Retail demand is gradually picking up, supported by festivals during the month and ahead of the wedding season. Official imports are expected to pick up during August on the back of improved retail demand.
While the gold price dip may have provided a short-term boost for local gold demand, we believe a sustained recovery requires reviving economic and income growth, fewer disruptions from coronavirus and more weddings.
Last week we published our updated central bank gold statistics to include data reported for June. This new information shows that central banks added a net 59t to global gold reserves during the month.
The domestic gold price declined by 0.7% during June, ending the month at Rs50,809/10g. Retail demand remained muted as the wedding season ended and sowing activity picked up with the onset of the monsoon.
The yen (JPY) has weakened significantly during the first half of 2022: it has registered an 18% depreciation against the US dollar (USD) and now the JPY/USD stands at its lowest point since 1998.
Retail demand remained strong y‑o‑y during the first three weeks of May due to robust Akshaya Tritiya sales, wedding demand and the lower base period of 2021. But demand softened during the last week of the month due to a higher gold price and fewer auspicious marriage dates.
Last week central banks stepped up their response to soaring inflation. Having been regarded as “behind the curve” in their attempts to control this issue thus far, they are now showing greater concern and resolve in bringing consumer prices down.
Gold prices fell in May. Primarily driven by negative momentum impacts as well as lower risk and uncertainty, the SHAUPM in RMB and the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD fell by 1.8% and 3.2% respectively in the month.
So far in 2022, central banks’ monthly gold reported activity has been bobbing between net purchases and sales linked to a fairly small number of banks. As such, any significant purchase or sale from those can tip the balance in a given month.
Retail investors were enthusiastic buyers of cryptocurrencies last year. A global study by Hall Partners shows that cryptos were one of the most popular investments in 2021, with 31% of respondents investing in them over the first 10 months of the year.
The international gold price declined in April, led by interest rate volatility and dollar strength. The LBMA Gold Price AM in USD fell by 0.4% and the MCX Gold Spot in rupees (INR) rose by 1% over the month.
