Insights

Stronger-than-expected US economic data dominated the week, reviving rate-hike expectations, while escalating US-Iran tensions and fresh sanctions added to geopolitical risks. US labour market and business activity data remained robust, Europe saw a rise in inflation and weaker retail sales, China's manufacturing sector remained under pressure, Japan's services sector stayed resilient despite weak consumption, and India's Q2 GDP growth of 7.8% y/y exceeded expectations.

Central banks continued their gold accumulation in July with net buying reported at 23t. Emerging markets have also continued to accumulate gold this month with China (20t) and Poland (8t) taking the lead. On a y-t-d basis, central banks reported purchases have totalled around 130t of gold. This compares to a reported ~160t which was purchased over the same period last year.

Last week, markets were driven by geopolitical tensions and policy surprises. The expiry of the US-Iran ceasefire and threats of economic and military retaliation heightened geopolitical uncertainty, while the US Treasury's surprise announcement of bond buyback increases added to volatility. 

In response to a relentless rise in longer-term bond yields, the US Treasury announced that they were increasing their ‘buybacks’ of longer-term Treasuries to stem the rise. Yields dropped, as did the dollar and gold rallied 3%. This is not yield-curve control (YCC) but it might be a step in that direction, as Mohamed El-Erian remarked following the announcement. Here’s our take on what it means.

Last week, global economic updates delivered a blend of signals, while US-Iran talks showed little progress. In the US, subdued inflation, weak retail sales and softer consumer sentiment reduced expectations of near-term rate hikes. In the Eurozone, Q2 growth surprised to the upside and inflation remained contained. Meanwhile, deflation concerns resurfaced in China, while inflation stayed elevated in both Japan and India. 

Central banks bought 51t of gold in June with Poland and China continuing to lead gold accumulation. Buyers for the month included Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Jordan, Czech Republic, Ghana and Georgia, while net sellers this month were Russia and Turkey.

Geopolitics resurfaced last week as the US-Iran ceasefire came under strain. US data pointed to softer services activity, a wider trade deficit and hawkish Fed messaging. 

Central banks were back in buying mode in May – and with a little more spring in their step. Based on the latest reported data, official gold reserves increased by a net 41t during the month, with purchases once again concentrated among a familiar cast of buyers.

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts John Reade and Joe Cavatoni discuss the findings of the newly released Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026 and examine the recent gold price.

Central banks resumed net gold purchases in April, having bought 17t. This was a rebound from the sizeable net sales reported in March. Poland remained be the top buyer in the month (14t), while China intensified its pace of purchases: its 8t net purchase is the highest since December 2024 and extends its current buying run to 18 consecutive months. The Czech Republic shows similar consistency in purchases, having bought 3t in April, its 38th consecutive monthly purchase. Meanwhile, Russia continues its sales streak this month (6t), with y-t-d sales of 22t.

Central banks sold 30t of gold in March with sales concentrated in a few central banks, mainly Turkey (79t) and Russia (6t). 

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade explore recent Central Bank activity in the gold market.  

Central banks remain firm on gold accumulation in February, having bought a net 27t. This was a rebound from the lull we saw in January, and in line with the monthly average of 26t reported in 2025. Just two months into the year, central banks have bought 31t, a pace much slower than the same period last year (50t).

After a strong year of buying, central banks started 2026 more cautiously: January net purchases came in at 5t, below the prior 12‑month average of 27t. Even so, with geopolitical tensions still elevated, the longer‑term appetite to add gold looks set to persist.

Central banks bought 19t of gold in December 2025 via the IMF and other public data sources, bringing full year 2025 reported net purchases to 328t. This is lower than the 345t of net purchases recorded in 2024. 

Central banks bought a net 45t in November, and while down slightly from October, buying has remained elevated compared to the earlier months of this year. National Bank of Poland led net buying for the second consecutive month after October’s resurgent buying from the bank.

Central bank demand for gold remained robust in October, totalling 53t (+36% m/m) and continuing the strong trend seen throughout the year. Buying remained concentrated among a small number of central banks, led by the National Bank of Poland which became active again during the month.

Last week’s economic updates highlighted uneven global momentum. US consumer sentiment dipped close to record lows, and European central banks kept rates steady. China’s exports fell and Japan’s manufacturing slowed, whereas India’s manufacturing gained pace.

Central banks reported 39t of net purchases in September via the IMF and other public data sources. This buying was up 78% m/m and is the highest month of reported net buying in 2025 so far. Y-t-d, central banks have reported 200t of net gold buying.*