Gold import duty was raised sharply from 6% to 15%—the steepest increase on record—alongside broader regulatory tightening to curb imports. Weak demand and ample supply have kept domestic gold prices at a significant discount to landed prices, indicating that the higher import duty has yet to be fully priced in. Historical trends indicate that higher duties tend to increase unofficial inflows, although official imports generally remain resilient. Indian gold demand in 2026 is expected to moderate, with jewellery and bar and coin demand estimated to decline by 50–60 tonnes (~10% y/y).
Wholesale gold demand fell seasonally in April as gold jewellery consumption entered the traditional off season. Investment strength also eased with Chinese gold ETF inflows moderating. Meanwhile, the Chinese central bank added 8t of gold to its reserves, the highest in 15 months.
In this episode of Unearthed, hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade sit down with Rebecca Patterson, globally respected macroeconomic investor, Vanguard board member, and Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, to unpack the fast-moving and increasingly complex global economic landscape.
