Insights

Last week’s data highlighted diverging global trends: the US saw softer labor and manufacturing but resilient services and improved sentiments; the Eurozone witnessed easing inflation and stronger retail sales; and in Asia, Japan’s consumption picked up, India’s growth outlook was upgraded, and deflation worries lingered in China.

The gold market faced significant developments throughout 2025 as participants responded to evolving drivers, including US tariff policies. After considerable uncertainty, the White House clarified that gold imported for investment purposes would be exempt from tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

Global gold mining has been stable in recent years. Despite short-term impacts stemming from the pandemic, safety stoppages and industrial action, mined gold production averaged a near zero annual y/y change between 2018 and 2024. 

Central banks bought a net 45t in November, and while down slightly from October, buying has remained elevated compared to the earlier months of this year. National Bank of Poland led net buying for the second consecutive month after October’s resurgent buying from the bank.

Last week, US data showed strong jobs and housing trends amid a widening FOMC policy divide. In the Eurozone, inflation eased while manufacturing contracted. In Asia, China’s factory activity rebounded, yet India’s PMI hit a two-year low.  

Last week saw diverging data and policy action: the ECB and Nordic banks held rates, the BoE cut, and the BoJ hiked. In the US, jobs rebounded and inflation eased, but consumer spending and housing remained tight, while China’s economic momentum slowed. 

While gold’s volatility rose in 2025, it did so from a low base and in line with other assets; gold’s vol seems to have normalized, remaining broadly in line with long-term averages.

In this year-end episode of Unearthed, Joe Cavatoni and John Reade, Senior Market Strategists at the World Gold Council, recap an extraordinary 2025 for gold, marked by more than 50 all-time highs and ending the year comfortably above US$ 4,000/oz.

The inauspicious period from mid-December to mid-January is likely to weigh on jewellery demand, while investment interest is expected to be sustained.

Last week was a busy period for central banks: the Fed cut as expected while the Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, and Swiss National Bank held rates steady. 

The recent VAT reform weighed on China’s gold jewellery demand in November, denting gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange despite robust investment buying. Gold ETFs in China continued to attract notable inflows in the month and the PBoC reported gold purchases 13 months in a row. 

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade, Senior Market Strategists at the World Gold Council, are joined by Allan Guild, Director at Hilltop Walk Consulting and long-time partner to the World Gold Council.

Last week highlighted sectoral divergence: services remained resilient while manufacturing struggled in major economies. 

Central bank demand for gold remained robust in October, totalling 53t (+36% m/m) and continuing the strong trend seen throughout the year. Buying remained concentrated among a small number of central banks, led by the National Bank of Poland which became active again during the month.

Last week’s data showed strains in the US, raising expectations of a December rate cut. In Europe, near-target inflation lowered expectations of an ECB cut while UK tax hikes weighed on growth forecasts.

Last week’s economic signals were mixed: the US posted uneven data but record corporate profits; the Eurozone maintained steady growth, but the UK economy weakened.

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts John Reade and Joseph Cavatoni, Senior Market Strategists at the World Gold Council, discuss the recent developments in the gold market, including price movements, the impact of political events in Washington, and predictions for the end of 2025.

The busy wedding season over the coming months (November–March), with a high number of anticipated weddings, is expected to support jewellery demand. Investment interest in gold is likely to persist amid broadly bullish sentiment around gold.

Supported by investment strength, wholesale gold demand in China rose m/m and y/y during October, defying the seasonal weakness. Local gold ETFs also saw notable inflows, generally tracking the gold price. Meanwhile, the PBoC reported its 12th consecutive monthly gold purchase. Looking ahead, the VAT reform in China’s gold market may insert profound impact on different sectors of local gold demand.

Last week marked the end of the longest US government shutdown, while economic updates from major economies painted a mixed picture. Meanwhile, expectations for further Fed rate cuts waned after hawkish comments from officials.