Central banks continue to accumulate gold according to the latest data available. In October – data is lagged by two months – central banks added a further net 31t of gold to international reserves (-41% m-o-m).
The domestic gold price diverged from the international gold price: the MCX Gold Spot price rose marginally by 0.2% compared to a 2% decline in the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD
Gold’s price divergence continued: the Shanghai Gold Price Benchmark PM (SHAUPM) in RMB rose by 1%, while the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD saw a 2% fall in October.
UK financial markets have gone into full-blown crisis in the last few weeks. The government’s ‘mini-budget’ announcement on the 23rd September was poorly received by global investors, leading to a sharp spike in UK government bond volatility.
Gold plays an important role in the management of reserve assets, being one of the few assets that are widely approved under the investment guidelines used by the world's central banks.
Healthy retail demand in September drove the local price briefly into premium, but market dynamics generated a discount for much of the month. Indian gold ETFs witnessed a marginal net inflow of 0.4t in September as a domestic gold price correction enticed investors back into gold
In Q2’22 costs in the gold mining industry continued rising. The average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) reached a new record high of US$1,289/oz, up 3% q/q and 18% y/y. The average industry AISC has now sequentially increased almost every quarter since Q2’20, rising by 33% over this period.
Many of the investors we talk to feel that gold’s performance should be much stronger considering multi-decade high inflation across the world
The Shanghai Gold Price Benchmark PM (SHAUPM) in RMB rose by 0.5% in August while the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD saw a 2.6% fall. The average Shanghai-London gold price spread climbed further in the month, driven by stronger demand
Central bank demand remained robust in July. Global gold reserves increased by 37t (net), below June’s 64t increase. Added to the 270 of net purchases over H1, this pushes YTD central bank demand towards the 300t mark.
Retail demand is gradually picking up, supported by festivals during the month and ahead of the wedding season. Official imports are expected to pick up during August on the back of improved retail demand.
While the gold price dip may have provided a short-term boost for local gold demand, we believe a sustained recovery requires reviving economic and income growth, fewer disruptions from coronavirus and more weddings.
Last week we published our updated central bank gold statistics to include data reported for June. This new information shows that central banks added a net 59t to global gold reserves during the month.
The domestic gold price declined by 0.7% during June, ending the month at Rs50,809/10g. Retail demand remained muted as the wedding season ended and sowing activity picked up with the onset of the monsoon.
