Outlook

29 April, 2026

Geopolitical factors are expected to remain front and centre in driving gold demand for 2026 and beyond. This supports continued central bank net buying, broad global gold ETF inflows, and bar and coin accumulation. Recycling is expected to see a restrained increase in 2026. High prices are likely to continue taking their toll on jewellery. Mine supply is expected to edge higher again in response to high prices and margins.

  • Government bond yields are likely to stay elevated until a clearer path for policy rates emerges as central banks grapple with supply shocks from the US-Israel-Iran war and a positive stock-bond correlation undermines the appeal of bonds as a hedge
  • The geopolitical risk premium that has helped lift gold over the past few years is set to continue and possibly expand as the year progresses
  • As a result, demand for gold ETFs and OTC could be positive but lower than in 2025. Bar and coin demand, on the other hand, is likely to feature more in 2026 as high prices, a lack of viable alternative investments in some markets, inflation fears and heightened uncertainty continue to attract both savers and speculators
  • Overall, Asian demand will likely remain a key source of strength in investment, as concern over global geopolitics fuels demand for effective risk hedges
  • Jewellery spend is likely to be resilient, absent economic shocks, but tonnage demand is expected to slip further as high prices, and regional tax policies, continue to bite
  • Central bank buying is expected to be solid at levels close to those in 2025. Demand shows good traction despite price volatility and continued geoeconomic risks could provide additional upside. However, periodic mobilisation of gold reserves on further supply shocks cannot be discounted
  • Mine production is likely to rise modestly again in 2026, although we are monitoring the effects of energy shortages on operations in some regions. Recycling is rising but is expected to be constrained by low near-market stocks, expectations of continued price strength, and a likely imbedded geopolitical risk premium.
 

Chart 2: Strong investor interest to offset weak jewellery demand; central bank buying remains solid; supply up modestly

Expected change in annual gold demand*

Strong investor interest to offset weak jewellery demand; central bank buying remains solid; supply up modestly

Strong investor interest to offset weak jewellery demand; central bank buying remains solid; supply up modestly
Expected change in annual gold demand*
Sources: Metals Focus, World Gold Council; Disclaimer *Data to 31 March 2026.

Sources: Metals Focus, World Gold Council; Disclaimer

*Data to 31 March 2026.

Investment

The geopolitical risk premium that has helped lift gold over the past few years is set to continue and perhaps expand as the year progresses with uncertainty about the new Federal Reserve chair, including the timing of his confirmation, as well as strained US-China relations all potentially contributing. And while questions have been raised about gold’s lack of positive response to the war in the Middle East thus far, this initial move is not unprecedented. However, we would expect a prolonged conflict or a wider spill-over effect on the global economy to provoke a more visible positive reaction from gold.

This is likely to support global gold ETF, bar and coins as it has done to date. However, ETF demand may not reach the heights of 2025 as rates may stay higher for longer. This is likely to weigh on gold demand from some investors, unless the Middle East crisis exerts a supply shock large enough to tilt economies towards recession.

The combination of these factors is likely to see investment demand remain positive but below 2025 levels.

Indian bar and coin demand and local gold ETFs started the year on a strong footing. The shift into investment is likely to continue in 2026 on the back of price momentum, geopolitical risk and relatively less attractive investment alternatives.

Broad Asian investment demand across the board, particularly in China, should similarly benefit from price momentum, rising safe-haven demand and a lack of alternative investment prospects.

Fabrication

Jewellery demand was softer than anticipated in Q1, leading us to downgrade our full-year expected fabrication figure. 

Persistent high prices (with y-t-d gains already matching last year) remain a headwind to global demand. And the potential for significant global economic fallout from the Middle East conflict may add to the pressure on consumer sentiment as well as the capacity for discretionary spending.

China’s recent VAT policy change remains an obstacle for jewellery demand in that market, likely funnelling further potential purchases towards lower-premium bars and coins; a trend that is also increasingly evident in India. 

 

Chart 3: Gold price in all currencies peaked in January followed by notable corrections; broad trend remains intact

Gold price in various currencies, indexed to 1 Jan 2025*

Gold price in all currencies peaked in January followed by notable corrections; broad trend remains intact

Gold price in all currencies peaked in January followed by notable corrections; broad trend remains intact
Gold price in various currencies, indexed to 1 Jan 2025*
Sources: Bloomberg, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council; Disclaimer *Data to 21 April 2026.

Sources: Bloomberg, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council; Disclaimer

*Data to 21 April 2026.

Central banks

Initial estimates of central bank net buying in Q1 are reassuringly robust, particularly in light of recent price volatility and notable mobilisation of reserves. But we don’t rule out further tactical rebalancing activity as a result of Middle East disruptions, liquidity needs and foreign exchange management. More generally, we view geoeconomic uncertainty as providing longer-term support to gold demand in the sector. Our full-year target remains similar to last year, between 700-900t.

Supply

Mine production is likely to see modest growth again in 2026 as high prices drive incremental increases in both the LSM and ASGM segments. Some production disruptions from diesel shortages may materialise in mines in Oceania and Asia which could temper this growth. And in the longer term challenges around finding, permitting, financing and building new LSM projects continue. 

Recycling

Recycling has started to pick up, perhaps partly on concerns about gold’s volatility and the squeeze on consumer wallets from higher energy prices. A prolonged stand-off between the US and Iran could elicit more selling back. And supply from India could jump if collateralised loans come under pressure. But if gold prices stabilise – and particularly if the path to higher prices looks to be more certain – the Q1 bump in recycling will more likely be a one off.


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