Insights: Posts from September 2026

Central bank policy was the dominant theme last week, with the Fed and BoJ hiking and the BoE holding. At the same time, escalating tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns over oil supply disruptions, adding to inflationary pressures as inflation firmed in the Eurozone, UK, Japan and India. Meanwhile, the US economy continued to show resilience, led by strong retail sales and fewer jobless claims, while China's updates pointed to continued uneven growth, with export- and technology-led sectors remaining strong while domestic demand stayed weak. 

Gold prices surged in August before pulling back in September, while domestic market discounts widened. Although price volatility weighed on overall jewellery demand, wedding-related buying remained resilient and physical investment demand stayed steady. ETF and digital gold demand remained positive , gold futures trading hit a five-month high and  imports moderated.

On 2 September, De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) announced that it had transferred approximately 86t of gold from New York and Ottawa to London. The announcement highlights a broader shift in central bank thinking on where gold reserves should be stored to balance security, accessibility and liquidity.

In August, PBOC reported a 20t gold purchase, the strongest month since October 2023. Chinese gold ETFs registered healthy inflows during the month, helped by the improved gold price momentum. Gold withdrawals from the SGE fell m/m, largely due to cooling bullion investment and the ongoing gold jewellery sector weakness

Last week, US-Iran tensions intensified and broadened, pushing oil prices and inflation fears higher. In the US, stronger-than-expected August inflation raised investor expectations of a Fed rate hike. Meanwhile, the ECB raised rates, Eurozone growth was revised higher, and UK economic activity exceeded expectations. In China, exports strengthened and inflation firmed, while the government announced a major recapitalization of eight banks and insurers. In Japan, wage growth accelerated. 

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade break down a volatile August for gold, with prices reaching highs of roughly $4,700 before correcting following hawkish comments from Kevin Warsh.

Stronger-than-expected US economic data dominated the week, reviving rate-hike expectations, while escalating US-Iran tensions and fresh sanctions added to geopolitical risks. US labour market and business activity data remained robust, Europe saw a rise in inflation and weaker retail sales, China's manufacturing sector remained under pressure, Japan's services sector stayed resilient despite weak consumption, and India's Q2 GDP growth of 7.8% y/y exceeded expectations.

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts John Reade and Joe Cavatoni are joined by Dr. Robin Kolvenbach, CEO of Argor-Heraeus a major precious metals refining company located in Mendrisio, Switzerland. Together they unpack the drivers behind the refining industry, often the least understood link in the gold value chain. 

Central banks continued their gold accumulation in July with net buying reported at 23t. Emerging markets have also continued to accumulate gold this month with China (20t) and Poland (8t) taking the lead. On a y-t-d basis, central banks reported purchases have totalled around 130t of gold. This compares to a reported ~160t which was purchased over the same period last year.

Geopolitics intensified last week on expanded Iran sanctions and escalating trade tensions with Canada. A hawkish message from Fed chair Warsh at Jackson Hole jolted markets. On the data front: US inflation remained sticky and consumer confidence weakened, while Eurozone growth surprised to the upside. In China, industrial profit growth continued to slow. Japan's rising inflation increased chances of BOJ tightening, and India's industrial production exceeded expectations.