Weekly Markets Monitor: The China factor
Last week’s data showed US growth holding up despite a softening labor market, improving momentum in China, and weakness in Europe and Japan.
Last week’s data showed US growth holding up despite a softening labor market, improving momentum in China, and weakness in Europe and Japan.
Last week, central banks across developed economies held policy rates and the new Fed Chair was nominated, while economic updates were mixed. US consumer confidence weakened even as earnings beat expectations; Eurozone GDP exceeded expectations; China’s manufacturing and service declined; and India and Europe finalized a trade deal.
Last week was all about geopolitical tension over Greenland, which eased post Davos negotiations. US economic data signaled a healthy backdrop despite elevated inflation. Europe saw steady activity, Japan held rates but with a tightening bias, China’s recovery remained uneven.
Last week, global markets were shaped by steady US inflation, resilient consumer demand, and fresh tariff threats. Europe saw economic recovery; China’s GDP grew at 5% in 2025, matching its pre-set target; Japan called a snap election, and India saw inflation tick up and trade deficit widen.
Last week’s data highlighted diverging global trends: the US saw softer labor and manufacturing but resilient services and improved sentiments; the Eurozone witnessed easing inflation and stronger retail sales; and in Asia, Japan’s consumption picked up, India’s growth outlook was upgraded, and deflation worries lingered in China.
Last week, US data showed strong jobs and housing trends amid a widening FOMC policy divide. In the Eurozone, inflation eased while manufacturing contracted. In Asia, China’s factory activity rebounded, yet India’s PMI hit a two-year low.
Last week was a busy period for central banks: the Fed cut as expected while the Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, and Swiss National Bank held rates steady.
Last week saw new tariffs announced and higher tariffs take effect. Central banks in the UK and India made cautious, diverging policy moves.
Demand for gold from central bankers continues, with data available for February showing reported global central bank gold reserves rising by 24t. Thus far, Poland, China, Turkey, and the Czech Republic have led gold demand from emerging market central banks.
Central banks continued their strong interest for gold in January with reported net purchases of 18t. The sustained buying highlights the strategic importance of gold in official reserves, particularly as central banks navigate heightened geopolitical risks.
Central banks reported 12t of net buying in June via the IMF and other public data sources. Demand moderated during the month: monthly gross purchases of 31t were offset by gross sales of 18t.
In January, central banks reported that they increased global official gold reserves by 39t. This was more than double the (revised) December net purchases of 17t, and the eighth consecutive month of net purchases.
Having reported a return to net buying in June, the latest data shows global central banks continued to add to their gold reserves in July. Central banks reported healthy net purchases of 55t during the month.
Reported net purchases from central banks totalled 55t, the first month of sizeable global net buying since February.
As in recent months, activity from the Central Bank of Türkiye (CBRT) was pivotal to the global total.
Last week we published our updated central bank gold statistics to include data reported for June. This new information shows that central banks added a net 59t to global gold reserves during the month.
Following a strong 2021, in which central banks accumulated 463t of gold, today we’ve released the first set of central bank gold reserve data for 2022.
Global official gold reserves fell by 21.5t in November according to data released by the IMF. A sizable sale from Uzbekistan tipped the balance in what would have otherwise been a flat month.
Central banks bought 28.4t of gold in August, 9% less than in July. Leaving aside January’s 11.2t net sale, this is the lowest level of monthly net purchases so far this year.