Weekly Markets Monitor - What gives: oil or yields?
9 March, 2026
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Highlights
- Global markets remained under pressure last week. In the US, unexpected job losses, rising unemployment and weaker retail sales pointed to softening momentum, while private credit concerns persisted and the VIX rose. Eurozone inflation surprised on the upside amid risks from rising oil prices. Meanwhile, China set a lower 2026 growth target of 4.5–5% (vs. ~5% last year) and announced increased spending on infrastructure and public services to support growth.
- Global equity markets retreated across the board, while US Treasury yields climbed, the US dollar strengthened sharply, and oil prices surged.
- Oil has seen a further aggressive move higher to suggest a large “technical” base, potentially warning of a further rise (see appendix). This is not just about oil, with natural gas and fertiliser markets also at risk, putting upward pressure on global CPI and possibly complicating policy‑easing initiatives. If the shock does not dissipate then yields could rise further on hotter inflation. Currently, a G7 proposal to release crude from strategic reserves is on the cards, hoping to cushion the supply shock. (C.O.T.W)
Chart of the week: What gives: oil or yields?
*Data from 1 January 2023 to 9 March 2026. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
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