Insights

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade break down a volatile August for gold, with prices reaching highs of roughly $4,700 before correcting following hawkish comments from Kevin Warsh.

Stronger-than-expected US economic data dominated the week, reviving rate-hike expectations, while escalating US-Iran tensions and fresh sanctions added to geopolitical risks. US labour market and business activity data remained robust, Europe saw a rise in inflation and weaker retail sales, China's manufacturing sector remained under pressure, Japan's services sector stayed resilient despite weak consumption, and India's Q2 GDP growth of 7.8% y/y exceeded expectations.

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts John Reade and Joe Cavatoni are joined by Dr. Robin Kolvenbach, CEO of Argor-Heraeus a major precious metals refining company located in Mendrisio, Switzerland. Together they unpack the drivers behind the refining industry, often the least understood link in the gold value chain. 

Central banks continued their gold accumulation in July with net buying reported at 23t. Emerging markets have also continued to accumulate gold this month with China (20t) and Poland (8t) taking the lead. On a y-t-d basis, central banks reported purchases have totalled around 130t of gold. This compares to a reported ~160t which was purchased over the same period last year.

Geopolitics intensified last week on expanded Iran sanctions and escalating trade tensions with Canada. A hawkish message from Fed chair Warsh at Jackson Hole jolted markets. On the data front: US inflation remained sticky and consumer confidence weakened, while Eurozone growth surprised to the upside. In China, industrial profit growth continued to slow. Japan's rising inflation increased chances of BOJ tightening, and India's industrial production exceeded expectations.

Last week, markets were driven by geopolitical tensions and policy surprises. The expiry of the US-Iran ceasefire and threats of economic and military retaliation heightened geopolitical uncertainty, while the US Treasury's surprise announcement of bond buyback increases added to volatility. 

Global average gold producer All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) rose by 5% q/q and 16% y/y to US$1,785/oz in Q1’26. Rising costs have become a persistent feature of the industry, with the quarter marking the 28th consecutive year-on-year increase in AISC.

In response to a relentless rise in longer-term bond yields, the US Treasury announced that they were increasing their ‘buybacks’ of longer-term Treasuries to stem the rise. Yields dropped, as did the dollar and gold rallied 3%. This is not yield-curve control (YCC) but it might be a step in that direction, as Mohamed El-Erian remarked following the announcement. Here’s our take on what it means.

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade unpack gold's push toward $4,400/oz, as softer US economic data clouds the outlook for further Fed rate hikes.

India's gold market showed signs of strengthening, supported by recovering jewellery demand, steady investment demand, increased futures trading activity, and a rebound in imports. These developments  point to improving conditions ahead of the festive season.

Last week, global economic updates delivered a blend of signals, while US-Iran talks showed little progress. In the US, subdued inflation, weak retail sales and softer consumer sentiment reduced expectations of near-term rate hikes. In the Eurozone, Q2 growth surprised to the upside and inflation remained contained. Meanwhile, deflation concerns resurfaced in China, while inflation stayed elevated in both Japan and India. 

China’s wholesale gold demand rebounded in June, closing a relatively subdued H1 weighed down by weakness in the jewellery sector. Despite June’s loss, Chinese gold ETFs recorded robust inflows in H1. Retail investment demand for bars and coins also remained strong during the first half. Meanwhile, the PBoC extended its gold-buying streak to 20 months in June, reporting the largest gold purchase since October 2023 and lifting its holdings to 2,346t, representing 8% of total reserves.

Geopolitical concerns eased as talks on access through the Strait of Hormuz continued.  Economic updates were uneven across major economies: in the US, resilient business activity and strong corporate earnings contrasted with a cooling labour market; Eurozone manufacturing improved; China’s exports stayed strong even as domestic activity moderated; Japan’s consumer spending weakened further; and in India, the RBI kept rates unchanged while business activity moderated.  

Central banks bought 51t of gold in June with Poland and China continuing to lead gold accumulation. Buyers for the month included Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Jordan, Czech Republic, Ghana and Georgia, while net sellers this month were Russia and Turkey.

Last week was marked by shifting monetary policy expectations, fragile geopolitical conditions in the Middle East, and volatility across equity and currency markets. The Fed, BoE, and BoJ all held rates amid dissenting votes.

Geopolitical tensions re-escalated last week as the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz intensified (though paused late on Friday) and the US unveiled fresh tariffs.

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade examine how scientific innovation is strengthening transparency across the global gold supply chain.

Geopolitical tensions escalated last week, while economic data pointed to divergence. In the US, inflation softened; consumer demand and labor markets stayed resilient. In the Eurozone, the trade deficit widened and industrial production fell.

Following June's sharp price decline, gold prices have broadly stabilised in July. While overall consumer demand remained subdued, lower prices supported jewellery purchases, ETF inflows and digital gold demand. At the same time, bar and coin demand softened, and gold imports declined further.