The US Federal Reserve has cut rates twice in recent months and the market expects more of the same, as economic conditions become increasingly uncertain in the US and across the globe. Gold has already benefited from the shift in sentiment and Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity research at BNP Paribas, believes it will continue to do so.
Gold rallied on Friday following the LBMA fix which left the fix price flat on the week and XAU higher (XAU +2%, LBMA -0.1%) as yields fell following the Fed rate cut which left the market thinking the ‘organic growth’ Powell discussed could represent future QE.
In our recently published report Gold: the most effective commodity investment, we looked at how gold is under-represented in the commodity indices investors often use to gain exposure. This can have unintended consequences on portfolio performance, especially when other commodities – such as oil – can have significantly different characteristics than gold.
Today, we released a report on gold and commodities, covering key themes including:
Gold was higher by 4% last week (XAU +3.9%, LBMA +3.9%), as US/China trade negotiations hit a snag, the US dollar fell, and rates continued to fall. Gold prices are at all-time highs in over 20 countries, having rallied 8% in the past month and 17% this year in US dollars.
The inhabitants of the UK are surrounded. There’s no escape. Brexit is everywhere you turn. News broadcasts, front pages, dinner conversations, everywhere. Over three years (and counting) since the result, Brexit uncertainty remains a persistent part of the UK way of life and at the forefront of investors’ minds.
Looking ahead we expect two macroeconomic trends to play a key role; financial market uncertainty and accommodative monetary policy will likely support gold investment demand.
