China’s local gold price premium has rocketed to previously unseen levels, reaching US$121/oz on 14 September. And August’s US$41/oz monthly average already marked a record since the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s establishment in 2002.
We’re delighted to contribute another thought-leader article published in Financial Investigator’s highly regarded magazine. In their September issue, we review the notion that whilst bonds may be en vogue, gold never goes out of style. The article supports our ongoing belief that gold has a key role to play as a strategic long-term investment and mainstay allocation within a well-diversified portfolio.
Expectations for the end of the BoJ’s negative policy rate intensified
The BoJ relaxed its yield curve control (YCC) program in late July. Governor Ueda’s first surprise move since taking the wheel: he effectively doubled the YCC’s upper limit to 1%, while keeping the policy rate unchanged at -0.1%. This led to surges in both the 10-year JGB yield and its volatility.
Gold prices quoted in USD and RMB headed in different directions in August. Major factors including rising US Treasury yields and a strong dollar weighed on the international gold price in USD. But the Chinese currency weakness, which depreciated by 2% against the dollar in the month, led to a mild increase in the RMB gold price.
Having reported a return to net buying in June, the latest data shows global central banks continued to add to their gold reserves in July. Central banks reported healthy net purchases of 55t during the month.
Amid economic uncertainty Australian investors have, so far this year, been reallocating to fixed income assets. Although currently attractive, persistent inflationary pressure can bring risks to both the growth outlook and return for these assets. Gold should be considered as a long-term strategic asset alongside bonds as it provides excellent returns in a wide range of economic scenarios.
A lot has been made of the convergence of yields for cash, bonds and equities (on an earnings yield basis), with the higher yield on offer in the cash space leading many investors to reassess their portfolio exposures.
Reported net purchases from central banks totalled 55t, the first month of sizeable global net buying since February.
As in recent months, activity from the Central Bank of Türkiye (CBRT) was pivotal to the global total.
Despite June weakness, the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD and the Shanghai Gold Benchmark PM (SHAUPM) in RMB ended the first half of 2023 higher by 5% and 9% respectively – the depreciation of RMB against the dollar over the period contributed to the significant difference.
Costs in the gold mining industry resumed their upward trajectory in the first quarter of this year. This followed a short-lived break in Q4’22, when gold miners’ average all-in sustaining costs (AISC) had fallen by 1% q/q. Prior to this, costs had risen for the past three consecutive quarters, stretching back to Q1’22.
Global central banks reported net sales of 27t in May, less than half the net sales seen in April. Excluding Türkiye’s sales, the trend in central bank buying is still in place.
Annual gold production rank in 2022 was unchanged y/y amongst the five largest gold producing nations, with China still the world's largest gold producer. Extending this to the top 20 countries, things look very different compared to 2010. But, more broadly, global gold mine production remains geographically diverse.
Gold prices failed to extend the momentum of the previous month. Factors such as a strong dollar and rising yields weighed on the USD gold price in the month. But due to a 3% depreciation in the local currency against the dollar, the SHAUPM in RMB strengthened.
Central bank gold reserves declined by 71 tonnes in April, primarily due to Turkish selling. Despite this, we expect central banks to remain net buyers in 2023, supported by their overall positive sentiment towards gold reserves.
