Central banks slide into net sales in November
Global official gold reserves fell by 21.5t in November according to data released by the IMF. A sizable sale from Uzbekistan tipped the balance in what would have otherwise been a flat month.
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Global official gold reserves fell by 21.5t in November according to data released by the IMF. A sizable sale from Uzbekistan tipped the balance in what would have otherwise been a flat month.
Central banks bought 28.4t of gold in August, 9% less than in July. Leaving aside January’s 11.2t net sale, this is the lowest level of monthly net purchases so far this year.
Today we’ve published our latest central bank statistics which now includes data for July. Central banks added a net 30.1 tonnes (t) to global official gold reserves during the month, virtually in line (+0.3%) with net purchases in June. This continues the healthy level of interest in gold we have seen from central banks so far this year.
In a move which brings it closer in line with the US approach, the European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to adopt the tolerance for inflation overshooting its target. What does this mean for European investors, who have been watching the wrangling within the ECB over the direction of monetary policy for months now?
Following a higher level of monthly net purchases in March and April, our latest data published today shows that this trend continued into May.
As Krishan Gopaul’s blog post last week pointed out, central banks have been buying gold during the first four months of 2021. Over that period, we estimate that the official sector has added 150-200 tonnes of gold.
We have written before about how, after a more inconsistent picture for central bank demand in the second half of 2020, our expectation was for continued net purchases in 2021 but at a more moderate pace than in previous record-setting years. So, how is that expectation holding up?
Last month Hungary tripled its gold reserves. The decision by the National Bank of Hungary (Magyar Nemzeti Bank, MNB) to increase its gold reserves to 94.5 tonnes, a historic high, follows a 10-fold increase in Hungary’s gold holdings in the last quarter of 2018.
In February, central banks bought a net 36 tonnes (t) of gold, almost a third higher than January’s net purchases, but 52% lower y-o-y. This brings y-t-d net purchases to 64.5t, 44% lower than the 116.1t of net purchases over the first two months of 2019.
Over the past 18 months, central banks have had a voracious appetite for gold. Alongside the impressive AUM growth in gold-backed ETFs, this has been one of the most prominent stories in the gold market. As we noted in the most recent edition of Gold Demand Trends, in H1 2019 central bank demand hit the highest level since becoming net buyers in 2010.