Weekly Markets Monitor: Strengthening the Core
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
- Last week, economic reports were mixed. In the U.S., stronger retail sales and robust corporate earnings met higher CPI inflation. The euro area saw a rise in industrial output, while China’s Q2 growth was stronger. Inflation eased in Japan and India, but the UK faced rising price pressures.
- Major global stock indexes closed mostly flat or with modest weekly gains. U.S. Treasury yields eased, the US dollar strengthened, and oil prices retreated.
- Gold extends its consolidation but the range continues to look mature, and we may be close to this being resolved higher for the completion of a “triangle” continuation pattern (p6). Tariff impacts are slowly appearing in inflation data and investors are starting to price this in further down the curve (COTW).
Chart of the week - Clean Break
Data from 27 June 2022 to 18 July 2025. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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Weekly Markets Monitor: Art of the Deal
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
- Last week, trade deals between the US and several countries dominated headlines, boosting optimism. Meanwhile, the ECB held rates steady, and US corporates earning for Q2 continued to surpass expectations.
- Major global equities rallied on trade optimism with US markets further supported by strong corporate earnings. The 10-year US Treasury yield eased, the dollar weakened, and oil declined.
- Gold has reversed its gains from early in the week and returned to the sideways range that has dominated since late April (appendix).
- Equity euphoria looks like it is back, with MEME stocks soaring as implied volatility retrenches (COTW). Main equity index pullback risks on the rise.
Chart of the week - YOLO is back
Data from 1 Jan 2025 to 28 July 2025. Meme stocks captured by UBS Meme stocks index, which tracks the performance of 15 US listed stocks that gained popularity via online networks and social media platforms. YOLO refers loosely to highly speculative investment.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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Weekly Markets Monitor: Policy bear not hibernating
Weekly Markets Monitor
- Trade deals and tariffs, coupled with weak US labour market data, dominated sentiment last week, while both the Fed and Bank of Japan held rates steady as they monitor the impact of tariffs on prices.
- Global equities ended the week lower, weighed down by weak economic data and renewed trade policy tensions. 10-year US Treasury yields declined, the US dollar strengthened, and oil prices fell.
- Gold continues to hold key support amid US Job market weakness and intensifying expectations of future rate cuts (p6 & appendix). Gold’s jump and risk assets’ drop post labour market data and the dismissal of the BLS chief, reflected how policy risk refuses to hibernate and gold is doing its job for portfolios.
- Our newly released Q2 Gold Demand Trends showed that investment drove growth in global gold demand during the quarter. In addition, we laid out the case for continued strength in the sector and prospects for other sources of demand and supply.
Chart of the week - Investors still flocking to gold
Source: Metals Focus, World Gold Council
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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Weekly Markets Monitor: Gold in the crosshairs
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
- Last week saw new tariffs announced and higher tariffs take effect. Central banks in the UK and India made cautious, diverging policy moves. US economic data showed signs of weakness, while strong corporate earnings lifted investor sentiment.
- Major global equities rose, driven by strong corporate earnings in the US, Europe, and Japan, while Chinese markets gained on solid trade data. US Treasury yields climbed, the dollar softened, and oil edged lower.
- Gold above the US$3,351/oz high would be seen to mark the completion of a “triangle” continuation pattern for a resumption of the core uptrend (p6 & appendix).
- Last week, the spread between COMEX gold futures and London spot hit a record high. This surge followed new US tariffs (39%) on Swiss exports without clear exemptions for gold bars (1kg and 100oz) – Switzerland is the largest gold refining hub globally. But the surging spread may shrink as the White House plans to clarify the tariff rules for Swiss gold bars.
Chart of the week - Gold future’s spread rockets
*Based on the weekly average COMEX General 1st gold contract and the LBMA Gold Price PM. As of 8 August 2025.
Source: ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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China gold market update: Official holdings rose in July
Ray Jia
Head of Research (Asia Pacific, ex-India) and Deputy Head of Trade Engagement (China) World Gold CouncilHighlights
- Gold prices remained stable in July. Both the LBMA Gold Price PM in USD and the Shanghai Benchmark Gold Price PM (SHAUPM) in RMB ended last month with mild increases.
- Gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) saw a mild seasonal m/m rebounded last month, yet remaining below the long-term average.
- Chinese gold ETFs saw outflows in July (-RMB2.4bn, -US$325mn) as investors’ risk appetite improved.
- Gold futures trading activity on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) continued to cool in July but stayed elevated compared to previous years.
- China’s official gold reserves rose 2t in July, scoring the ninth consecutive monthly purchase, to 2,300t.
- Based on the latest data, China’s gold imports fell in June, concluding the weakest H1 since 2021.
Looking ahead
- We expect continued seasonal improvement in China’s wholesale gold demand going forward, particularly in the gold jewellery sector – although the affordability issue may keep volumes depressed.
- Meanwhile, the momentum in bar and coin demand will depend on factors such as the gold price trend and the overall risk appetite – the recent strong equity performance may divert some attention away.
Gold rose modestly in July
Gold prices continued to level off in July. Rising inflationary concerns and various other risks outweighed a stronger dollar, leading to a mild rise in gold prices: the LBMA Gold Price PM in USD was 0.3% higher m/m while the SHAUPM in RMB climbed 0.5%–due mainly to a weaker local currency against the dollar. And y-t-d, the RMB gold price has surged by over 22%, outperforming most local assets.
Chart 1: Gold kept levelling off in July
Monthly returns of the SHAUPM in RMB and the LBMA Gold Price PM in USD*
*Data as of 31 July 2025.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Wholesale demand saw a minor m/m seasonal rise
Gold withdrawals from the SGE totalled 93t in July, a modest m/m rise of 3t and a slight increase of 4t y/y (Chart 2). As shown in the below chart, the m/m pick up is mainly seasonal: jewellery demand tends to improve into Q3. Meanwhile, we believe better sales of gold bullion – as physical gold investors took advantage of the current price stability – also contributed to wholesale gold demand’s rebound in July.
However, July’s demand was well below the 10-year average, highlighting wholesale gold demand’s weakness – particularly in the jewellery sector – this year. As we noted in our Q2 Gold Demand Trends, the divergence in China’s gold demand has continued amid the unprecedented level of the local gold price: while investment demand for gold kept surging, jewellery consumption – in tonnage terms – fell off a cliff, weighing on gold jewellers’ restocking activities – a major part of SGE withdrawals.
Chart 2: A mild m/m seasonal rebound in July’s wholesale gold demand*
*The 10-year average is based on data between 2015 and 2024.
Source: Shanghai Gold Exchange, World Gold Council
Chinese gold ETF flows flipped negative again
Chinese gold ETFs saw outflows of RMB2.4bn (US$325mn) in July (Chart 3). Due to these outflows and a flat gold price, their total AUM declined slightly by 1% to RMB151bn (US$21bn). And collective holdings reduced by 3t to 197t. Despite the July loss, Chinese gold ETFs’ y-t-d inflows remained at a record high of RMB61bn (US$8.5bn, 82t).
With China’s Q2 GDP – released in mid-July – exceeding expectations, local investor risk appetite improved, which is reflected in the strongest monthly performance of the CSI300 stock index since last September. Meanwhile, local government bond yields kept rebounding amid the economic resilience and investors’ cooling expectations of further rate cuts from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). These factors, combined with the lack of a clear trend in the local gold price, dimmed Chinese investors’ interest in gold ETFs during the month.
Chart 3: Chinese gold ETFs saw outflows in July
Collective holdings and monthly demand for Chinese gold ETFs*
*As of 31 July 2025.
Source: Company filings, World Gold Council
Gold futures trading volumes at the SHFE averaged 242t/day, a 18% m/m fall yet remaining above the five-year average of 216t/day (Chart 4). We believe this drop is mainly related to the range-bound gold price performance and a declining price volatility during the month, which lowered traders’ interest.
Chart 4: SHFE gold futures’ trading volumes cooled in July
Monthly trading volumes of SHFE gold futures (daily averages)*
*As of 31 July 2025.
Source: Shanghai Futures Exchange, World Gold Council
The PBoC gold purchase streak extends to nine months
The PBoC announced another gold purchase in July, amounting to 2t, the ninth consecutive monthly addition. Following non-stop purchases during the past nine months, China’s official gold holdings now reached 2,300t, 6.8% of the total reserve (Chart 5). Y-t-d, China has increased its gold holdings by 21t.
Chart 5: The PBoC announced its ninth consecutive monthly gold purchase in July
Reported official gold holdings and gold as a percentage of total foreign exchange reserves*
* As of 31 July 2025.
Source: State Administration of Foreign Exchange, World Gold Council
Imports weak in H1
China’s gold imports almost halved in June, totalling 50t, 45% lower m/m. We believe this is related to tepid wholesale gold demand in the month. And this takes the Q2 total to 250t, 18% below the 2024 level.
During the first half, China imported 323t of gold, a 62% plunge y/y. As we noted in the previous blog, China’s wholesale gold demand has weakened notably in H1. And this has likely suppressed the need to import.
Chart 6: H1 imports were low compared to previous years
Net 7108 gold imports under various regimes*
*Based on the latest data available. Data to June 2025.
Source: China Customs, World Gold Council
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Weekly Markets Monitor: Pressure on at Jackson Hole
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
- Last week was data-heavy: while the US showed mixed economic signals, there were signs of slowing activity in China. Europe exhibited uneven trends, whereas Japan’s economy accelerated and India’s credit rating got a boost.
- Major global equities closed the week higher amid risk-on sentiment and Fed cut hopes, while benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields rose. The dollar softened, and oil prices also eased.
- European long-end bond yields rose sharply last week and for 30yr German Bond Yields this has seen the sideways range of the past two years resolved higher to suggest we may be seeing the medium-term trend turning higher again (see appendix).
- Gold trended lower, remaining in its range between US$3,409/oz and US$3,268/oz. However, stagflationary forces have not let up. Strong PPI and import price prints last week are likely to worry the Fed ahead of the Jackon Hole symposium this week. To boot, consumers’ inflation expectations (University of Michigan) firmly beat expectations while sentiment was weaker.
Chart of the week - PPI ouch!
Data as of 15 August 2025.
Source: Bloomberg
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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India gold market update: Festive prep begins
Kavita Chacko
Research Head, India World Gold CouncilHighlights
- Gold steady with gains in August; discounts narrow in India
- Retailers gear up for festive boost, ramping up inventories
- Positive inflows1 and one new fund entry drive continued gold ETF growth
- RBI holds steady on gold reserves in July
- July’s gold imports surge, bracing for festive demand.
Looking ahead
- As the festive and wedding season approaches there are signs that gold jewellery demand is gaining momentum, and with investment interest holding firm, overall gold demand could receive a boost.
Gold gains but remains range bound
Gold prices have gained renewed strength in August, with international gold prices rising over 1% in the first half of the month to reach US$3,335/oz, building on the modest 0.3% gain in July.2 A combination of factors, including a weaker US dollar, expectations of a Fed rate cut, rising inflation expectations, and ongoing tariff developments has driven the recent price movement. Similarly, gold price movement in July was supported by tariff tensions, geopolitical risks, and inflation concerns, with market momentum also contributing. However, overall price movement has remained range-bound. Despite short-term fluctuations, gold continues to outperform in 2025, delivering a 28% return in US dollar terms year-to-date.3
Chart 1: Gold prices rise; bound by range
End of month LBMA Price PM and domestic spot price changes and movement*
*Based on the LBMA Gold Price PM in USD and MCX spot gold price as of 14 August 2025.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Domestic gold prices in India have closely tracked international trends, with a weaker rupee amplifying gains. As of mid-August, prices had risen 1.6% month-to-date4 to INR 99,665/10g, taking the year-to-date increase to 31%. Importantly, signs of improving demand have led to a narrowing of domestic market discounts5 – from an average of US$27/oz in June to US$3.7/oz as of mid-August.
Gold jewellery market eyes festive season revival
Signs of demand revival are emerging as the gold jewellery market gears up for the upcoming festive and wedding season (from early August to year-end). Anecdotal reports from industry stakeholders suggest a positive outlook. This optimism was evident at the recent India International Jewellery Show (IIJS),6 the country’s largest jewellery trade fair. As per anecdotal reports from the event, many manufacturers reported stronger-than-expected buying interest and a noticeable pickup in orders from both large chain stores and independent retailers. Retailers who had been cautious about their inventories in recent months due to lacklustre demand reported active restocking in anticipation of improved festive sales. And gold price stability also reportedly supported buyer sentiment. Furthermore, to appeal to price-sensitive customers and to drive volumes, manufacturers are focusing on lighter- weight jewellery.
Meanwhile, market reports suggest that investment demand for physical gold, i.e. bars and coins, remains healthy.
Positive flows and expansion in gold ETFs
Flows into Indian gold ETFs remained positive in July, marking the third consecutive month of net inflows. Global policy-related uncertainties and geopolitical tensions have been major drivers of this trend. But, the pace of net inflows slowed, declining to INR12.6bn (US$146mn) in July, down 41% from the previous month. This was broadly in line with our initial estimate7 and nearly 34% higher than the 2024 monthly average of INR 9.4bn. The positive momentum has carried into August, with partial data for the first two weeks indicating higher inflows into Indian gold ETFs.
At the end of July Indian gold ETFs’ cumulative assets under management (AUM) stood at INR676bn (US$7.85bn), a 96% y/y increase. Total gold holdings rose to 68t, with 1.2t added during the month.8 Investor interest in gold ETFs continues to strengthen as indicated by the steady growth in new accounts (folios); 215k new folios were added in July, bringing the total to 7.86mn, a 42% y/y increase.9
One new gold ETF was also launched in July,10 bringing the total number of gold ETFs listed in India to 21.11
Chart 2: Healthy inflows and rising holdings
Monthly gold ETF fund flows in INRbn, and total holdings in tonnes*
*As of end July 2025
Source: AMFI, ICRA Analytics, CMIE, World Gold Council
RBI’s gold reserves unchanged
The Reserve Bank of India did not add to its gold reserves in July, following a modest addition of 0.4t in June. Over the first seven months this year it increased its gold reserves by 4t, a sharp contrast to the 40t bought during the same period in 2024. We believe that this suggests a measured approach in the RBI’s gold reserve management amid significant gains in the gold prices. Despite the slowdown, RBI’s gold holdings remain at a record high of 880t, now accounting for 12% of its foreign exchange reserves, up 4% y/y.
Spurt in imports
Gold imports saw a significant rebound, following three months of declines. At US$4bn, imports in July notably surpassed the monthly average imports for the first six months of 2025 (US$3bn); up 14% y/y and more than double the value of those during June. Our estimates indicate that the volume of gold imported in July ranged from 42t to 48t. The higher import levels suggest that manufacturers are likely preparing for festive season demand, beginning in August.
Chart 3: Uptick in imports
Monthly gold imports in tonnes and US$bn*
* Includes World Gold Council estimates
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, CMIE, World Gold Council
Footnotes:
1July and 1-13 August 2025.
2 Based on the LBMA Gold Price PM as of 14 August and 31 July 2025, respectively.
3 Based on the LBMA Gold Price PM as of 14 August 2025.
4Based on the MCX spot gold price as of 14 August 2025.
5The premium/discount of local gold prices is based on the LBMA Gold Price AM adjusted for import taxes and exchange rate, which is also referred to as the ‘landed price’.
6IIJS was held in Mumbai from 31 July to 4 August 2025.
7 WGC’s preliminary estimate, based on partial data, indicated net fund inflows of INR1,286cr (US$156mn).
8WGC’s preliminary estimate, based on partial data, indicated a net addition of 1.4t in July.
9As per data from the Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI).
10Motilal Oswal Gold ETF was launched in July 2025, as detailed in AMFI’s website.
11A full list of the physically-backed gold ETFs we tracked can be found in: Gold ETF: Stock, Holdings and Flows | World Gold Council
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Weekly Markets Monitor: Fed’s shift
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
- Last week, the US Fed signaled potential rate cuts amid mixed economic signals. The US labor market softened while business activity and housing data surprised on the upside. In Europe, UK inflation surged, Germany’s economy slipped, while India saw its fastest business growth in two decades and Japan faced a sharp drop in exports.
- Major global equity equity markets ended the week higher, while US Treasury yields and the US dollar fell on expectations of lower interest rates. Oil prices also closed the week with gains.
- Historical data shows that while the average performance during the 14 days post Jackson Hole is flat, gold’s negative correlation with interest rates usually intensified leading up to the gathering – this year was no exception – and post the event. This suggests that monetary policy expectations may take the driver’s seat of gold’s performance now.
Chart of the week - What happens post Jackson Hole?
Based on LBMA Gold Price PM, S&P Index and US 10-year Treasury yield 14 days after Jackson Hole gathering in the past 10 years.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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