Gold Demand Trends: Q1 2026

Total gold supply increased by 2% y/y to 1,231t in Q1. This was driven by a 2% rise in mine production to 885t – an all-time Q1 high in our data series, which dates back to 2000 – and by a 5% y/y increase in recycling to 366t.

An estimated decline in the aggregate outstanding producer hedge book reduced total supply by 20t in the quarter, a larger reduction than in Q1’25.

As usual, there is room for future revision to the underlying elements of supply data: to production and hedging because not all mining companies have yet released their quarterly reports; and to recycling as the record price environment makes the task of accurately measuring exchange and recycling activity more challenging.

Mine Production

Q1’26 mine production was almost 2% above the previous first-quarter record of 871t set in Q1’23. Q/q, however, output fell by 9%, largely reflecting normal seasonal fluctuations.

Notable Q1 production increases – based on data available at the time of publication – were from the following countries:

• Mali (+30% y/y) with the restart of operations at Barrick Mining’s Loulo-Gounkoto operation following the resolution of a prolonged dispute between the mining company and the Government of Mali
• Indonesia (+19% y/y) due to a recovery in production from Batu Hijau following a sizable mill expansion
• Canada (+15% y/y) driven by numerous project ramp-ups including Equinox’s Valentine Lake, B2Gold’s Back River and Artemis Gold’s Blackwater operations
• Peru (+3% y/y) due to increased Artisanal and Small-Scale Mining (ASGM) output, while Large Scale Mining (LSM) volumes were steady.

In contrast, operations in some countries were hit by a mix of mining and geological factors, resulting in the following Q1 production declines:

• Namibia (-35% y/y) where the completion of open pit operations at B2Gold’s Otjikoto mine will see the operation’s output decline by more than half as lower grade stockpiled material is treated alongside underground ore
• Mexico (-12% y/y) where Newmont’s Peñasquito mine saw lower output due to a transition to Phase 8 operations and lower grade stockpile processing, and Equinox’s Los Filos mine remains suspended
• Australia (-7% y/y) due to lower-grade mining, adverse weather, and mines being placed under care and maintenance. Ramelius Resources placed its Edna May operation on care and maintenance in Q2’25, while heavy rainfall disrupted production at Mt Magnet in Q1’26
• China (-3% y/y) due to regional safety stoppages after a fatal accident at a mine in the Shandong province. 

Now that all listed companies have reported full-year production it is possible to fully assess industry trends for 2025. Last year gold production rose by 2% y/y to 3,815t, a new all-time record. Ghana (+34t, +22%), Russia (+15t, +5%), Chile (+12t, +33%) and Canada (+10t, +5%) saw the largest increases, while Indonesia (-36t, -26%) and Mali (-17t, -17%) saw the largest declines in production compared to 2024. 

Metals Focus, who provide mine production data, has made substantial revisions to estimates of output over the past decade. The revisions – which are due to improved data on ASGM output in a number of countries – have resulted in an increase in cumulative mine production of 621t since 2015. As Metals Focus directs more resources towards ASGM data gathering, further revisions to mine production estimates are likely in coming quarters as more complete data becomes available. 

In Q4’25, based on the latest data available, average all-in sustaining costs (AISC) for the gold mining industry reached a record high, up 20% y/y to US$1,706/oz. Higher operating costs, increased sustaining capital expenditure and lower gold sold contributed to this rapid rise, as did royalty payments tied to the gold price…itself up 55% y/y.¹

Recycled gold

Gold recycling in Q1 increased to 366t, (+5% y/y and unchanged q/q) as the gold price hit multiple new record highs. Recycling would have seen a more substantial increase except for a decline in the Middle East region – where the conflict between the US and Israel against Iran led to logistical issues – and in Europe and North America – where capacity constraints slowed recycling collection activities.

The following trends were observed during the first quarter:

• Recycling in India increased sharply, up 44% q/q and +20% y/y. To some extent the rise is due to base effects, as recycling volumes declined abruptly in Q1’25 and were relatively subdued for the balance of last year as jewellery buyers increasingly exchanged old gold jewellery for new. In Q1’26, the exchange share of jewellery buying remained elevated but eased slightly, contributing to higher recycling. The exchange of gold jewellery has no net impact on supply and this is not therefore captured in recycling data
• In China recycling volumes increased 3% y/y but were 22% lower q/q. Activity here was influenced by the introduction of 7% VAT on jewellery sales. Buyers can, however, offset much of this new VAT charge by trading in old gold jewellery. The resulting shift in purchasing behaviour may reduce recycling of old gold jewellery in the future, while increasing the exchange of old gold jewellery for new
• The Middle East saw lower recycling activity during the quarter (-5% y/y and -6% q/q). The inability to physically move gold to refineries reduced the willingness of some Gulf recycling centres to buy back recycled gold due to the risks of holding large stocks in a region beset by hostility. Capital constraints were also noted from buyers. Some countries in the region that were less affected by flight cancellations, such as Saudi Arabia (+9% y/y, -5% q/q) and Egypt (+5% y/y, +6% q/q), saw recycling volumes increase modestly
• In Turkey, local currency weakness and declines in other domestic asset prices increased the attraction of gold during the quarter and recycling volumes slowed sharply (-21% y/y, -15% q/q)
• Recycling activity in Europe remained high, +9% y/y -2% q/q; this was one of the regions where buyers of old jewellery were constrained by refinery capacity and financing limitations. Although these constraints were more notable for silver recycling, reduced shop hours or transaction sizes probably results in less gold recycling than would have otherwise been the case
• The United States also experienced recycling capacity limitations in Q1’26 with volumes up modestly (+6% y/y, -3% q/q).

The magnitude of the increase in gold prices around the world over the past year appears to have fed through into modestly higher recycling supply volumes in Q1’26. And there is a possibility that this activity will further accelerate over the next few quarters. Bottlenecks in recycling and refining capacity will ease over time, especially following the large correction in the silver price, and it is likely that alternative shipment routes will be established in the Middle East. We also expect more distress selling because of weaker domestic currencies in some markets, while higher energy (and fertiliser) prices could be important drivers of distress selling in some markets. We have already seen reports of higher activity in US pawn shops, for example.

We discuss our expectations for annual recycling supply in the Outlook section.