The June–July period typically marks the off-season for gold in India, particularly for jewellery. A recovery in demand is anticipated with the onset of the festive and auspicious buying season from mid-August.
Gold import duty was cut by more than half. Long-term capital gains tax on gold has been adjusted down and the holding period decreased. Profits on gold ETFs and mutual funds will no longer be taxed at the short-term capital gains rate if held for at least 12 months. Despite some potential short-term disruptions, we expect the combined effects of these changes to add at least 50t to gold demand in H2 2024.
The domestic gold price declined by 0.7% during June, ending the month at Rs50,809/10g. Retail demand remained muted as the wedding season ended and sowing activity picked up with the onset of the monsoon.
Retail demand remained strong y‑o‑y during the first three weeks of May due to robust Akshaya Tritiya sales, wedding demand and the lower base period of 2021. But demand softened during the last week of the month due to a higher gold price and fewer auspicious marriage dates.
Retail demand weakened as a sudden spike in the gold price resulted in the postponement of gold purchases in the second half of the month.
The domestic gold price increased by 4.1% in February m-o-m and 8.4% higher than the end of 2019. The rising gold price and higher volatility in the market lured investors towards gold ETFs.
Wedding and stable domestic gold price at ~Rs 37800/10gm helped demand in first half of December but demand tailed off after 15th December after the beginning of inauspicious period and rising gold price which jumped by 3.7% from mid-December till end of the month.
On Friday 2nd August, the Blueprint for Gold Spot Exchange in India was released at the India International Gold Convention (IIGC) in Amritsar. The report was produced by the industry steering committee, which is comprised of 27 major stakeholders of the bullion industry – both global and domestic and is chaired by the World Gold Council.
We will soon be launching two regular blog posts– monthly updates on India and China by Mukesh and Ray, our analysts in Mumbai and Shanghai. These monthly posts will provide a snapshot of the health of these two global heavyweights, which together account for around half of annual global consumer demand.
