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China’s economy is facing challenges. Gold, with its unique relationship with the Chinese stock market and the independence from China’s economy, could be an effective tool for investors.
While the possible outcomes of the three-child policy and various supporting measures remain uncertain, we believe there is a link between birth rates and gold consumption, and the details are worth analysing.
Gold demand in China, in particular, investment demand, has benefited from rising concerns for the economy as well as the lowered opportunity cost amid the COVID-19 outbreak and the central bank’s response to it. But with signs of a potential economic recovery emerging, can we expect gold’s attractiveness as a safe haven in China to fade? We believe that the answer is ‘No’.
Recent indications suggest that the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in China appears to be virtually contained. Even though there are still new imported infection cases, China’s reported local infections have remained near zero for a significant period.
On 25th January 2020, people throughout China will celebrate the start of a new year – the most important festival in the Chinese lunar calendar. This will kick off Year of the Rat and begin another rotation of the twelve zodiac signs. Most people are already in a festive mood, and, as a result, so is China’s gold market.
China’s first exchange-traded gold future’s option was listed on 20th December 2019 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). While gold options already existed in China, these were traded over-the-counter (OTC) on the OTC market platform at the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and linked to physical gold products.
We will soon be launching two regular blog posts– monthly updates on India and China by Mukesh and Ray, our analysts in Mumbai and Shanghai. These monthly posts will provide a snapshot of the health of these two global heavyweights, which together account for around half of annual global consumer demand.
Gold: Pretty sideways performance in #gold over the past few weeks, currently trading around $1283-1284/oz. https://t.co/sNhbsHzttw
