Ray joined the World Gold Council in early 2019, and works within the Research team as the Senior Analyst, China. He previous held position with China Industrial Futures Ltd, focusing on the market analysis for major commodities classes and international macros for both individual and institutional investors.
Ray has a Bachelor’s degree in Corporate Finance from the Adelaide University in Australia, and a Master degree of Investment from Pace University in US.
In March, China’s official gold holdings rose for the 17th consecutive month and inflows into local gold ETFs continued. Meanwhile, withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange fell slightly, leading to a lower local gold price premium. Nonetheless, wholesale demand recorded the highest Q1 total since 2019.
Wholesale gold demand in China was healthy during February and the local central bank reported its 16th consecutive monthly gold purchase. Meanwhile, Chinese gold ETFs continued to attract investors. Supported by steady demand, the local gold price premium stayed elevated. But gold consumption may cool in coming months due to seasonality and the record-level gold price.
The extended 2024 Chinese New Year’s holiday saw healthy gold consumption. Looking ahead, our model predicts stable gold jewellery demand in 2024. And gold bar and coin investment may stay above their long-term average, with some further upside potential.
During the first month of 2024, wholesale gold demand in China jumped ahead of the Chinese New Year’s holiday in mid-February, recording the strongest January ever and lifting the local gold price premium. Meanwhile, the PBoC stretched their gold buying spree to 15 months and gold ETFs in the region once again attracted inflows.
The LBMA Gold Price AM in USD and the Shanghai Gold Benchmark PM (SHAUPM) in RMB bounced higher, both recording the strongest monthly gains since March. The local gold price premium fell from its record high, possibly driven by weaker gold demand during the month.
China’s local gold price premium has rocketed to previously unseen levels, reaching US$121/oz on 14 September. And August’s US$41/oz monthly average already marked a record since the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s establishment in 2002.
日本銀行のマイナス金利政策終了が近いという観測が強まり、日本国債の変動幅と利回りがともに拡大.
日本国債は依然として、日本の投資家のポートフォリオにおける重要な戦略的資産だが、現在の状況を踏まえると、金は有効な補完資産になりうる.
ワールド ゴールド カウンシルの分析によれば、金を5％配分することにより、債券と株式に投資する日本のポートフォリオのパフォーマンスが改善する可能性がある.
Expectations for the end of the BoJ’s negative policy rate intensified
The BoJ relaxed its yield curve control (YCC) program in late July. Governor Ueda’s first surprise move since taking the wheel: he effectively doubled the YCC’s upper limit to 1%, while keeping the policy rate unchanged at -0.1%. This led to surges in both the 10-year JGB yield and its volatility.
Gold prices quoted in USD and RMB headed in different directions in August. Major factors including rising US Treasury yields and a strong dollar weighed on the international gold price in USD. But the Chinese currency weakness, which depreciated by 2% against the dollar in the month, led to a mild increase in the RMB gold price.
Despite June weakness, the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD and the Shanghai Gold Benchmark PM (SHAUPM) in RMB ended the first half of 2023 higher by 5% and 9% respectively – the depreciation of RMB against the dollar over the period contributed to the significant difference.
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[世界黄金协会]
