• Goldhub
  • Research
  • Investment Commentary

  • Latest issue

    Investment Commentary


    On Twitter: A week in review

    John Reade

    Senior Market Strategist World Gold Council


    Monday, 30th March

    Good morning. Spot #gold is just below $1620/oz on Monday morning and the bid-ask spread is about $5/oz according to Bloomberg.

     

    The differential between spot #gold and the active Comex future is about $23/oz, showing that this dislocation in these markets continues, albeit off the levels seen early last week.

     

    Beacuse of the dislocation between OTC and Comex #gold, I've been thinking a lot about Comex warehouse stocks recently. This is an interesting primer on the topic from @bullionvault: https://bullionvault.com/gold-news/comex-gold-stocks-072420136

     

    This is one chart I've reconsituted on my WFH laptop, showing total Comex #gold stocks back to 1992. As you can see, stock levels are much higehr than they were in the late 1990s, when the net spec position was predominantly short.

     

    Zooming in on the last couple of years, I will be updating this chart regularly to see whether gold gets shipped into the Comex warehouse system to take advantage of the high premium to the London OTC market. NB: 200koz has entered the system over the past week. More to come?

     

    Tuesday, 31st March

    Good morning. Gold slightly lower on Tuesday morning, last around $1615/oz, but very much within its consolidation range of the past week. OTC bid-ask spreads a little tighter today at about $2.50 according to Bloomberg.

     

    The difference between spot (OTC) #gold and the active Comex future remains wide at about $22-23/oz.

     

    Bloomberg's robots report further #gold purchases by ETFs yesterday, making that 6 days in a row.

     

    Month to date inflows into the global #gold backed ETFs show net purchases of about 138 tonnes. Slightly more into European-listed funds than into the US. All regions have seen inflows this month.

    Wednesday, 1st April

    Good morning. Wednesday's early European trading sees #gold just below $1590/oz, $20/oz above Tuesday's low. The sell-off yesterday surprised me: I'm not sure what was behind it, although some are attributing it to quarter-end rebalancing.

    Spot bid-ask spread a still-wide $3/oz.

     

    The differential between Comex #gold and the OTC price has narrowed over the past 24 hours and stands at about $10-12/oz. Compared to the widest level of $75/oz last Tuesday, the market appears to be returning to normal, although there's still some way to go.

     

    I haven't seen the automated Bloomberg estimate, as its too early, but our own database indicates further #gold inflows into the ETFs we track, taking monthly net purchases to about 146t or $8bn. This is a provisional total - our comprehensive report will be out in a few days.

     

    This may explain the narrowing of the #gold EFP. Comex total gold inventories have increased sharply over the past few days indicating that the Comex premium has attracted some physical flows, despite the logistical complications.

    Thursday, April 2

    Gold is trading just below $1590/oz on Thursday morning, more or less unchanged on the same time on Wednesday. The spot bid-ask spread has come into about $2/oz according to Bloomberg.

     

    The differential between spot #gold and the active #Comex future remains around $13/oz.

     

    Comex total #gold inventories continue to build as this chart demonstrates.

    Its been one of the quickest increases on record with 1.2 million ounces added since 25 March.

    High Comex premiums attracting metal into New York despite suppy and logistics challenges.

     

    Friday, April 3

    Good Morning. #Gold is about $1610/oz in early European trading, in the middle of the range that its been in all week. The spot bid-ask spread is about $2/oz according to Bloomberg.

     

    Comex #gold continues to command a wide premium to the loco London OTC price, currently around $18/oz this morning.

     

    Another 500koz or about 16 tonnes of #gold was received by the Comex inventory system yesterday taking the total to 10.5 million ounces.

    This is about 1.8 million ounces more than at the start of last week.

    The high Comex premium is attracting deliveries.

     

    #Gold held by exchange traded funds increased by 150koz yesterday, the ninth successive day of increase according to Bloomberg's robots.

     

    Month to date the bulk of the #gold inflow into ETF has been seen into the US-listed products. Minor outflows have been seen in Asian-domiciled products.

    Read more from John Reade on Twitter

    On Twitter: Gold market updates

    John Reade

    Senior Market Strategist World Gold Council


    Gold trading at about $1655/oz in early European hours. It had held most of the its overnight gains in Asian trading on Tuesday but then saw selling out of the gate at 8am in London.

    Spot bid-ask spread is volatile this morning $2-5/oz from what I observe on Bloomberg.

     

    For those following the #gold market closely, the widening of the EFP over the past two trading days makes for uncomfortable viewing.

    It's now around $50-55/oz based on what I can see on Bloomberg and widened yesterday as gold rallied.

     

    My best interpretation of the widening of the EFP is that appetite to take large EFP positions has diminished and that this is affecting liquidity on the Comex #gold and OTC markets.

    As specs buy Comex, this is pushing the premium to London higher.

     

    The fact that Comex volumes are roughly as low as at Christmas despite a high and rallying gold price is a big hint that something's changed, as is the wide EFP, of course.

     

    Another way of looking at this is to see aggregate open interest declining despite strength in #gold.

     

    Finally, Comex #gold stocks, which had increased by about 2 million ounces in the last week, jumped by 4.9 million ounces on Monday.

    That's the biggest one-day move I can see and takes Comex inventories to an all-time high. I'll do some more digging on this, as its a BIG move.

    Read more from John Reade on Twitter

    Gold ETF assets realised their largest ever quarterly gain in Q1 2020

    Adam Perlaky

    Former Senior Analyst, Americas World Gold Council


    Today we released our analysis on gold-backed ETF flows for the first quarter of 2020, as well as the month of March.

    Q1 2020 highlights

    • Global gold-backed ETFs (gold ETFs) and similar products added 298 tonnes(t), or net asset growth of US$23bn, across all regions in the first quarter of 2020 – the highest quarterly amount ever in absolute US dollar terms and the largest tonnage additions since 2016.
    • During the past year, gold ETFs added 659t, the highest on a rolling annual basis since the financial crisis, with assets under management (AUM) growing 57% over the same period.

     

    March highlights

    • Globally, gold ETFs added 151t – net inflows of US$8.1bn (+5%) – in March,
    • New all-time highs of holdings at 3,185t.
    • Gold ETFs continued their growth outside of the US

     

    Price performance

    • Gold price behaviour was similar to the financial crisis where capital requirements initially hurt liquid and outperforming assets like gold.
    • Much like 2008, when QE was announced, gold rallied back strongly and finished the month mostly unchanged at US$1,609/oz, as the realised volatility of gold across tenors rivalled levels last seen during the European credit crisis in 2011 and the implied volatility – or how much investors expected gold would move across tenors – reached levels last seen during the global financial crisis.

     

    Looking forward

    • Recent drivers of investment demand are expected to continue namely, widespread market uncertainty and the improved opportunity cost of holding gold as yields move lower
    • In the three years following the 2008 Lehman bankruptcy and subsequent QE, gold rallied over 600% from peak to trough and gold ETFs grew their holdings by over 100%
    • If the trend mirrors the financial crisis, we could see significant inflows in gold ETFs over the coming months, which has been the case to begin the month of April.

     

    To read the full analysis please click here

    A general look at China and its gold market in wake of COVID-19

    Ray Jia

    Head of Research (Asia Pacific, ex-India) and Deputy Head of Trade Engagement (China) World Gold Council


    Recent indications suggest that the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in China appears to be virtually contained. Even though there are still new imported infection cases, China’s reported local infections have remained near zero for a significant period. Existing confirmed cases dropped to around 2,000 on 31st March from over 80,000 in February.1 With the situation improving, more and more Chinese people have returned to work.

    Industries are resuming to production

    Most companies in China have resumed operations gradually since early March. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, around 99% of large-scale enterprises and over 76% of small- and medium-sized companies had restarted work as of 30th March.2 Furthermore, 85% of leading industrial industries in Hubei, the most severely affected province in China, have also returned to operation.3

    Although not all companies are operating at their full capacities currently, China is gradually recovering. As a result, China’s official purchasing managers’ indexes rebounded in March, showing signs of a potential speedy recovery.

     

    China’s gold mining sector is also on the path to restoring normalcy. Major Chinese gold miners’ production resumption rate averaged 93%, and over 90% of their employees returned to work as of 17th March, according to a survey conducted by China Gold Association (CGA).

    And these gold mining companies are catching up with their original production plans. First, many gold mining sites continued their operations during Chinese New Year’s holiday in late January. Second, there was no infection case reported in any of these mining sites. Third, with the gold price hovering around the highest level in nine years in March, Chinese gold mining companies went all out in resuming production. 

     

    Jewellery manufactures in Shenzhen are also recovering, albeit at a slower pace. Discussions with our trade partners indicted that jewellery manufacturing lines had been restored to 50-70% of pre-outbreak levels by mid-March. The speed of recovery in jewellery manufacturing has been impacted by the subdued jewellery demand:

    • many people are still avoiding public places such as malls and jewellery stores
    • the highest monthly average gold price since 2013
    • reduced income due to the late work resumption

    Both price and income levels are two fundamental factors driving jewellery demand as we noted in our recently published China’s gold market. Also, non-necessities’ consumption tends to be severely pressurised in such circumstances.

    The rebounding Au9999’s trading volumes, a proxy for China’s physical gold demand, also reflected the gradual recovery in China’s domestic gold supply. In March, trading volumes averaged 16 tonnes (t) per day, 114% higher m-o-m, but below 2019’s monthly average of 18t per day.

     

    China’s consumption under stimulus and online promoting

    To stimulate consumption in wake of COVID-19, the Chinese government enacted various supportive policies. Re-opening malls across the country, with strict health guidelines, is one example. Many cities also handed out e-vouchers worth billions of renminbi (RMB) to boost leisure spending such as dining and shopping.4 This contributed to the 7% rise in key retailers’ sales as of mid-March compared to mid-February, according to the Ministry of Commerce.

    While nearly all sectors in China’s economy were hampered by COVID-19 outbreak, online consumption bucked the trend. As making purchases online and waiting for deliveries are becoming many Chinese people’s daily routine, online sales’ in January and February grew by 3% y-o-y, in contrast to the 21% fall in total retail sales.5 Online channel’s importance is also rising, accounting for 22% of total retail sales as of February.

     

    Recognising the importance of online channels when the public is confined to their homes, Chinese jewellers increased their efforts in online marketing. We learnt that one of China’s leading brands was able to attract thousands of new online customers by promoting and upgrading their digital store in February. Jewellery manufactures in Shenzhen are also bringing their businesses online, helping to reduce the health risk and improving efficiency. After this pandemic, China’s gold industry will gain a much deeper understanding of on-line business models and be more digitalised.

    Investment in gold rising

    Chinese gold-backed ETF holdings have kept increasing during the COVID-19 outbreak.6 As of 31st March 2020, these ETFs’ gold holdings totalled 51.3t, 8.7t higher than day 1 of the outbreak. Uncertainties from China’s equity and commodities markets as well as concerns for the economy under COVID-19 have been the main drivers. During the same period, the gold price increased by over 5%, while CSI 300 stock index dropped by more than 12% and the RMB depreciated by more than 3.4% against US dollar.

     

    Driven by the gold price momentum and risk-hedging demand, Au(T+D)’s trading volumes, a proxy for China’s investors’ tactical positioning in the gold market, surged in March. Its trading volumes averaged 176t per day in the month, 151% greater than February and 130% higher than 2019’s average of 76t per day.

     

    Conclusion

    With imported COVID-19 infections still posing a threat, China’s output capacity and consumption will take longer to fully recover. And participants in China’s gold industry are doing their best to restore normalcy.

    The COVID-19 outbreak has dented China’s already slowing economy and shaken investors’ confidence, leading to further monetary easing policy implementation in China.7 As such, gold’s investment demand has benefited thus far, and will likely remain well-supported the longer the recovery takes.

    Footnotes

    Please visit www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202003/31/WS5e82a5aba3101282172833b7.html and www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202003/29/WS5e819c54a3101282172830be.html for more.

    Please visit www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202003/30/WS5e816712a310128217282fb9.html for more.

    Please visit www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202003/24/WS5e79cc40a310128217281a7f.html for more.

    Please visit www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202003/25/WS5e7b2050a310128217281f79.html for more.

    In 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics only published combined retail sales data in January and February.

    20th January 2020, when Dr. Zhong Nanshan publicly confirmed COVID-19 is human transmittable, is considered as day 1 of the outbreak.

    Please visit global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202003/31/WS5e8281e2a310128217283244.html for more.

    Twitter highlights

    John Reade

    Senior Market Strategist World Gold Council


    Thursday, April 30

    We released our Q1-20 GDT this morning. Large changes in the drivers of #gold demand this quarter with strong investment demand and much less consumer purchases.

    Supply down 4% too, as mine supply and recycling both hit by COVID-19 interruptions.

    Strong ETF demand was a key feature of the strength in #gold demand this quarter.

     

    #Gold jewellery demand fell to record lows in Q1-20.

    When Indians are better able to access the gold market we expect a wave of scrap supply and loans against #gold jewellery. Read more from our MD in India, @SomPR_WGC in this Reuters story.

     

    Friday, May 1

    Gold is trading at $1676/oz nearing noon in the UK on Friday, attempting to consolidate after the sell-offs seen on Thursday and Friday morning.

     

    This move in US Real yields is probably responsible for the sell-off in #gold on Thursday, mixed in with some rebalancing flows, perhaps?

     

    If it was profit-taking in #gold on Thursday, it wasn't apparent from #ETF flows, which increased modestly on the day according to Bloomberg's robots.

     

    Rounding out the month of April flows into #gold-backed ETFs, our (very) provisional numbers show 168t of net infows, mostly into US-based funds.

    We will publish our comprehensive commentary with better-verified data next week.

     

    Read more from John Reade on Twitter.

    Gold ETF inflows remained strong but not unprecedented in April

    Adam Perlaky

    Former Senior Analyst, Americas World Gold Council


    This morning we released the Global gold-backed ETF flows report for April which highlighted gold-backed ETFs (gold ETFs) had inflows for a sixth straight month.

    Highlights of the report include:

    • Gold ETF inflows of 170 tonnes(t) or US$9.3bn (+5.1%) during the month
    • New all-time holdings of 3,355t and assets under management of US$184bn
    • North America drove the bulk of global gold ETF inflows in April
    • SPDR® Gold Shares and iShares Gold Trust represented 71% of all global inflows in April
    • Gold ETF assets have grown 80% in the past year
     

    Inflows have been strong and consistent in recent months, but not unprecedented:

    • Rolling twelve-month inflows of 879t just surpassed those of 2009 and 2016, but…..
     
    • Rolling six-month inflows are less than two-thirds of the 457t of inflows in the comparable time periods of 2009 and 2016.
     

    Looking ahead:

    • So far, recent gold strength has mirrored that of the Global Financial Crisis and the impacts of the first QE
    • Central banks remain committed to supporting the economy as COVID-19 cases diminish and medical advances may help create a path toward ‘normalisation’
    • Recent GDP releases by the US and UK suggest an extremely negative impact on growth

    While gold jewellery and technology demand has been negatively impacted history suggest, investment demand strength, like ETF inflows, may offset this weakness.

    Webinar: Gold Market Trends and Outlook For Professional Investors

    World Gold Council

    The experts on gold


    As markets fluctuate and uncertainty continues, gold’s strong performance is highlighting its strategic role as both a store of value and a source of liquidity.

    With investment demand at record levels, watch this webinar with Juan Carlos Artigas, Head of Research and Adam Perlaky, Manager of Investment Research for timely insights around how gold’s portfolio attributes may help address challenges and support opportunities in the current environment and beyond.

    Topics discussed include:

    • Gold’s YTD Performance - return, correlation and liquidity analysis
    • Supply & Demand - the fundamental drivers of the price of gold
    • Market Outlook – what lies ahead for the global gold market

    Latest research

    Looking for insight and analysis on gold? Our team of experts produce market-leading research and macroeconomic commentary on gold.