust, Europe saw a rise in inflation and weaker retail sales, China's manufacturing sector remained under pressure, Japan's services sector stayed resilient despite weak consumption, and India's Q2 GDP growth of 7.8% y/y exceeded expectations.
In this episode of Unearthed, hosts John Reade and Joe Cavatoni are joined by Dr. Robin Kolvenbach, CEO of Argor-Heraeus a major precious metals refining company located in Mendrisio, Switzerland. Together they unpack the drivers behind the refining industry, often the least understood link in the gold value chain.
Central banks continued their gold accumulation in July with net buying reported at 23t. Emerging markets have also continued to accumulate gold this month with China (20t) and Poland (8t) taking the lead. On a y-t-d basis, central banks reported purchases have totalled around 130t of gold. This compares to a reported ~160t which was purchased over the same period last year.
Artisanal and small scale gold mining is a significant and growing source of gold supply, but remains difficult to measure. The World Gold Council is working with partners to improve estimates of ASGM production, deepen understanding of this diverse sector, and build a more complete picture of the global gold market. Better data can also support broader efforts to enhance responsible sourcing and traceability.
Last week, markets were driven by geopolitical tensions and policy surprises. The expiry of the US-Iran ceasefire and threats of economic and military retaliation heightened geopolitical uncertainty, while the US Treasury's surprise announcement of bond buyback increases added to volatility.
Global average gold producer All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) rose by 5% q/q and 16% y/y to US$1,785/oz in Q1’26. Rising costs have become a persistent feature of the industry, with the quarter marking the 28th consecutive year-on-year increase in AISC.
In response to a relentless rise in longer-term bond yields, the US Treasury announced that they were increasing their ‘buybacks’ of longer-term Treasuries to stem the rise. Yields dropped, as did the dollar and gold rallied 3%. This is not yield-curve control (YCC) but it might be a step in that direction, as Mohamed El-Erian remarked following the announcement. Here’s our take on what it means.
India's gold market showed signs of strengthening, supported by recovering jewellery demand, steady investment demand, increased futures trading activity, and a rebound in imports. These developments point to improving conditions ahead of the festive season.
Last week, global economic updates delivered a blend of signals, while US-Iran talks showed little progress. In the US, subdued inflation, weak retail sales and softer consumer sentiment reduced expectations of near-term rate hikes. In the Eurozone, Q2 growth surprised to the upside and inflation remained contained. Meanwhile, deflation concerns resurfaced in China, while inflation stayed elevated in both Japan and India.
China’s wholesale gold demand rebounded in June, closing a relatively subdued H1 weighed down by weakness in the jewellery sector. Despite June’s loss, Chinese gold ETFs recorded robust inflows in H1. Retail investment demand for bars and coins also remained strong during the first half. Meanwhile, the PBoC extended its gold-buying streak to 20 months in June, reporting the largest gold purchase since October 2023 and lifting its holdings to 2,346t, representing 8% of total reserves.
Geopolitical concerns eased as talks on access through the Strait of Hormuz continued. Economic updates were uneven across major economies: in the US, resilient business activity and strong corporate earnings contrasted with a cooling labour market; Eurozone manufacturing improved; China’s exports stayed strong even as domestic activity moderated; Japan’s consumer spending weakened further; and in India, the RBI kept rates unchanged while business activity moderated.
Central banks bought 51t of gold in June with Poland and China continuing to lead gold accumulation. Buyers for the month included Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Jordan, Czech Republic, Ghana and Georgia, while net sellers this month were Russia and Turkey.
Last week was marked by shifting monetary policy expectations, fragile geopolitical conditions in the Middle East, and volatility across equity and currency markets. The Fed, BoE, and BoJ all held rates amid dissenting votes.
