Gold Demand Trends: Q1 2026

ETFs

Global gold ETFs notched up their seventh consecutive quarter of positive demand. Global holdings increased by 62t in Q1, albeit at a far slower pace than the 200t average of the previous four quarters. Hefty outflows in March reversed much of the sizable January and February inflows.

Inflows of US$12bn lifted total global AUM to US$607bn, 9% above FY25 levels.

At the regional level, Asia was alone in generating consistent monthly gains throughout Q1. Funds in the region added 84t, just shy of Q4’s 91t record. 

China led regional growth: safe‑haven buying, falling local equity markets and a weaker currency all drove buying.

Indian investors also added to their gold ETF holdings, despite profit-taking, which emerged in the second half of the quarter. Dip‑buying activity supported inflows elsewhere across the region.

Japanese investors also contributed notably to growth, via both local gold-backed funds and funds investing in gold ETFs listed in other regions.

European funds saw small losses in Q1, leaking 8t as the price correction triggered redemptions in early February. Rising inflation concerns in March added to the pressure, although inflows resumed later in the month, in tandem with the gold price recovery.

North American funds, meanwhile, posted declines of 16t as a sharp March reversal brought a nine-month streak of inflows to an end. Among other factors, a rise in the US dollar and a material upward shift in interest rates and rate expectations weighed on gold demand. 

Funds in Other regions saw a modest 2t increase in holdings, largely driven by Australia. 

Bar and coin

Q1 was a standout quarter for bar and coin investment, second only to the record 602t set in Q2’13. But the value of demand demolished all previous records, rocketing to US$74bn. For context, quarterly demand for the prior five years averaged US$23bn. 

Much of the demand strength was concentrated in January as the price rally gained momentum. Nevertheless, buying continued throughout the quarter with some investors buying into the price correction.

China 

Explosive growth in Chinese bar and coin demand resulted in the strongest quarter ever. Demand soared to 207t, smashing the Q2’13 record of 155t.

The elevated gold price, and particularly its performance relative to other local assets, continued to drive demand, with further impetus coming from heightened trade risks and global geopolitical tensions. Market feedback suggests that some popular smaller investment items ran out of stock in January and February. 

The VAT reform on gold jewellery introduced in Q4 also continued to benefit the segment, diverting some investment-motivated gold jewellery buying towards bars and coins and contributing to the building trend of bar and coin demand exceeding that for jewellery.  

Gold investment will likely remain strong in Q2, driven by similar dynamics: namely, expectations of lower rates; heightened global and regional geopolitical uncertainty; and the still-elevated gold price. And the possibility that Chinese insurance companies could build allocations to gold is a positive for the sector.

India

Q1 bar and coin investment in India jumped 34% y/y to 62t, the highest first quarter since 2013. Such was the strength of demand that it almost matched jewellery buying – a significant shift in a market where jewellery consumption has typically been multiples of bar and coin demand.

The first quarter saw a continuation of the themes that characterised Q4: investors attracted by gold’s exceptional price rally, and a degree of demand substitution – where some jewellery demand is re-directed to lower-margin investment products.

The strength in bar and coin demand was replicated across other gold investment sectors, with a record 20t added to ETF holdings during the quarter and continued flows into digital gold products. 

Continued strength in this segment of Indian gold demand will, to some extent, depend on gold’s performance, with continued price strength likely to offer support. However, a below normal monsoon and any inflationary impact of the Middle East war would impact incomes and may curb buying.  

Middle East and Turkey

Most markets in the Middle East saw y/y growth in bar and coin demand, contrasting with universal q/q declines. 

While price moves were a key influence, the outbreak of war in the region also had an impact, particularly in the UAE and Iran, where everyday activity was severely disrupted. 

Strong buying interest in Turkey lifted Q1 bar and coin demand and briefly pushed local premiums on gold investment products to US$300-400/oz. In value terms, demand reached a record of US$4bn, despite a pick-up in profit-taking activity during the month. 

US and Europe

The US bar and coin market remained a hive of activity in Q1, with strength in both sides of the market. Net demand was 14% higher y/y, but down 20% q/q as buying slowed in February and early March before picking up late in the quarter when the price correction offered a buying opportunity.   

Anecdotal reports suggest that new investors continued to enter the market during the quarter as gold’s price performance captured headlines. Conversations with contacts suggest that very low-weight investment items are particularly popular, perhaps reflecting affordability constraints. 

Two-way activity was also heightened in Europe during Q1, where demand netted out at 41t, in line with the prior quarter but 50% higher y/y. 

The pattern of demand through the quarter matched that of the US, with healthy buying activity reflecting the continued price strength in January, before subsiding as the price corrected in late February/early March. 

Bargain hunting has reportedly emerged since the last week of the quarter, as investors look to add holdings at lower price levels.  

ASEAN

Additional sources of information have led to an upward revision in our data series for Indonesian bar and coin demand from 2020. 

The revision reinforces the picture of strength in Indonesia’s market over recent years: demand in Q1 doubled q/q. Gold’s safe-haven status has attracted investors burdened by concerns over economic uncertainty and inflation concerns. 

Investment in Thailand reached 10t - the strongest first quarter since 2019. Growing economic and political uncertainty, combined with the rising gold price, underpinned safe haven demand.

Vietnam was the regional underperformer, down 24% y/y to 9t – albeit a 31% q/q rise. The relatively muted quarterly total reflected record high prices. Domestic supply constraints have also been a challenge, pushing local premiums to eye-watering levels and encouraging investors to seek exposure to gold via quasi-investment Chi rings. 

Rest of Asia

In South Korea, bar and coin demand reached a record quarter for our data series. This extended the sharp jump in demand seen in Q4’25 as the gold price rise attracted investors, squeezing domestic supply and pushing local prices to a premium.

Japanese bar and coin investment surged in Q1, consistent with the strength of demand noted in the ETF market. Although small on an absolute basis, a second successive quarter of firmly positive net demand signals ongoing strength in this market. Once again, buying outweighed the continued elevated levels of selling back by Japanese investors. 

Australia

Bar and coin demand in Australia failed to match that of the previous quarter, but at 4t was nonetheless elevated compared with average levels seen in recent years. 

January saw a continuation of the Q4 gold rush, with investors often queueing outside bullion dealers, before momentum slowed in February in line with the price. March saw a sharp pick up in profit-taking activity as the price corrected lower and investors moved to lock in gains.