Global data last week delivered a mixed set of signals. Stronger headline job gains and sticky inflation in the US dampened prospects for near-term Fed easing, even as weak retail sales and sizeable downward payroll revisions signaled softer underlying momentum. Europe’s growth diverged with the UK stagnating and the Eurozone steady, while in Asia Japan’s real wages remained under pressure, China’s weak demand and property slump persisted, and India’s inflation climbed.
Global stock markets finished the week mixed, as Treasury yields retreated, the US dollar softened, and oil prices edged lower.
The strong headline Non-farm payrolls (NFP) number for January (+130k) arrived with fanfare but heavy baggage. The 2025 change in NFP jobs was revised down by 403k. Last January’s +143k, subject to strong seasonal factors was revised to -48k, boding ill for the latest figure. Yet, the unemployment rate remains low and despite weak retail sales and a lower CPI, the Fed members have barely blinked. The market still sees two cuts in 2026 as most likely, but the tails are starting to budge with a subtle rise in three and four-cuts expectations (C.O.T.W).
Chart of the week: The tail is wagging
Market expectations for Fed Funds rate by December 2026*
*Data as of 16 February 2026. Fed funds interest rate expectations, based on 30-day Fed Funds Futures prices. Source: CME, World Gold Council
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding the LBMA Gold Price
The LBMA Gold Price is used by the World Gold Council with permission under license by ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and is subject to the restrictions set forth here (www.gold.org/terms-and-conditions).
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Last week’s updates pointed to an uneven but resilient global economic backdrop and persistent policy uncertainty. The US economy slowed in Q4, the trade deficit widened, inflation firmed, Fed divisions emerged and the Supreme court blocked global tariffs. Europe and Japan showed improving momentum and easing price pressures, while in India activity stayed steady, though trade deficits widened sharply.
Major global equity markets ended the week mostly higher, while US Treasury yields declined and the US dollar and crude oil prices strengthened.
After a couple of quiet-ish weeks, Geopolitics – stretching from the Potomac to the Persian Gulf – have started to move asset prices again. Gold gained a modest percent, but silver saw a large 9% bounce last week coinciding with COMEX futures short covering rather than fresh longs. It’s early days yet, but positioning at these levels has historically indicated positive returns 72% of the time three months later, rising to 75% after six months. Should silver start motoring, sentiment could spill over positively to gold, and perhaps vice versa (C.O.T.W).
Chart of the week: A silver lining playbook?
*Data as of 20 February 2026. Chart shows historical forward 26-week silver future price returns at various levels of COMEX silver positioning based on 52w z-scored managed money net long positions. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding the LBMA Gold Price
The LBMA Gold Price is used by the World Gold Council with permission under license by ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and is subject to the restrictions set forth here (www.gold.org/terms-and-conditions).
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Last week, global developments were marked by inflationary pressures in advanced economies, uneven growth momentum, and a sharp escalation of geo-political tensions. US price pressures remained firm despite softer activity. Europe posted mixed inflation and patchy demand, China signaled cautious domestic demand, while India’s growth stayed robust. Escalating Middle East tensions disrupted key energy and transport routes, heightening geopolitical and market risks.
Global equity markets closed mixed, benchmark US Treasuries rallied, the US dollar weakened, and oil prices moved higher.
Gold is up c.US$200 (c.4%) in under two sessions - broadly in line with its historical tendency to rise in roughly two-thirds of major geopolitical risk events, allaying any concerns that elevated prices might cap its response (C.O.T.W).
Chart of the week: Crisis hedge
*Analysis from 13 January 1985 to 20 February 2026. Chart shows the spot gold and WTI crude average and median return for weeks (14 instances) when the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) spikes by two standard deviations (full sample z-score) or more. Only the initial spike is considered with an 8-week gap. Gold returns were positive 64% of the time. Oil returns were positive 36% of the time. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding the LBMA Gold Price
The LBMA Gold Price is used by the World Gold Council with permission under license by ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and is subject to the restrictions set forth here (www.gold.org/terms-and-conditions).
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Global markets remained under pressure last week. In the US, unexpected job losses, rising unemployment and weaker retail sales pointed to softening momentum, while private creditconcerns persisted and the VIX rose. Eurozone inflation surprised on the upside amid risks from rising oil prices. Meanwhile, China set a lower 2026 growth target of 4.5–5% (vs. ~5% last year) and announced increased spending on infrastructure and public services to support growth.
Global equity markets retreated across the board, while US Treasury yields climbed, the US dollar strengthened sharply, and oil prices surged.
Oil has seen a further aggressive move higher to suggest a large “technical” base, potentially warning of a further rise (see appendix). This is not just about oil, with natural gas and fertiliser markets also at risk, putting upward pressure on global CPI and possibly complicating policy‑easing initiatives. If the shock does not dissipate then yields could rise further on hotter inflation. Currently, a G7 proposal to release crude from strategic reserves is on the cards, hoping to cushion the supply shock. (C.O.T.W)
Chart of the week: What gives: oil or yields?
*Data from 1 January 2023 to 9 March 2026. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding the LBMA Gold Price
The LBMA Gold Price is used by the World Gold Council with permission under license by ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and is subject to the restrictions set forth here (www.gold.org/terms-and-conditions).
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Mined gold production reached a record high in 2025, based on our 2025 Gold Demand Trends report (Chart 1). Global miners produced 3,672t of gold, a modest y/y increase of 1% and the highest in our data series – albeit this may be subject to revisions when more data becomes available.1 And we expect mined gold production to further increase in 2026 – at a mild pace – as operations resume at two major mines.
Chart 1: A modest increase took 2025 mined gold production to the highest in our data series
Source: Metals Focus, Refinitiv GFMS, World Gold Council
In our previous post, we explained why gold mine production typically lags the gold price and we discussed the possibility that production will plateau over the coming years. A key reason for this is that the new gold mining projects are getting harder to discover, due mainly to geopolitical instability in many prospective regions; lengthening development timelines amid protracted permitting processes for environmental and social licenses; rising capital costs; and complicated project financing in remote areas.
Based on the annual reports of major gold mining companies, the 2026 production outlook is generally cautious – most forecast declines compared to 2025. Without more discoveries, current reserves naturally deplete – perhaps at a faster pace should the gold price keep rising – which could possibly encourage production to accelerate. This has raised concerns from investors:
Are we approaching a structural shortage of mineable gold?
If not, when can a meaningful supply response be expected?
Should any major discoveries be found, will they suppress the gold price?
Could gold supply be manipulated?
In this update, we aim to provide some guidance for investors regarding these questions.
Will we eventually run out of gold?
There are two parts related to this question – the broader gold supply and mined production. Our answer to both is: not likely.
First, we are not likely to run out of gold supply. There are two major parts to supply: recycled gold and mined gold. While mined gold may be plateauing as noted previously, recycled gold supply comes from various sectors. As shown in Figure 1 below, total above-ground gold amounts to 219,891t. And because gold is virtually indestructible, almost all of it is available to come back to the market under certain market conditions. For instance, when the gold price is high, it may trigger sellbacks of gold jewellery from consumers and more industrial recycling – factors that are far more responsive to price than mined gold production.
Figure 1: The above-ground gold stock and under-ground reserves*
*End-2025 estimates from Metals Focus. Reserves are the portion of an ore deposit that can be economically extracted. For an ore deposit to be considered a reserve, numerous factors will have been assessed, such as geological, mining, processing, marketing, economic and ESG. Only once all of these have been taken into consideration and the ore is still economically viable will it be considered a reserve. Projects that have reached feasibility stage are likely to fall into this category. There are two types: proven and probable. Resources are the portion of a deposit in which companies have less geological knowledge and confidence, i.e. less drilling data and only simple economic modelling applied, or in some instances no economic modelling at all – it’s a broad category ranging from inferred, indicated to measured. Estimates for reserves and resources can vary, for example reserves are currently estimated to be ~64,000t by the US Geological Survey. Source: Metals Focus, Refinitiv GFMS, World Gold Council
Second, we are not likely to run out of gold to mine either.
Metals Focus estimates that there are 54,770t of gold reserves by the end of 2025, i.e. the portion of an ore deposit that can be economically extracted under conditions as of 2025, whereas the US Geological Survey (USGS) data estimates gold reserves to be around 64,000t.
And resources – the total potential of gold deposits based on geological evidence and sampling, including the part that is economically minable and the part that is not – are estimated to be 132,110t, based on data from Metals Focus.
There is a common misconception that proven gold reserves can only last ~15 years at the 2025 rate of production. But it is important to note that estimates of below-ground reserves have remained stable for decades even as gold is being continually mined out.
This stability is explained by several factors, which will likely continue:
Lower-grade deposits once unprofitable become economically viable – in other words, they move from resources to reserves as the gold price increases
More gold is discovered, albeit at a slower pace. When a gold deposit is discovered, sufficient reserves are drilled out to justify the project construction.2 But as some of the deposit depletes, further exploration often takes place, keeping total resources relatively stable.
Often when a mine is built and brought into production, exploration geologists start to look for near-to-mine resources (often small deposits, sometimes known as satellite deposits), that can supplement reserves.
Also, with technology advancing, better geological modelling and deeper underground mining becoming more effective, making new discoveries more viable and extending current usable supply. Theorectically, gold exists deep under earth’s crust3 and even under oceans,4 although these are not currently viable due to technological constraints or cost considerations and, in some case, due to ESG concerns.5
In conclusion, while there is a slim possibility that we run out of “easy” and “cheap” gold to mine – if all discoveries stopped, technological advancement and a price that is high enough could see gold extracted from previously unfeasible supply sources.
How would sizeable changes in mined gold production impact the gold price?
Changes to gold production are normally only reflected in changes to the price over the long term; any immediate impact will likely be mild. First, any new discovery is unlikely to be large enough to move the needle. Based on data from Metals Focus, the Muruntau mine in Uzbekistan was the largest in the world in 2024, producing 65t of gold during that year. But compared to the world total of 3,650t, it is small (Figure 2). Second, as we previously noted, any new discovery is likely to take more than a decade to be explored, permitted, built and ramped up to full production. The market will have had time to absorb the news and may gradually price in such expectations, making little impact in the short term.
Figure 2: The largest gold mine production is negligible when compared to the global total mined
Top 10 individual gold mines vs the global mined production in 2024
Source: Metals Focus, World Gold Council
From a modelling perspective, holding all else constant, QaurumSM suggests that every ~25t gold supply increase/decrease leads to a c.1% decline/rise in the gold price during the same period. But both our model and the real world function in a more complicated way. For instance, any decline in the gold price caused by a rise in mine production may lift demand for gold jewellery and industrial use, offseting the negative price impact. Furthermore, recycled gold supply may also taper off as the gold price declines, counteracting the increase in mine production. Lastly, changes that feed through each segment may not happen during the same period, further complicating the impact. It is important to note that it is the overall supply and demand conditions that collectively impact the gold price.
Is it possible for gold producers to collectively impact mined gold supply?
The answer is “probably not possible in the real world”.
First, gold supply comes from various sources, including mine production and recycling. If we assume that gold miners collectively limit production to drive up the price, recycled gold supply is likely to rise in response to the higher gold price as it often does, potentially inserting pressure on the price. With above-ground gold holdings at 219,891t, the potential for recycled gold supply is vast – although not all of it can be mobilised quickly – compared to mined gold supply.
Second, the gold mining industry is globally diverse and its concentration ratio is low. The top ten gold producers accounted for 27% of total global production. It would be difficult to persuade all gold miners to act collectively, not to mention ASGM supply, which accounted for around 20% of the global total in 2024, based on our estimate6; these ASGM sources are even less likely to be responsive to attempts to constrain production. Lastly, monopolistic actions, such as co-ordinating production cuts across the gold industry, are illegal in many jurisdictions.7
Chart 2: The gold mining industry is not particularly concentrated
Top 10 and top 20 mining companies’ gold production share in the global total*
*Data as of 2024 due to data availability. Source: Metals Focus, World Gold Council
Summary
Despite higher gold prices, mined gold production has grown only modestly, raising questions about long‑term sustainability. While the risk that we run out of “easy” reserve appears limited, technological advances and a gold price that is high enough should help unlock currently uneconomic supply. And sizeable above‑ground stocks – though not all readily accessible – can supplement mine output when conditions allow, supporting overall supply stability.
Even when large projects come online, their near‑term price impact is likely limited. Our model suggests a 25t change in supply translates into roughly a 1% price move, all else equal, but real‑world dynamics are far more complex. Lastly, fragmented production, artisanal mining, and recycled supply make coordinated supply responses unlikely, reinforcing gold’s long‑term market stability.
Footnotes
1We published our FY 2025 and Q4 data ahead of most companies’ quarterly reports, so the final numbers will differ from our estimates. Revisions to our mine supply dataset are usually concentrated in recent quarters, but revised mine production data released by the government of Indonesia saw a 7t and 5t increase in estimates for mine production as far back as 2015 and 2018, respectively.
2More exploration would incur up-front costs, and mines with reserve lives of more than about 20 years are not rewarded by the equity market.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding the LBMA Gold Price
The LBMA Gold Price is used by the World Gold Council with permission under license by ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and is subject to the restrictions set forth here (www.gold.org/terms-and-conditions).
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Global markets faced a turbulent week as the West Asian conflict added to existing economic uncertainty. Economic data pointed to moderating US growth, flat UK GDP, and a sharp drop in Eurozone industrial production, while China continued to post large trade surpluses.
Global equities ended the week lower, while US Treasury yields, the dollar, and oil moved higher. Gold fell further as investors continued to adjust their expectations of the Fed’s future rate paths.
Private credit is beginning to echo 2007–08. Investor withdrawals from US private credit funds so far appear to reflect liquidity rather than solvency concerns, but public investment‑grade spreads have started to widen. It remains unclear whether this is a localised, “contained” episode or something more systemic. It highlights a core vulnerability of private markets: capital can exit quickly, while the underlying illiquid assets may take far longer to sell. Gold’s liquidity is an advantage, but in a more severe credit shock it could also initially come under pressure (C.O.T.W)
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding the LBMA Gold Price
The LBMA Gold Price is used by the World Gold Council with permission under license by ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and is subject to the restrictions set forth here (www.gold.org/terms-and-conditions).
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Last week was marked by major central bank meetings and escalating geopolitical tensions. Most central banks, including the Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, held rates steady but highlighted rising inflation risks and signaled a hawkish bias, while the RBA hiked. Economic data was mixed, stronger in China but weaker across other major economies.
Gold has fallen to new lows for the year as bond yields move sharply higher with next key support seen at US$4,090/oz – US$4,066/oz, which includes its long-term 200-day moving average and the 38.2% retracement of the 2022/2026 uptrend (C.O.T.W).
The drivers of the weakness are currently debated. Sharply higher real yields and expectations that policy rates will now rise in 2026, alongside de‑leveraging and profit‑taking, have all weighed on sentiment. The speed and breadth of market moves echo risk‑off episodes seen in 2008 and 2020, when liquidity dynamics temporarily dominated fundamentals. The prospect of a prolonged Middle East conflict is concerning, as it raises humanitarian and geopolitical risks alongside the threat of economic stagnation and higher industrial input prices. We’re in wait-and-see mode.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding the LBMA Gold Price
The LBMA Gold Price is used by the World Gold Council with permission under license by ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and is subject to the restrictions set forth here (www.gold.org/terms-and-conditions).
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Gold’s volatility has markedly increased in 2026; however, similar episodes have occurred in periods of risk with volatility usually normalising within a few months
Bid-ask spreads have also notably risen since 2024; however, barring unusually high spikes in off market hours, the gold market still offers sizable liquidity through record trading volumes and two-way market activity
Amid a visible increase in the bond-equity correlation, gold remains a valuable strategic asset and portfolio diversifier even when accounting for its higher volatility environment.
Has gold’s volatility persistently increased?
Key drivers behind gold’s rising volatility
Gold’s volatility has picked up in 2026 (Chart 1). It breached its historical upper quartile, rising to the top fifth percentile of the data series since 1971. The drivers of such large swings in the gold price are discussed in our Gold Market Commentary from January, February and March, and include:
Cooling Fed rate cut expectations and upticks in bond yields sparked by various triggers such as the announcement of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair nominee in late January and the Middle East conflict that pushed up inflationary concerns in late February
A strengthening of the USD, reversing a three-month declining trend
Investor unwinding of long positions in futures, options and gold ETFs following the final exponential surge in gold’s rally, which took it from US$5,000/oz to US$5,500/oz in just three days
Stop-loss orders, which amplified gold’s moves when it breached down through key thresholds.
Chart 1: Gold’s volatility has picked up in the beginning of 2026, akin to the spikes seen in previous periods of risk
Gold’s monthly realised volatility since 1971*
*Based on daily returns of the LBMA Gold Price PM in USD from 1 January 1971 to 31 March 2026.The long-term average is based on monthly volatility data between January 1971 and March 2026 Source: ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council
And while the gold market rebounded a couple of times, continued geopolitical risk increased liquidity needs during market stress adding further pressure, especially as the war in the Middle East affected important trading and demand hubs such as Dubai.
It is important to note that gold is not the only asset whose volatility has increased in 2026 (Chart 2). Volatilities of equities and bonds have increased sizably in March. And such episodes have happened before. For instance, during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), investors sold gold, given its ample liquidity conditions and prior robust performance, to meet other margin calls or liquidity needs. Similar actions were seen when the COVID-19 pandemic took its toll on global financial markets. In most of these incidents, gold has done well and helped investors accumulate “emergency funding sources”. And gold also delivered robust returns when liquidity crunches were over. This is one of the key edges shaping gold’s strategic status in investors’ portfolios: the liquidity source during market stress.
Chart 2: Gold’s historical volatility surges were not isolated
Annualised cross asset monthly volatility *
*Annualised monthly volatility based on daily returns of LBMA Gold Price PM, the S&P 500 Total Return Index, the Bloomberg US Agg Total Return Index, Bloomberg Energy Total Return Subindex, and the US Dollar Index. Source: Bloomberg, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council
Will gold’s heightened volatility ease?
Our analysis shows that gold’s volatility is mean reverting (Chart 3). As shown in Chart 1, gold’s annualised volatility has generally remained between 10% and 18% during most days. Furthermore, historical data suggests a volatility ‘half-life’ (the time it takes for a volatility shock event’s impact to halve) of around 1.6 months, similar to that of equities. The implication is clear: while gold volatility can surge to levels unseen for years, it has historically reverted towards its long‑run norm.
Chart 3: Historical data suggests gold volatility shocks halve after 1.6 months
Left: Decay of a shock’s impact on gold’s volatility; Right: Historical patterns following a volatility shock*
*Auto Regression of order 1 based on log monthly volatilities shows ρ=0.65 and statistically significant at 99% confidence. The half-life is computed by: log(2)/( -log( ρ )). Monthly volatilities are based on daily returns of LBMA Gold Price PM in dollars between January 1971 and March 2026. Historical volatility dates used: GFC: October 2008; US-Israel-Iran war: February 2026; Sovereign debt crisis: September 2011; COVID-19: March 2020. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Was gold market liquidity impacted by sell-offs?
Gold trading activity surged sharply during recent market sell-offs, underscoring its deep liquidity in periods of stress (Chart 4). During the last week of January, as the gold price pulled back, average daily gold trading volumes across major venues reached US$965bn/day, or 5,805t/day – the highest level on record. Over-the-counter (OTC) activity, driven largely by LBMA members, averaged US$395bn/day, up 41% w/w. Volumes on major exchanges jumped 45% to US$520bn/day, led by strong increases on COMEX and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), while gold ETF trading surged 137% w/w to US$49bn/day.
A similar pattern emerged in March. As gold prices corrected, average daily trading volumes rose to US$525bn/day, up 11% m/m and 46% above the 2025 average of US$361bn/day, with LBMA OTC and COMEX activity particularly strong. This mirrored activity seen in March 2020 when the COVID‑19 pandemic hit global markets and triggered selloffs, global gold trading volumes spiked, reinforcing gold’s role in providing deep liquidity during periods of broad financial stress.
Chart 4: Gold market liquidity ample during recent pullbacks
Gold market trading volumes across different segments*
*Weekly data as of 27 March 2026. For more, see: Gold Trading Volume | Gold Daily Volume | World Gold Council. Source: Bloomberg, Nasdaq, COMEX, ICE Benchmark Administration, Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, ETF providers, Multi Commodity Exchange of India, Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange, Japan Exchange Group, Thailand Futures Exchange, Borsa Istanbul, Bursa Malaysia, Korea Exchange, World Gold Council
Meanwhile, the intraday bid-ask spread offers a clearer gauge of market depth. Gold has been hit by several episodic shocks in recent months, but the striking feature is how short-lived these bouts of spread widening have been (Chart 5). Notably, the four largest spikes occurred either on Sunday night into Monday morning or late Thursday night into Friday, when prices gapped higher or lower into the Asia open amid thinner liquidity, before quickly normalising.
Chart 5: Spread widening has been episodic, short lived, and mostly outside standard trading hours
Time weighted average bid ask spread in bps*
*Data as of 13 April 2026. The purple line shows XAU’s time‑weighted average bid‑ask spread across all trading days (Monday–Friday), while the blue line includes only Tuesday–Thursday, excluding periods more prone to thin liquidity and price gaps. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
We also examined an alternative measure of liquidity by looking at bid-ask spreads relative to realised volatility. Although spot gold saw wider spreads during episodes of market stress over the past two years, this appears to have been driven largely by higher volatility rather than a sustained deterioration in liquidity. On a volatility-adjusted basis, spreads have remained broadly within their historical range and have already eased from prior peaks (Chart 6). This suggests that the widening in spreads was episodic rather than structural and should continue to normalise as volatility recedes.
Chart 6: Gold bid-ask spreads per unit of volatility have fallen from prior stress peaks
Time weighted average bid-ask spread relative to 30-day realised volatility*
*Data as of 8 April 2026. Ratio calculated as time-weighted average bid-ask spread divided by 30-day realized volatility for spot gold (XAU US$/oz) Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Is gold still the strategic asset for portfolios?
Despite recent volatility spikes, gold remains a strategic asset in investors’ portfolios. Inflation shocks typically lead to positive bond-equity correlations due to their adverse effects on both asset classes. And the recent spike in oil prices linked to the Iran conflict will likely reinforce inflation-related volatility. Meanwhile, gold maintains its low-negative correlation with risk assets, offering investors a safe-haven (Chart 7).
Chart 7: Gold’s correlation with equities has been consistently low
*Weekly data from December 2023 to March 2026. Based on MSCI US Index, MSCI World Index, Bloomberg US Bond Index, Bloomberg Global Bond Index and LBMA Gold Price PM. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
As such, adding gold to a diversified portfolio continues to help reduce overall risk due to its correlation profile with both bonds and equities, even during recent episodes when gold’s volatility has risen. Our analysis of a hypothetical portfolio of global stocks and bonds confirms this (Chart 8). Furthermore, it is common for gold to retract initially during periods of risk as it is used as a source of liquidity, but to recover and outperform other asset classes when heightened uncertainty persists. As such, the addition of gold has a very a low contribution to portfolio risk while visibly reducing its overall volatility.
Chart 8: Adding gold can reduce overall portfolio volatility without significantly increasing the risk budget due to its low correlation to equities and bonds
A typical 60/40 global portfolio without gold and with 5% gold between January 2025 and April 2026*
*Weekly data from 1 January 2025 to 10 April 2026. Portfolio (without/with gold): Global equities: MSCI World Index (60%/57.5%), Global Aggregate bonds: Bloomberg Global Bonds Agg Index (40%/37.5%). Risk contribution is calculated by multiplying each asset class weight by its weighted covariance with other assets, then dividing by the portfolio variance. Portfolio risk represents the volatility of the entire portfolio over the predefined periods shown on the chart. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding the LBMA Gold Price
The LBMA Gold Price is used by the World Gold Council with permission under license by ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and is subject to the restrictions set forth here (www.gold.org/terms-and-conditions).
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Weekly Markets Monitor: The tail is wagging
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
Chart of the week: The tail is wagging
Market expectations for Fed Funds rate by December 2026*
*Data as of 16 February 2026. Fed funds interest rate expectations, based on 30-day Fed Funds Futures prices.
Source: CME, World Gold Council
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2026 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding the LBMA Gold Price
The LBMA Gold Price is used by the World Gold Council with permission under license by ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and is subject to the restrictions set forth here (www.gold.org/terms-and-conditions).
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Information from ICRA Analytics Limited
All information obtained from ICRA Analytics Limited contained in this document is subject to the disclaimer set forth here (www.icraanalytics.com/terms-of-use/disclaimer).
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Weekly Markets Monitor: A silver lining playbook?
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
Chart of the week: A silver lining playbook?
*Data as of 20 February 2026. Chart shows historical forward 26-week silver future price returns at various levels of COMEX silver positioning based on 52w z-scored managed money net long positions.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2026 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding the LBMA Gold Price
The LBMA Gold Price is used by the World Gold Council with permission under license by ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and is subject to the restrictions set forth here (www.gold.org/terms-and-conditions).
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Information from ICRA Analytics Limited
All information obtained from ICRA Analytics Limited contained in this document is subject to the disclaimer set forth here (www.icraanalytics.com/terms-of-use/disclaimer).
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Weekly Markets Monitor: Crisis hedge
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
Chart of the week: Crisis hedge
*Analysis from 13 January 1985 to 20 February 2026. Chart shows the spot gold and WTI crude average and median return for weeks (14 instances) when the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) spikes by two standard deviations (full sample z-score) or more. Only the initial spike is considered with an 8-week gap. Gold returns were positive 64% of the time. Oil returns were positive 36% of the time.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2026 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding the LBMA Gold Price
The LBMA Gold Price is used by the World Gold Council with permission under license by ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and is subject to the restrictions set forth here (www.gold.org/terms-and-conditions).
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Information from ICRA Analytics Limited
All information obtained from ICRA Analytics Limited contained in this document is subject to the disclaimer set forth here (www.icraanalytics.com/terms-of-use/disclaimer).
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Weekly Markets Monitor - What gives: oil or yields?
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
Chart of the week: What gives: oil or yields?
*Data from 1 January 2023 to 9 March 2026. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2026 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding the LBMA Gold Price
The LBMA Gold Price is used by the World Gold Council with permission under license by ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and is subject to the restrictions set forth here (www.gold.org/terms-and-conditions).
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Information from ICRA Analytics Limited
All information obtained from ICRA Analytics Limited contained in this document is subject to the disclaimer set forth here (www.icraanalytics.com/terms-of-use/disclaimer).
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You asked, we answered: Are we running out of gold?
John Reade
Senior Market Strategist World Gold CouncilRay Jia
Head of Research (Asia Pacific, ex-India) and Deputy Head of Trade Engagement (China) World Gold CouncilIntroduction
Mined gold production reached a record high in 2025, based on our 2025 Gold Demand Trends report (Chart 1). Global miners produced 3,672t of gold, a modest y/y increase of 1% and the highest in our data series – albeit this may be subject to revisions when more data becomes available.1 And we expect mined gold production to further increase in 2026 – at a mild pace – as operations resume at two major mines.
Chart 1: A modest increase took 2025 mined gold production to the highest in our data series
Source: Metals Focus, Refinitiv GFMS, World Gold Council
In our previous post, we explained why gold mine production typically lags the gold price and we discussed the possibility that production will plateau over the coming years. A key reason for this is that the new gold mining projects are getting harder to discover, due mainly to geopolitical instability in many prospective regions; lengthening development timelines amid protracted permitting processes for environmental and social licenses; rising capital costs; and complicated project financing in remote areas.
Based on the annual reports of major gold mining companies, the 2026 production outlook is generally cautious – most forecast declines compared to 2025. Without more discoveries, current reserves naturally deplete – perhaps at a faster pace should the gold price keep rising – which could possibly encourage production to accelerate. This has raised concerns from investors:
In this update, we aim to provide some guidance for investors regarding these questions.
Will we eventually run out of gold?
There are two parts related to this question – the broader gold supply and mined production. Our answer to both is: not likely.
First, we are not likely to run out of gold supply. There are two major parts to supply: recycled gold and mined gold. While mined gold may be plateauing as noted previously, recycled gold supply comes from various sectors. As shown in Figure 1 below, total above-ground gold amounts to 219,891t. And because gold is virtually indestructible, almost all of it is available to come back to the market under certain market conditions. For instance, when the gold price is high, it may trigger sellbacks of gold jewellery from consumers and more industrial recycling – factors that are far more responsive to price than mined gold production.
Figure 1: The above-ground gold stock and under-ground reserves*
*End-2025 estimates from Metals Focus. Reserves are the portion of an ore deposit that can be economically extracted. For an ore deposit to be considered a reserve, numerous factors will have been assessed, such as geological, mining, processing, marketing, economic and ESG. Only once all of these have been taken into consideration and the ore is still economically viable will it be considered a reserve. Projects that have reached feasibility stage are likely to fall into this category. There are two types: proven and probable. Resources are the portion of a deposit in which companies have less geological knowledge and confidence, i.e. less drilling data and only simple economic modelling applied, or in some instances no economic modelling at all – it’s a broad category ranging from inferred, indicated to measured. Estimates for reserves and resources can vary, for example reserves are currently estimated to be ~64,000t by the US Geological Survey.
Source: Metals Focus, Refinitiv GFMS, World Gold Council
Second, we are not likely to run out of gold to mine either.
Metals Focus estimates that there are 54,770t of gold reserves by the end of 2025, i.e. the portion of an ore deposit that can be economically extracted under conditions as of 2025, whereas the US Geological Survey (USGS) data estimates gold reserves to be around 64,000t.
And resources – the total potential of gold deposits based on geological evidence and sampling, including the part that is economically minable and the part that is not – are estimated to be 132,110t, based on data from Metals Focus.
There is a common misconception that proven gold reserves can only last ~15 years at the 2025 rate of production. But it is important to note that estimates of below-ground reserves have remained stable for decades even as gold is being continually mined out.
This stability is explained by several factors, which will likely continue:
Also, with technology advancing, better geological modelling and deeper underground mining becoming more effective, making new discoveries more viable and extending current usable supply. Theorectically, gold exists deep under earth’s crust3 and even under oceans,4 although these are not currently viable due to technological constraints or cost considerations and, in some case, due to ESG concerns.5
In conclusion, while there is a slim possibility that we run out of “easy” and “cheap” gold to mine – if all discoveries stopped, technological advancement and a price that is high enough could see gold extracted from previously unfeasible supply sources.
How would sizeable changes in mined gold production impact the gold price?
Changes to gold production are normally only reflected in changes to the price over the long term; any immediate impact will likely be mild. First, any new discovery is unlikely to be large enough to move the needle. Based on data from Metals Focus, the Muruntau mine in Uzbekistan was the largest in the world in 2024, producing 65t of gold during that year. But compared to the world total of 3,650t, it is small (Figure 2). Second, as we previously noted, any new discovery is likely to take more than a decade to be explored, permitted, built and ramped up to full production. The market will have had time to absorb the news and may gradually price in such expectations, making little impact in the short term.
Figure 2: The largest gold mine production is negligible when compared to the global total mined
Top 10 individual gold mines vs the global mined production in 2024
Source: Metals Focus, World Gold Council
From a modelling perspective, holding all else constant, QaurumSM suggests that every ~25t gold supply increase/decrease leads to a c.1% decline/rise in the gold price during the same period. But both our model and the real world function in a more complicated way. For instance, any decline in the gold price caused by a rise in mine production may lift demand for gold jewellery and industrial use, offseting the negative price impact. Furthermore, recycled gold supply may also taper off as the gold price declines, counteracting the increase in mine production. Lastly, changes that feed through each segment may not happen during the same period, further complicating the impact. It is important to note that it is the overall supply and demand conditions that collectively impact the gold price.
Is it possible for gold producers to collectively impact mined gold supply?
The answer is “probably not possible in the real world”.
First, gold supply comes from various sources, including mine production and recycling. If we assume that gold miners collectively limit production to drive up the price, recycled gold supply is likely to rise in response to the higher gold price as it often does, potentially inserting pressure on the price. With above-ground gold holdings at 219,891t, the potential for recycled gold supply is vast – although not all of it can be mobilised quickly – compared to mined gold supply.
Second, the gold mining industry is globally diverse and its concentration ratio is low. The top ten gold producers accounted for 27% of total global production. It would be difficult to persuade all gold miners to act collectively, not to mention ASGM supply, which accounted for around 20% of the global total in 2024, based on our estimate6; these ASGM sources are even less likely to be responsive to attempts to constrain production. Lastly, monopolistic actions, such as co-ordinating production cuts across the gold industry, are illegal in many jurisdictions.7
Chart 2: The gold mining industry is not particularly concentrated
Top 10 and top 20 mining companies’ gold production share in the global total*
*Data as of 2024 due to data availability.
Source: Metals Focus, World Gold Council
Summary
Despite higher gold prices, mined gold production has grown only modestly, raising questions about long‑term sustainability. While the risk that we run out of “easy” reserve appears limited, technological advances and a gold price that is high enough should help unlock currently uneconomic supply. And sizeable above‑ground stocks – though not all readily accessible – can supplement mine output when conditions allow, supporting overall supply stability.
Even when large projects come online, their near‑term price impact is likely limited. Our model suggests a 25t change in supply translates into roughly a 1% price move, all else equal, but real‑world dynamics are far more complex. Lastly, fragmented production, artisanal mining, and recycled supply make coordinated supply responses unlikely, reinforcing gold’s long‑term market stability.
Footnotes
1We published our FY 2025 and Q4 data ahead of most companies’ quarterly reports, so the final numbers will differ from our estimates. Revisions to our mine supply dataset are usually concentrated in recent quarters, but revised mine production data released by the government of Indonesia saw a 7t and 5t increase in estimates for mine production as far back as 2015 and 2018, respectively.
2More exploration would incur up-front costs, and mines with reserve lives of more than about 20 years are not rewarded by the equity market.
3See: Mantle oxidation by sulfur drives the formation of giant gold deposits in subduction zones | PNAS, 19 December 2024.
4See: Gold in seawater - ScienceDirect, May 1990.
5See: Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
6See: Understanding ASGM: A Vital Segment of the Gold Sector | World Gold Council, 27 June 2025.
7See: The Antitrust Laws | Federal Trade Commission; International Competition Law: A Global Perspective for Multinational Corporations - Michael Edwards | Commercial Corporate Solicitor
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Important information and disclaimers
© 2026 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding the LBMA Gold Price
The LBMA Gold Price is used by the World Gold Council with permission under license by ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and is subject to the restrictions set forth here (www.gold.org/terms-and-conditions).
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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All information obtained from ICRA Analytics Limited contained in this document is subject to the disclaimer set forth here (www.icraanalytics.com/terms-of-use/disclaimer).
Weekly Markets Monitor - Credit, where credit’s due
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
Chart of the week: Credit, where credit’s due
Source: Bloomberg
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© 2026 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding the LBMA Gold Price
The LBMA Gold Price is used by the World Gold Council with permission under license by ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and is subject to the restrictions set forth here (www.gold.org/terms-and-conditions).
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Information from ICRA Analytics Limited
All information obtained from ICRA Analytics Limited contained in this document is subject to the disclaimer set forth here (www.icraanalytics.com/terms-of-use/disclaimer).
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Weekly Markets Monitor - Testing gold’s resolve
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
Chart of the week: Testing gold’s resolve
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2026 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding the LBMA Gold Price
The LBMA Gold Price is used by the World Gold Council with permission under license by ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and is subject to the restrictions set forth here (www.gold.org/terms-and-conditions).
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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You asked, we answered: Has gold's performance structurally changed?
Juan Carlos Artigas
Regional CEO (Americas) and Global Head of Research World Gold CouncilRay Jia
Head of Research (Asia Pacific, ex-India) and Deputy Head of Trade Engagement (China) World Gold CouncilTaylor Burnette
Research Lead, Americas World Gold CouncilHighlights
Has gold’s volatility persistently increased?
Key drivers behind gold’s rising volatility
Gold’s volatility has picked up in 2026 (Chart 1). It breached its historical upper quartile, rising to the top fifth percentile of the data series since 1971. The drivers of such large swings in the gold price are discussed in our Gold Market Commentary from January, February and March, and include:
Chart 1: Gold’s volatility has picked up in the beginning of 2026, akin to the spikes seen in previous periods of risk
Gold’s monthly realised volatility since 1971*
*Based on daily returns of the LBMA Gold Price PM in USD from 1 January 1971 to 31 March 2026.The long-term average is based on monthly volatility data between January 1971 and March 2026
Source: ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council
And while the gold market rebounded a couple of times, continued geopolitical risk increased liquidity needs during market stress adding further pressure, especially as the war in the Middle East affected important trading and demand hubs such as Dubai.
It is important to note that gold is not the only asset whose volatility has increased in 2026 (Chart 2). Volatilities of equities and bonds have increased sizably in March. And such episodes have happened before. For instance, during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), investors sold gold, given its ample liquidity conditions and prior robust performance, to meet other margin calls or liquidity needs. Similar actions were seen when the COVID-19 pandemic took its toll on global financial markets. In most of these incidents, gold has done well and helped investors accumulate “emergency funding sources”. And gold also delivered robust returns when liquidity crunches were over. This is one of the key edges shaping gold’s strategic status in investors’ portfolios: the liquidity source during market stress.
Chart 2: Gold’s historical volatility surges were not isolated
Annualised cross asset monthly volatility *
*Annualised monthly volatility based on daily returns of LBMA Gold Price PM, the S&P 500 Total Return Index, the Bloomberg US Agg Total Return Index, Bloomberg Energy Total Return Subindex, and the US Dollar Index.
Source: Bloomberg, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council
Will gold’s heightened volatility ease?
Our analysis shows that gold’s volatility is mean reverting (Chart 3). As shown in Chart 1, gold’s annualised volatility has generally remained between 10% and 18% during most days. Furthermore, historical data suggests a volatility ‘half-life’ (the time it takes for a volatility shock event’s impact to halve) of around 1.6 months, similar to that of equities. The implication is clear: while gold volatility can surge to levels unseen for years, it has historically reverted towards its long‑run norm.
Chart 3: Historical data suggests gold volatility shocks halve after 1.6 months
Left: Decay of a shock’s impact on gold’s volatility; Right: Historical patterns following a volatility shock*
*Auto Regression of order 1 based on log monthly volatilities shows ρ=0.65 and statistically significant at 99% confidence. The half-life is computed by: log(2)/( -log( ρ )). Monthly volatilities are based on daily returns of LBMA Gold Price PM in dollars between January 1971 and March 2026. Historical volatility dates used: GFC: October 2008; US-Israel-Iran war: February 2026; Sovereign debt crisis: September 2011; COVID-19: March 2020.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Was gold market liquidity impacted by sell-offs?
Gold trading activity surged sharply during recent market sell-offs, underscoring its deep liquidity in periods of stress (Chart 4). During the last week of January, as the gold price pulled back, average daily gold trading volumes across major venues reached US$965bn/day, or 5,805t/day – the highest level on record. Over-the-counter (OTC) activity, driven largely by LBMA members, averaged US$395bn/day, up 41% w/w. Volumes on major exchanges jumped 45% to US$520bn/day, led by strong increases on COMEX and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), while gold ETF trading surged 137% w/w to US$49bn/day.
A similar pattern emerged in March. As gold prices corrected, average daily trading volumes rose to US$525bn/day, up 11% m/m and 46% above the 2025 average of US$361bn/day, with LBMA OTC and COMEX activity particularly strong. This mirrored activity seen in March 2020 when the COVID‑19 pandemic hit global markets and triggered selloffs, global gold trading volumes spiked, reinforcing gold’s role in providing deep liquidity during periods of broad financial stress.
Chart 4: Gold market liquidity ample during recent pullbacks
Gold market trading volumes across different segments*
*Weekly data as of 27 March 2026. For more, see: Gold Trading Volume | Gold Daily Volume | World Gold Council.
Source: Bloomberg, Nasdaq, COMEX, ICE Benchmark Administration, Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, ETF providers, Multi Commodity Exchange of India, Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange, Japan Exchange Group, Thailand Futures Exchange, Borsa Istanbul, Bursa Malaysia, Korea Exchange, World Gold Council
Meanwhile, the intraday bid-ask spread offers a clearer gauge of market depth. Gold has been hit by several episodic shocks in recent months, but the striking feature is how short-lived these bouts of spread widening have been (Chart 5). Notably, the four largest spikes occurred either on Sunday night into Monday morning or late Thursday night into Friday, when prices gapped higher or lower into the Asia open amid thinner liquidity, before quickly normalising.
Chart 5: Spread widening has been episodic, short lived, and mostly outside standard trading hours
Time weighted average bid ask spread in bps*
*Data as of 13 April 2026. The purple line shows XAU’s time‑weighted average bid‑ask spread across all trading days (Monday–Friday), while the blue line includes only Tuesday–Thursday, excluding periods more prone to thin liquidity and price gaps.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
We also examined an alternative measure of liquidity by looking at bid-ask spreads relative to realised volatility. Although spot gold saw wider spreads during episodes of market stress over the past two years, this appears to have been driven largely by higher volatility rather than a sustained deterioration in liquidity. On a volatility-adjusted basis, spreads have remained broadly within their historical range and have already eased from prior peaks (Chart 6). This suggests that the widening in spreads was episodic rather than structural and should continue to normalise as volatility recedes.
Chart 6: Gold bid-ask spreads per unit of volatility have fallen from prior stress peaks
Time weighted average bid-ask spread relative to 30-day realised volatility*
*Data as of 8 April 2026. Ratio calculated as time-weighted average bid-ask spread divided by 30-day realized volatility for spot gold (XAU US$/oz)
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Is gold still the strategic asset for portfolios?
Despite recent volatility spikes, gold remains a strategic asset in investors’ portfolios. Inflation shocks typically lead to positive bond-equity correlations due to their adverse effects on both asset classes. And the recent spike in oil prices linked to the Iran conflict will likely reinforce inflation-related volatility. Meanwhile, gold maintains its low-negative correlation with risk assets, offering investors a safe-haven (Chart 7).
Chart 7: Gold’s correlation with equities has been consistently low
Left: bond-equity correlation; Right: gold-equity correlation*
*Weekly data from December 2023 to March 2026. Based on MSCI US Index, MSCI World Index, Bloomberg US Bond Index, Bloomberg Global Bond Index and LBMA Gold Price PM.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
As such, adding gold to a diversified portfolio continues to help reduce overall risk due to its correlation profile with both bonds and equities, even during recent episodes when gold’s volatility has risen. Our analysis of a hypothetical portfolio of global stocks and bonds confirms this (Chart 8). Furthermore, it is common for gold to retract initially during periods of risk as it is used as a source of liquidity, but to recover and outperform other asset classes when heightened uncertainty persists. As such, the addition of gold has a very a low contribution to portfolio risk while visibly reducing its overall volatility.
Chart 8: Adding gold can reduce overall portfolio volatility without significantly increasing the risk budget due to its low correlation to equities and bonds
A typical 60/40 global portfolio without gold and with 5% gold between January 2025 and April 2026*
*Weekly data from 1 January 2025 to 10 April 2026. Portfolio (without/with gold): Global equities: MSCI World Index (60%/57.5%), Global Aggregate bonds: Bloomberg Global Bonds Agg Index (40%/37.5%). Risk contribution is calculated by multiplying each asset class weight by its weighted covariance with other assets, then dividing by the portfolio variance. Portfolio risk represents the volatility of the entire portfolio over the predefined periods shown on the chart.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2026 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding the LBMA Gold Price
The LBMA Gold Price is used by the World Gold Council with permission under license by ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and is subject to the restrictions set forth here (www.gold.org/terms-and-conditions).
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Information from ICRA Analytics Limited
All information obtained from ICRA Analytics Limited contained in this document is subject to the disclaimer set forth here (www.icraanalytics.com/terms-of-use/disclaimer).