Gold implied and realized volatility fell sharply in October

Goldhub blog

Gold implied and realized volatility fell sharply in October

Adam Perlaky
Manager of Investment Research
World Gold Council

Posted:

Gold performance/technicals:

  • Gold was mixed last week (XAU +0.6%, LBMA -0.3%) ending around $1,514/oz, as the Fed delivered its expected 25 bp rate cut, and the US dollar weakened. Check out our recent Investment update: It may be time to replace bonds with gold
  • Gold remained above the $1,500 level and was also able to move above the $1,510 50-day moving average. With the recent breakout, the gold price could test the ytd highs of $1,566 in the near-term.

 

Options and volatility:

  • Implied and realized volatility fell sharply in October, with 30-day realized volatility falling from 16 to 11.8, and implied volatility falling from 14.9 to 11.1. Both numbers are effectively in the 50th percentile over the past year, and represents the recent consolidation of the gold price near $1,500/oz.
  • Call skew, (the premium paid for bullish exposure) remains near all-time highs highlighting bullish sentiment in the market.

Gold-backed ETF flows by time periods:

  • $211mn worth of inflows, primarily from the UK last week, US (-$121mn) Europe (+331mn).
  • Flows were higher by $1.9bn in October, continuing to make all-time highs in tonnage. We will release October ETF flow analysis on Thursday at 8am EST.

Liquidity:

  • COMEX net longs rose slightly 904t to 941t for a second straight week, and remain well above the long-term averages.
  • Trading volumes fell in October to $156bn a day, which is slightly above the ytd average, but 37% above the 2018 average.