Insights

Following June's sharp price decline, gold prices have broadly stabilised in July. While overall consumer demand remained subdued, lower prices supported jewellery purchases, ETF inflows and digital gold demand. At the same time, bar and coin demand softened, and gold imports declined further.

China’s wholesale gold demand rebounded in June, closing a relatively subdued H1 weighed down by weakness in the jewellery sector. Despite June’s loss, Chinese gold ETFs recorded robust inflows in H1. Retail investment demand for bars and coins also remained strong during the first half. Meanwhile, the PBoC extended its gold-buying streak to 20 months in June, reporting the largest gold purchase since October 2023 and lifting its holdings to 2,346t, representing 8% of total reserves.

Geopolitics resurfaced last week as the US-Iran ceasefire came under strain. US data pointed to softer services activity, a wider trade deficit and hawkish Fed messaging. 

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts John Reade and Joe Cavatoni take stock of a gold market that has calmed after a more volatile first half of the year. 

Economic updates were at the fore last week. In the US, weak jobs data and softer manufacturing activity reduced expectations of near-term Fed tightening.

Central banks were back in buying mode in May – and with a little more spring in their step. Based on the latest reported data, official gold reserves increased by a net 41t during the month, with purchases once again concentrated among a familiar cast of buyers.

The past week saw US‑Iran tensions ease following peace talks, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resuming. 

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts John Reade and Joe Cavatoni discuss the findings of the newly released Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026 and examine the recent gold price.

A data light shortened week in the US put the spotlight on Fed Chairman Warsh’s first meeting and a perceived ‘hawkish pause’. Sentiment was however aided by signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran. 

India’s gold market cooled in May as higher duties, elevated domestic prices and seasonal softness weighed on demand. Physical buying softened across jewellery, bars and coins, while imports fell from the previous month. ETF investors booked profits after the price rally following the duty hike, resulting in record May outflows before inflows resumed in June; digital gold buying also slowed, though it remained above average.

The past week was marked by optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement and a historic mega IPO. On the macro front, headline inflation accelerated across major economies. 

China’s official gold holdings saw a 10t rise in May, reaching 2,332t (9% of total reserves), the largest reported increase since December 2024. Yet wholesale gold demand fell notably, dented by both seasonal weakness in the jewellery sector and cooling investment momentum – monthly gold ETF flows turned negative for the first time since last August.

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts John Reade and Joe Cavatoni are joined by Nicky Shiels, Head of Research and Metal Strategy at MKS PAMP – one of the world's leading precious metals refiners and trading houses.

The stronger than expected US employment report raised expectations of tighter monetary policy, triggering a selloff in stocks and bonds.

Central banks resumed net gold purchases in April, having bought 17t. This was a rebound from the sizeable net sales reported in March. Poland remained be the top buyer in the month (14t), while China intensified its pace of purchases: its 8t net purchase is the highest since December 2024 and extends its current buying run to 18 consecutive months. The Czech Republic shows similar consistency in purchases, having bought 3t in April, its 38th consecutive monthly purchase. Meanwhile, Russia continues its sales streak this month (6t), with y-t-d sales of 22t.

Last week was dominated by developments around US-Iran negotiations and strong US corporate earnings. Inflation pressures remain elevated across major economies, including Tokyo, the UK, Australia, and the US, though government subsidies helped soften the impact in some regions.

Last week, investors monitored US-Iran peace negotiations amid mixed global economic data. In the US, manufacturing and labour markets remained resilient, although consumer sentiment fell to a record low and inflation expectations increased.

Gold import duty was raised sharply from 6% to 15%—the steepest increase on record—alongside broader regulatory tightening to curb imports. Weak demand and ample supply have kept domestic gold prices at a significant discount to landed prices, indicating that the higher import duty has yet to be fully priced in. Historical trends indicate that higher duties tend to increase unofficial inflows, although official imports generally remain resilient. Indian gold demand in 2026 is expected to moderate, with jewellery and bar and coin demand estimated to decline by 50–60 tonnes (~10% y/y).

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts John Reade and Joe Cavatoni discuss recent gold demand trends.

Last week, markets focused on the Trump-Xi summit amid fading hopes of an Iran peace deal, while stronger-than-expected US inflation reinforced higher-for-longer rate expectations.