Insights

The past week was marked by optimism over a potential US-Iran agreement and a historic mega IPO. On the macro front, headline inflation accelerated across major economies. 

China’s official gold holdings saw a 10t rise in May, reaching 2,332t (9% of total reserves), the largest reported increase since December 2024. Yet wholesale gold demand fell notably, dented by both seasonal weakness in the jewellery sector and cooling investment momentum – monthly gold ETF flows turned negative for the first time since last August.

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts John Reade and Joe Cavatoni are joined by Nicky Shiels, Head of Research and Metal Strategy at MKS PAMP – one of the world's leading precious metals refiners and trading houses.

The stronger than expected US employment report raised expectations of tighter monetary policy, triggering a selloff in stocks and bonds.

Central banks resumed net gold purchases in April, having bought 17t. This was a rebound from the sizeable net sales reported in March. Poland remained be the top buyer in the month (14t), while China intensified its pace of purchases: its 8t net purchase is the highest since December 2024 and extends its current buying run to 18 consecutive months. The Czech Republic shows similar consistency in purchases, having bought 3t in April, its 38th consecutive monthly purchase. Meanwhile, Russia continues its sales streak this month (6t), with y-t-d sales of 22t.

Last week was dominated by developments around US-Iran negotiations and strong US corporate earnings. Inflation pressures remain elevated across major economies, including Tokyo, the UK, Australia, and the US, though government subsidies helped soften the impact in some regions.

Last week, investors monitored US-Iran peace negotiations amid mixed global economic data. In the US, manufacturing and labour markets remained resilient, although consumer sentiment fell to a record low and inflation expectations increased.

Gold import duty was raised sharply from 6% to 15%—the steepest increase on record—alongside broader regulatory tightening to curb imports. Weak demand and ample supply have kept domestic gold prices at a significant discount to landed prices, indicating that the higher import duty has yet to be fully priced in. Historical trends indicate that higher duties tend to increase unofficial inflows, although official imports generally remain resilient. Indian gold demand in 2026 is expected to moderate, with jewellery and bar and coin demand estimated to decline by 50–60 tonnes (~10% y/y).

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts John Reade and Joe Cavatoni discuss recent gold demand trends.

Last week, markets focused on the Trump-Xi summit amid fading hopes of an Iran peace deal, while stronger-than-expected US inflation reinforced higher-for-longer rate expectations.

Wholesale gold demand fell seasonally in April as gold jewellery consumption entered the traditional off season. Investment strength also eased with Chinese gold ETF inflows moderating. Meanwhile, the Chinese central bank added 8t of gold to its reserves, the highest in 15 months.

While geopolitics continued to dominate headlines last week, markets focused on strong earnings and supportive economic data.

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade sit down with Rebecca Patterson, globally respected macroeconomic investor, Vanguard board member, and Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, to unpack the fast-moving and increasingly complex global economic landscape.

The Fed, ECB, Bank of England, and BoJ all held rates steady last week, even as conflicting Middle East war headlines and sticky inflation clouded the outlook.

Central banks sold 30t of gold in March with sales concentrated in a few central banks, mainly Turkey (79t) and Russia (6t). 

Strong US economic data and upbeat corporate earnings contrasted with weakening consumer confidence in the US and Europe last week. Uncertainties around the US–Iran conflict remained key in influencing market sentiment.

Geopolitics remained in focus last week, with signs of de-escalation between the US and Iran, boosting market sentiment. Better-than-expected economic updates across the US, Europe and China, alongside upbeat Q1 US corporate earnings further supported global markets.

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade explore recent Central Bank activity in the gold market.  

Gold prices partly recovered in April after March’s sharp decline, with domestic discounts narrowing on import curbs and supply constraints. Listed jewellers saw strong Q1 growth, driven by wedding and discretionary demand, higher ticket sizes, and expansion. March ETF inflows were hit by redemptions, though participation rose. The Reserve Bank of India kept gold reserves steady, while imports fell to a nine-month low.

Gold’s volatility has markedly increased in 2026; however, similar episodes have occurred in periods of risk with volatility usually normalising within a few months. Bid-ask spreads have also notably risen since 2024; however, barring unusually high spikes in off market hours, the gold market still offers sizable liquidity through record trading volumes and two-way market activity. Amid a visible increase in the bond-equity correlation, gold remains a valuable strategic asset and portfolio diversifier even when accounting for its higher volatility environment.