Adam Perlaky

Adam Perlaky

Senior Analyst, Americas

World Gold Council

Adam joined the World Gold Council in 2017 as a Senior Analyst on the Research team, focusing much of his time on investment research and portfolio analysis. He works with pension funds, endowments, and other institutional clients on portfolio optimization, and presents insights on the gold market in the media, and at conferences. Previously, he was a managing director and head of ETF Research for Market Realist, a financial technology company. Before that, he was the Chief Strategist at New Albion Partners, a boutique investment brokerage firm. Adam spent over a decade as a hedge fund portfolio manager and trader with a focus on derivatives and volatility strategies.

Adam holds a B.A. from Pomona College, double majoring with distinctive honors in Economics and Psychology, and an MBA from the Yale School of Management with a concentration in Asset Management.

Yield compression and margin levels raise concerns about market risk

We’ve regularly discussed rates and inflation in 2021 as two key drivers of global markets. With lower expected future returns on fixed income, these drivers give credence to the idea that many institutional investors would need to move further out on the curve (take more risk) and/or use leverage to meet their financial obligations. Both of which now appear to be happening.

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Time to realise gold’s true volatility

The volatility of numerous assets has shifted along with the performance of gold, which has recently rebounded to nearly flat on the year. Given this shift, we consider it important to assess the current gold market conditions from a volatility and derivatives perspective, along with what technical charts are suggesting about where gold could move in the near- and long-term. We believe that regardless of an investor’s gold sentiment, the following conditions are present and create an opportunity:

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Despite last week’s selloff, market shifts could bode well for gold prices

The stock market embraced the weakest one-week performance since the financial crisis last week on the back of growing concerns of the continued spread of the coronavirus across the globe. Despite the risk off-moves, gold was lower by more than 3% last week, which is historically unusual during these types of movements. There are a few potential reasons for the weakness.

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