Ray Jia

The resurgence of COVID-19 and the subsequent lockdowns in major Chinese cities since late February have made headlines. These lockdowns are leading to households spending less – especially for discretionary items – as well as saving more due to limited spending opportunities and cautious behaviour.

Gold prices extended their strength last month. The SHAUPM in RMB and the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD rose further in March, ending Q1 with a 5.2% and 5.7% gain respectively, the largest since Q2 2020.

Due to fewer working days in the month and manufacturers’ active replenishing ahead of the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) in February fell m-o-m.

The local stock market remained volatile after the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday. External uncertainties such as global equity market volatility amid central banks’ tightening expectations in main regions and adjustment in key sectors, among other factors, might be main contributors. 

China’s gold consumption boomed during the CNY holiday. A lower local gold price and freed-up travel budgets – due to COVID outbreaks in different regions – might have spurred consumer interest in gold products, especially Heritage gold jewellery and tiger-themed items.

The Chinese central bank has intensified its easing monetary policy efforts to accommodate the nation’s slowing economic growth.

The Shanghai-London gold price spread fell amid a weaker local gold price 

The LBMA Gold Price PM finished November slightly higher as declines towards the end of the month wiped off earlier rallies. While the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD – which we normally use when comparing to the Chinese local gold price ‒ increased by 0.1%, the SHAUPM in CNY saw a minor drop of 0.3%. The appreciating CNY against the dollar and a steadily rising equity market may have contributed to the underperformance of the RMB gold price.

After five consecutive monthly inflows, collective holdings in Chinese gold ETFs reached 74t (US$4bn, RMB27bn) at the end of October, the highest AUM on record in tonnage terms. We cover this and more in our monthly blog on China's gold market. 

Gold prices fell in September. The LBMA Gold Price AM in USD and the Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price (PM) in CNY declined by 4.6% and 4.3% respectively last month. The rising interest rate, outflows from global gold ETFs, and a stronger dollar all contributed to gold price weaknesses in September.

China’s economy is facing challenges. Gold, with its unique relationship with the Chinese stock market and the independence from China’s economy, could be an effective tool for investors.

Explore China's gold market in August. We cover the Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price PM, wholesale physical gold demand, gold ETF inflows, impacts of the rise in COVID-19 cases and more.

Explore China's gold market in July - gold price, consumer demand, outlook and more!

While the possible outcomes of the three-child policy and various supporting measures remain uncertain, we believe there is a link between birth rates and gold consumption, and the details are worth analysing.

International gold prices fell steeply in June. The weakness in the gold price can be largely attributed to the more-hawkish-than-expected monetary-tightening signals from the US Federal Reserve’s meeting on 18 June.  But the decline in the RMB gold price was narrower than that of the USD gold price, thanks to a 1.6% depreciation in the CNY against the dollar last month. 

The Shanghai-London gold price spread again turned negative in June after being positive since early 2021, falling to -US$6.7/oz on 2 June and remaining negative most days during the month.