29 January, 2026
| Tonnes | 2024 | 2025 | Year-on-year % change |
|
| Total supply | 4,961.9 | 5,002.3 | 1 |
|
| Mine production | 3,650.4 | 3,671.6 | 1 |
|
| Net producer hedging | -53.8 | -73.6 | - |
|
| Recycled gold | 1,365.3 | 1,404.3 | 3 |
|
Total gold supply in 2025 increased 1% y/y to 5,002t, the highest in our annual data series back to 1970, driven by record mine production and higher recycling supply. Although initial estimates suggest that 2025 mine production reached an all-time high of 3,672t, this data is subject to revisions, which make it difficult to state with certainty that the previous record high has been broken.
Early estimates also suggest that outstanding net producer hedging fell significantly during the year as producers delivered into maturing contracts and bought back some longer-dated hedges.
Current estimates suggest that mine production posted a marginal gain in 2025, up 1% to 3,672t and just surpassing the 3,663t record set in 2018. But the prospects of revisions to production volumes make us cautious about calling 2025 a record year for mine output just yet. As usual, we publish our Q4’25 data ahead of most companies’ quarterly reports, so the final numbers will differ from our current estimates. Revisions to our mine supply dataset are usually concentrated in recent quarters, but revised mine production data released by the government of Indonesia saw a 7t and 5t increase in estimates for mine production as far back as 2015 and 2018, respectively.1
In Q4’25 the regions of Africa and Asia saw the most notable growth, both +3t y/y. The following countries registered notable growth:
Several countries witnessed a notable y/y fall in gold mine production due to operational or grade-specific factors:
Mine production may increase further in 2026 as output from two major mines recovers. Grasberg, in Indonesia, should continue to ramp-up following the fatal accident in Q3’25, while the recently announced agreement between Barrick and the government of Mali should see mining restart and volumes rebuild through the year.2 Metals Focus’ mine production data includes estimates for artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM); the contribution from this source is expected to grow again in 2026 given the strong rise in the gold price.
Mine production growth should not be overstated, however. Although output looks to have hit a new all-time high in 2025, with potential for more gains in 2026, the global gold mining industry has struggled to grow meaningfully over the past decade or so. The average annual growth in mine production over the past ten years is less than 1% and we believe that it will be challenging for the industry to increase production in the short term.
Average all-in sustaining costs (AISC) for the gold mining industry increased 9% y/y in Q3 to US$1,605/oz. The comparatively muted 1% quarterly increase in the AISC is partly explained by seasonal factors, as the third and fourth quarters of the year typically see the highest mine production.
Higher sustaining capital expenditure, along with greater input costs and larger royalty payments tied to the higher gold price, contributed to the y/y rise in the AISC.
The industry aggregate producer hedge book is estimated to have fallen by 74t in 2025 to about 120t, with declines occurring in each quarter of the year. Mining companies have delivered into maturing hedges and have restructured or bought back positions. Where new hedging has taken place over the past year, our conversations with industry participants suggest it has been increasingly concentrated in purchased put options, with companies prepared to spend cash to guarantee a floor price for future production. Historically, price protection was typically funded by the sale of call options, limiting or eliminating the potential for mining companies to benefit from higher gold prices, so this is a material behavioural change.
At about 120t, the outstanding aggregate producer hedge book is the lowest seen since 2013 and a small fraction of the more than 3000t open position seen around the turn of the millennium. The last 25 years have seen a significant shift in gold hedging strategy and today its widespread use shows no sign of returning to the gold industry; roughly half of the outstanding positions are from mines in one country – Australia.
Higher gold prices tend to lead to increased recycling activity, and with record gold prices around the world it is no surprise that this element of supply increased in Q4’25 – by 2% y/y and 7% q/q to 366t. This represents the highest single quarter of recycled supply since Q3’20; a time when the gold price had jumped due to the impact of the COVID pandemic. Full-year recycling supply increased by 2% to 1,404t, the highest level since 2012.
Given the 44% increase in the annual average gold price, it was a surprise that recycling volume did not increase by more than it did. This is largely explained by the behaviour of holders of gold in some major markets. In 2025 changes in recycling supply showed a distinct pattern. Developed market economies, such as the US, Europe and Japan saw healthy y/y increases in scrap supply, while emerging markets such as India, the Middle East and SE Asia saw declines. Amongst major emerging markets, only China saw a y/y increase in recycling volumes.
Looking more closely at the regional performance it becomes clear that East Asia drove the majority of the q/q increase in recycling, with most of the increased volume from China. Aside from the record gold price, the weak domestic economy, together with the impact of VAT changes, appeared to be driving recycling volumes. Discussions with the trade suggest continued consolidation in China’s jewellery retail and manufacturing network, prompting inventory liquidation.
India drove the y/y and q/q decline in South Asia as recycling in this key consumer market remained weak. The rates of exchanging old jewellery for new remain very high, and consumers continue to pledge their gold jewellery as collateral for loans, capitalising on the high price. Both these trends have resulted in lower volumes of gold being sold outright for scrap.
Other emerging markets such as those in the Middle East and SE Asia saw generally flat to lower y/y sales. A combination of positive expectations for further gold price gains, together with economic and political turmoil and a dearth of investment alternatives in countries such as Iran have kept recycling supply restrained.
The y/y increase in recycling supply from developed markets stands in contrast to the behaviour of consumers in most emerging markets. In Europe, subdued economic activity, unfavourable demographics and large historical stocks of jewellery appear to be driving high recycling supply. Demographics also played a role in Japan, but the weakness of the yen has combined with a high US dollar gold price to take the JPY-denominated gold price to dizzying heights and is mobilising old jewellery sales, especially inherited pieces. In the US, holders of gold appear to be taking advantage of higher prices. While there is little sign of consumer distress, the uneven distribution of wealth and income – the so-called ‘K-shaped’ economy – may be triggering sales from lower income groups.
An elevated gold price is likely to keep recycling volumes strong into 2026, albeit below levels that might be expected considering gold prices around the world. For more details on this year’s prospects for recycling, and for supply more broadly, please see the Outlook section.
