Insights

Gold rallied on Friday following the LBMA fix which left the fix price flat on the week and XAU higher (XAU +2%, LBMA -0.1%) as yields fell following the Fed rate cut which left the market thinking the ‘organic growth’ Powell discussed could represent future QE.

• In August, Shanghai Gold Benchmark (PM) rose 11% to 355 yuan/gram and the local gold premium peaked at a six-year high.
• While Au(T+D)’s trading volume in August surged to a new all-time high, gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) declined again last month.
• Gold imports dropped to 44t in July, the lowest since 2017.
• The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added another 6t to its gold reserves in August.

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In our recently published report Gold: the most effective commodity investment, we looked at how gold is under-represented in the commodity indices investors often use to gain exposure. This can have unintended consequences on portfolio performance, especially when other commodities – such as oil – can have significantly different characteristics than gold.

While the gold market is a complex place, full of interesting dynamics and uses, nothing quite gets people's attention like the gold price.

Today, we released a report on gold and commodities, covering key themes including:

• Why gold is not a typical commodity
• Why gold is under-represented in commodity indices (ranging from 3% to 12%) despite its clear differentiating benefits
• Why gold is the most effective commodity investment

Gold was higher by 4% last week (XAU +3.9%, LBMA +3.9%), as US/China trade negotiations hit a snag, the US dollar fell, and rates continued to fall. Gold prices are at all-time highs in over 20 countries, having rallied 8% in the past month and 17% this year in US dollars.

The inhabitants of the UK are surrounded. There’s no escape. Brexit is everywhere you turn. News broadcasts, front pages, dinner conversations, everywhere.  Over three years (and counting) since the result, Brexit uncertainty remains a persistent part of the UK way of life and at the forefront of investors’ minds. 

Looking ahead we expect two macroeconomic trends to play a key role; financial market uncertainty and accommodative monetary policy will likely support gold investment demand.

For Australian precious metals investors 21 June was a momentous day, with the price of gold topping A$2000 per ounce for the first time ever. 

 Week ending 12 July 2019

Summary

• Shanghai Gold Benchmark price hit 319.2 yuan/gram – highest level since its introduction in April 2016
• Au(T+D)’s trading volume in June reached second highest level on record – 2,062t
• The local gold premium rose sharply 
• Imports continued to slide in May, dropping to 69t
• Gold withdrawals from Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) fell again last month 
• PBOC added a further 10t to its reserves in June

We will soon be launching two regular blog posts– monthly updates on India and China by Mukesh and Ray, our analysts in Mumbai and Shanghai. These monthly posts will provide a snapshot of the health of these two global heavyweights, which together account for around half of annual global consumer demand.