Insights

• Reported global central bank gold reserves, via the IMF and publicly available sources, rose by a net 77t in September
• Gross sales (1t) were dwarfed by gross purchases (78t), highlighting the strength of buying

Central banks collectively increased their gold reserves in August for the third consecutive month. They reported adding 77t to global official reserves during the month, a 38% up-tick from July’s buying. Recent buying has reinforced our confidence that the long-term trend of healthy central bank demand remains in place.

China’s local gold price premium has rocketed to previously unseen levels, reaching US$121/oz on 14 September. And August’s US$41/oz monthly average already marked a record since the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s establishment in 2002.

Expectations for the end of the BoJ’s negative policy rate intensified

The BoJ relaxed its yield curve control (YCC) program in late July. Governor Ueda’s first surprise move since taking the wheel: he effectively doubled the YCC’s upper limit to 1%, while keeping the policy rate unchanged at -0.1%. This led to surges in both the 10-year JGB yield and its volatility. 

Gold prices quoted in USD and RMB headed in different directions in August. Major factors including rising US Treasury yields and a strong dollar weighed on the international gold price in USD. But the Chinese currency weakness, which depreciated by 2% against the dollar in the month, led to a mild increase in the RMB gold price.

Having reported a return to net buying in June, the latest data shows global central banks continued to add to their gold reserves in July. Central banks reported healthy net purchases of 55t during the month.

Reported net purchases from central banks totalled 55t, the first month of sizeable global net buying since February.

As in recent months, activity from the Central Bank of Türkiye (CBRT) was pivotal to the global total.

Despite June weakness, the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD and the Shanghai Gold Benchmark PM (SHAUPM) in RMB ended the first half of 2023 higher by 5% and 9% respectively – the depreciation of RMB against the dollar over the period contributed to the significant difference.

Global central banks reported net sales of 27t in May, less than half the net sales seen in April. Excluding Türkiye’s sales, the trend in central bank buying is still in place.

Central bank gold reserves declined by 71 tonnes in April, primarily due to Turkish selling. Despite this, we expect central banks to remain net buyers in 2023, supported by their overall positive sentiment towards gold reserves.

Key highlights:

• The LBMA Gold Price AM in USD rose by 0.2% in April while the Shanghai Gold Benchmark PM (SHAUPM) in RMB saw a 0.7% gain, due mainly to a depreciating RMB against the USD 
• The average Shanghai-London gold price premium fell sharply in April amid easing local supply and demand conditions

According to the IMF, reported global central bank gold reserves remained virtually unchanged in March. Available data shows purchases almost perfectly offset sales, resulting in a net increase of 0.2 tonnes.

Record central bank gold buying last year shone a spotlight on the past, present and future of gold as a reserve asset. There are compelling reasons to expect continued buying from this sector

A spate of bank failures in March could be the first serious cracks to appear as a result of unprecedented monetary tightening. As a crisis hedge, gold is responding as expected. Read more here…

Central bank gold demand in 2023 picked up from where it left off in 2022. In January, central banks collectively added a net 31t to global gold reserves  (+16% m-o-m).

In December, central banks have reported adding a net 28t of gold to global reserves, down sharply (53%) from the previous month (60t).

Intensifying expectations of a less-hawkish US Fed bode well for international gold prices during the last month of 2022. While the SHAUPM in RMB rose 1% in December, the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD capped a 3% gain.