Data for February shows that reported global central bank gold reserves rose by 19t, the ninth consecutive month of growth. At the same time February’s buying was 58% lower than January’s total of 45t.
In January, central banks reported that they increased global official gold reserves by 39t. This was more than double the (revised) December net purchases of 17t, and the eighth consecutive month of net purchases.
In this insightful episode hosted by John Reade and Joseph Cavatoni from the World Gold Council, guest Karim Chedid, Head of EMEA Investment Strategy for iShares and a Managing Director at BlackRock, discusses the current macroeconomic environment.
Last week, we held an investor webinar with a focus on geopolitics, macro-economics and asset allocation in 2024. Joe Cavatoni, our Market Strategist for the Americas was joined for an insightful dialogue with two seasoned investment experts.
Reported global central bank gold reserves, via the IMF and publicly available sources, rose by a net 39t in December. Gross sales (2t) were again dwarfed by gross purchases (41t), highlighting the strength of buying.*
Reported global central bank gold reserves, via the IMF and publicly available sources, rose by a net 44t in November. Gross purchases (60t) heavily outweighed gross sales (15t) as central bank demand maintained its momentum.
Central banks’ gold buying slowed in October but did nothing to alter the overall trend of robust buying that has captured the attention of gold investors. Reported global net purchases totalled 42 tonnes (t) during the month, 41% lower than September’s revised total of 72t, but still 23% above the January-September monthly average of 34t.
Central banks collectively increased their gold reserves in August for the third consecutive month. They reported adding 77t to global official reserves during the month, a 38% up-tick from July’s buying. Recent buying has reinforced our confidence that the long-term trend of healthy central bank demand remains in place.
China’s local gold price premium has rocketed to previously unseen levels, reaching US$121/oz on 14 September. And August’s US$41/oz monthly average already marked a record since the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s establishment in 2002.
Expectations for the end of the BoJ’s negative policy rate intensified
The BoJ relaxed its yield curve control (YCC) program in late July. Governor Ueda’s first surprise move since taking the wheel: he effectively doubled the YCC’s upper limit to 1%, while keeping the policy rate unchanged at -0.1%. This led to surges in both the 10-year JGB yield and its volatility.
Gold prices quoted in USD and RMB headed in different directions in August. Major factors including rising US Treasury yields and a strong dollar weighed on the international gold price in USD. But the Chinese currency weakness, which depreciated by 2% against the dollar in the month, led to a mild increase in the RMB gold price.
Having reported a return to net buying in June, the latest data shows global central banks continued to add to their gold reserves in July. Central banks reported healthy net purchases of 55t during the month.
Reported net purchases from central banks totalled 55t, the first month of sizeable global net buying since February.
As in recent months, activity from the Central Bank of Türkiye (CBRT) was pivotal to the global total.
Despite June weakness, the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD and the Shanghai Gold Benchmark PM (SHAUPM) in RMB ended the first half of 2023 higher by 5% and 9% respectively – the depreciation of RMB against the dollar over the period contributed to the significant difference.
Global central banks reported net sales of 27t in May, less than half the net sales seen in April. Excluding Türkiye’s sales, the trend in central bank buying is still in place.
Central bank gold reserves declined by 71 tonnes in April, primarily due to Turkish selling. Despite this, we expect central banks to remain net buyers in 2023, supported by their overall positive sentiment towards gold reserves.
