Insights

Gold’s volatility has markedly increased in 2026; however, similar episodes have occurred in periods of risk with volatility usually normalising within a few months. Bid-ask spreads have also notably risen since 2024; however, barring unusually high spikes in off market hours, the gold market still offers sizable liquidity through record trading volumes and two-way market activity. Amid a visible increase in the bond-equity correlation, gold remains a valuable strategic asset and portfolio diversifier even when accounting for its higher volatility environment.

Slow gold supply responses to the surging price raised concerns of its sustainability. And while “easy” gold mines might be depleted gradually, reserves should stay stable. And above-ground gold stocks should – though not all accessible – also help underpin total supply’s stability. Meanwhile, large gold mine discoveries should have limited short-term impact on the gold price. And coordinated production changes remain improbable.

Last week, central banks across developed economies held policy rates and the new Fed Chair was nominated, while economic updates were mixed. US consumer confidence weakened even as earnings beat expectations; Eurozone GDP exceeded expectations; China’s manufacturing and service declined; and India and Europe finalized a trade deal.

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts Joe Cavatoni and John Reade, Senior Market Strategists at the World Gold Council, are joined by Allan Guild, Director at Hilltop Walk Consulting and long-time partner to the World Gold Council.

Last week’s economic signals were mixed: the US posted uneven data but record corporate profits; the Eurozone maintained steady growth, but the UK economy weakened.

Last week’s economic updates highlighted uneven global momentum. US consumer sentiment dipped close to record lows, and European central banks kept rates steady. China’s exports fell and Japan’s manufacturing slowed, whereas India’s manufacturing gained pace.

Last week was a rollercoaster of highs and lows. Israel and Hamas agreed a peace plan, while US-China trade tensions re-escalated.

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts John Reade and Joseph Cavatoni, Senior Market Strategists at the World Gold Council, unpack the latest macro trends and data influencing the gold market – from shifting investor sentiment and mixed US economic data, to renewed tariff tensions and policy unpredictability.

The last two decades of relaxed fiscal policies and shifts in the demand structure for treasuries have now put the US in a precarious position. Ongoing fiscal concerns will likely lead to bond market volatility, ultimately supporting the gold market as investors look for alternative safe-haven assets.

In this episode of Unearthed, hosts John Reade and Joseph Cavatoni are joined by Reinhard Cluse, Chief European Economist at UBS, to explore the shifting dynamics of Europe's economy and the potential outlook for the months and years ahead. Reinhard discusses the structural challenges Europe has faced over the past decade and how these will influence the upcoming year.

Trade tensions flared up again last week amid a mixed global economic backdrop, with activities in the US, China, and India showing signs of strength, while Europe and Japan lagged. China cut rates while the US House passed a bill to extend tax cuts and spend more.

Last week, markets absorbed strong US earnings and labor data, steady BoJ policy, weak Chinese factory activity, and stronger EU growth, reflecting mixed global momentum.

Last week, market volatility continued, but signs of easing trade tensions emerged. Concerns over the Fed’s independence also eased. But the IMF downgraded global and regional growth forecasts amid trade risks.

Tariff uncertainty continued to weigh on global markets last week. Weak US data and new chip export restrictions on China added to concerns. Growth worries drove ECB rate cuts while China’s economy showed resilience in Q1.

Another exceptional month for the gold price and trade tensions with the US led to continued boom in retail investment. Meanwhile, China’s official gold holdings rose five months in a row. And wholesale demand also picked up seasonally, resulting in an improving local gold premium.

Trade tensions steered sentiment last week. Trump's temporary tariff relief boosted optimism, but mixed economic data and lingering trade uncertainty kept volatility elevated.

Last week, the US rattled global markets with unexpectedly aggressive reciprocal tariffs, prompting swift retaliation from China and potential countermeasures from others. The aggressive moves raised fears of slower growth, higher inflation, and job losses, overshadowing otherwise positive economic data.

Markets focused on trade tensions last week, as a new 25% US auto import tariff and upcoming retaliatory tariffs weighed on sentiment. Stagflation worries added to the pressure.

Gold recently crossed US$3,000/oz intraday – a headline-worthy event, but the true significance for gold lies in the broader economic trends driving its rise.

China’s official gold holdings rose four months in a row, adding another 5t in February. And Chinese gold investors bought gold ETFs at a record pace in the month, pushing both AUM and holdings to unseen levels. However, gold jewellery demand weakness, amid seasonality and the rising gold price, weighed on total wholesale gold demand in the month.