Ray Jia

While the gold price dip may have provided a short-term boost for local gold demand, we believe a sustained recovery requires reviving economic and income growth, fewer disruptions from coronavirus and more weddings. 

The Shanghai Gold Price Benchmark PM (SHAUPM) in RMB and LBMA Gold Price AM in USD both trended down in June. 

今年上半期に日本円は大きく値を下げ、米ドル（USD）に対して18％の下落を記録しました。円／米ドル為替レートは1998 年以来の大幅な円安となっています。

The yen (JPY) has weakened significantly during the first half of 2022: it has registered an 18% depreciation against the US dollar (USD) and now the JPY/USD stands at its lowest point since 1998.

Gold prices fell in May. Primarily driven by negative momentum impacts as well as lower risk and uncertainty, the SHAUPM in RMB and the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD fell by 1.8% and 3.2% respectively in the month.

The Shanghai Gold Price Benchmark PM (SHAUPM) in RMB rose in April while the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD saw a slight decline.

The resurgence of COVID-19 and the subsequent lockdowns in major Chinese cities since late February have made headlines. These lockdowns are leading to households spending less – especially for discretionary items – as well as saving more due to limited spending opportunities and cautious behaviour.

Gold prices extended their strength last month. The SHAUPM in RMB and the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD rose further in March, ending Q1 with a 5.2% and 5.7% gain respectively, the largest since Q2 2020.

Due to fewer working days in the month and manufacturers’ active replenishing ahead of the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) in February fell m-o-m.

The local stock market remained volatile after the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday. External uncertainties such as global equity market volatility amid central banks’ tightening expectations in main regions and adjustment in key sectors, among other factors, might be main contributors. 

China’s gold consumption boomed during the CNY holiday. A lower local gold price and freed-up travel budgets – due to COVID outbreaks in different regions – might have spurred consumer interest in gold products, especially Heritage gold jewellery and tiger-themed items.

The Chinese central bank has intensified its easing monetary policy efforts to accommodate the nation’s slowing economic growth.

The Shanghai-London gold price spread fell amid a weaker local gold price 

The LBMA Gold Price PM finished November slightly higher as declines towards the end of the month wiped off earlier rallies. While the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD – which we normally use when comparing to the Chinese local gold price ‒ increased by 0.1%, the SHAUPM in CNY saw a minor drop of 0.3%. The appreciating CNY against the dollar and a steadily rising equity market may have contributed to the underperformance of the RMB gold price.

After five consecutive monthly inflows, collective holdings in Chinese gold ETFs reached 74t (US$4bn, RMB27bn) at the end of October, the highest AUM on record in tonnage terms. We cover this and more in our monthly blog on China's gold market. 

Gold prices fell in September. The LBMA Gold Price AM in USD and the Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price (PM) in CNY declined by 4.6% and 4.3% respectively last month. The rising interest rate, outflows from global gold ETFs, and a stronger dollar all contributed to gold price weaknesses in September.