30 October, 2025
| Tonnes | Q3'24 | Q3'25 | Y/y % change | |
| Investment | 364.8 | 537.2 | 47 |  |
| Bar & Coin | 270.1 | 315.5 | 17 |
|
| India | 76.7 | 91.6 | 20 |
|
| China, P.R.: Mainland | 62.1 | 73.7 | 19 |
|
| Gold-backed ETFs | 94.7 | 221.7 | 134 |
|
The stellar gold price rise during Q3 was largely the result of an acceleration in investment demand across all formats – bars, coins and gold ETFs. Ongoing geopolitical turbulence and US dollar weakness continued to fuel safe-haven flows, with added impetus from growing concerns over US Fed independence and the US government shut down. And the surging price, in turn, attracted more investment flows, with investors spurred by FOMO, clamouring to build gold positions and benefit from further gains.
Y-t-d investment demand has reached 1,566t – just 6% shy of the peak seen in Q1-Q3’20. In value terms, however, we’re in uncharted territory: investment for the first nine months of the year amounted to US$161bn – well over double that of the same period last year (US$63bn) and 74% above the prior US$92bn record from 2020.
Investment demand has generated a significant share of total gold demand this year: bar, coin and gold ETF demand has accounted for over half of total demand so far in 2025, up from less than one third last year.1 This comes at the expense of jewellery, in part as some consumers chose to shift to the more cost-effective investment market to gain gold exposure.
Anecdotal reports suggest that there was widespread global interest in gold, particularly in September. The rise in net long positioning on COMEX during the quarter is indicative of this increased interest, which is captured in the 55t of OTC and stock flows in Q3. It’s worth noting that this figure also reflects any statistical residual from the balance of other demand and supply estimates in our model.
The investment-friendly environment for gold that has persisted throughout the year so far remains in place for now, given still-heightened geopolitical uncertainty, ongoing US dollar weakness and expectations for future US rate cuts. Added to which, richly valued equity markets have not only highlighted gold’s role as a diversifier, but also its role as a hedge against potential equity market corrections. The stage therefore looks set for continued strength in investment flows, a trend that has been observed so far in Q4.
Q3 was a record quarter for gold-backed ETFs. Global inflows reached US$26bn, eclipsing the previous quarterly record of US$24bn set in Q2 2020. In volume terms, Q3 demand of 222t took total holdings to 3,838t, just 2% shy of the 3,929t peak from November 2020.
Demand for gold ETFs has been a key contributor to gold’s price performance so far in 2025 and Q3 was no exception, particularly in September as the momentum behind inflows accelerated across all regions. And that also generated a ‘virtuous circle’, as investment flows were further attracted by the continued rise in the gold price.
North American-listed funds added 139t (US$16bn) during the third quarter, taking total regional holdings to 1,996t (US$246bn in AUM), around 100t shy of the record levels reached in October 2020.
European-listed funds added 70t, the strongest quarterly tonnage increase since Q1’22, yielding y-t-d demand of 148t.
Meanwhile, demand for gold ETFs listed in Asia remained positive but slowed markedly in Q3, to 13t. The region has now witnessed eight consecutive quarters of growth, during which holdings have increased by 200t to 334t. India saw the largest growth in Q3 (+11t). Japanese funds attracted 6t of inflows, which offset the 6t of outflows from China.
Funds listed in other regions barely changed, as outflows in South Africa balanced out growth in Australia.
Y-t-d, gold ETFs have added 619t (US$64bn). North American-listed funds absorbed the bulk of these flows (346t,US$37bn), although there was also sizable demand for ETFs listed in Europe (148t, US$14bn) and Asia (118t, US$12bn). Healthy demand has continued into Q4, with strong October inflows noted at the time of writing, particularly into US- and Asian-listed funds. Nevertheless, historical analysis suggests gold ETFs have still room to grow.
Global investment in gold bars and coins exceeded 300t for a fourth successive quarter – a feat not achieved since 2013.
FOMO was rife, particularly during September as the gold price rally really took off. This added to the already strong safe-haven flows driven by global geopolitical concerns, with further support likely from some jewellery consumers switching to lower-margin pure investment products. With only one or two exceptions, investment markets across the globe made strong y/y gains.
Bar and coin demand in Q3 extended the broad upward channel that has been in place since the lockdown lows of H1’22. Although down by a third compared with the strongest Q2 for 12 years, demand was bang in line with its quarterly five-year average and y-t-d – at 313t – is only 23t shy of its full year 2024 total.
Investment activity was relatively soft during July and August, as the gold price range traded and local equities surged. However, investor appetite was rekindled in September by the rallying gold price and fading equity momentum. And we believe that continued monthly announcements of central bank gold buying further supported investor confidence in gold during Q3.
So far in 2025, the key drivers of gold investment have been the unprecedented gold price rally, US-China trade tensions and concerns over the strength of domestic economic growth. With this in mind, we expect gold investment to stay strong as we head towards year-end. Continued flare-ups in US-China the trade conflict should keep safe-haven demand elevated; and the potential for rate cuts to stimulate decelerating economic growth should further support bar and coin investment.
The inclusion of Chinese insurers in the gold market following regulatory changes earlier this year should provide longer-term support for China’s gold investment demand. Public information available suggests that, as of Q3, six insurers in the pilot program have become Shanghai Gold Exchange’s members, paving the way for their gold allocation. As at the time of writing, however, no fund had disclosed purchases.
India saw sustained strong demand for gold bars and coins during Q3 as the rising domestic price attracted investors. A depreciating rupee through much of the quarter meant that the local price of gold continued to strengthen even when the international price was rangebound. This continued upward momentum in the price attracted investors keen not to miss out on the rally.
Y-t-d demand of 184t is the strongest for a first nine month period since 2013, and is just shy of the average post-covid full-year demand of 196t.2
The value of Q3 investment was exceptional, surpassing US$10bn. This is the highest quarterly value on record by some margin, 56% higher than the previous record of U$7bn from Q4’24.
While investment demand was consistently strong throughout the quarter, it accelerated in September, both as the price rally gained momentum and as the festive season drew closer. Anecdotal evidence suggests that some jewellery consumers may have opted for other ways to buy gold, such as bar and coins, which are closer to the local spot price. The surge in buying was reflected in the domestic gold price moving to a premium relative to the international price, a trend that has persisted so far into October.
Investment demand in the Middle East region followed a broadly similar pattern to other markets: relatively subdued in the first two months of the quarter before gathering pace in September as the price rally took off. The first two months of the quarter saw heightened levels of profit-taking as the gold price stabilised close to then-record highs.
Iran was an exception to the regional trend: demand earlier in the quarter was supported by safe-haven buying, which was choked off by the steep and rapid rise in local gold prices, which ultimately proved too financially prohibitive for many investors.
Meanwhile, in Turkey, investment demand was up from the very low base of Q3’24, but remains well below the heightened levels of the preceding couple of years. The high interest rates paid on lira savings accounts continued to draw investor attention away from gold.
Demand was particularly weak during July and August as the rangebound gold price encouraged profit taking, which was reflected in the local price moving to occasional discounts.
Demand ramped up sharply in September, quickly gathering steam and pushing local premiums up to above $100/oz. Demand has remained strong in the opening weeks of Q4, with premiums remaining very elevated.
The US gold bar and coin market witnessed another sharp decline in net gold investment demand – the only market to see a y/y decline in Q3. Demand sank to 7t – the lowest since the pre-covid 2017-19 trough. The weak Q3 figure, however, masks a very healthy level of two-way activity, as strong buying was met by continued profit taking.
Demand improved in September as gold breached new record highs, which stemmed liquidations as investors began to revise up their price expectations. The clarification in September that gold bars would be tariff-exempt further spurred demand. So far, buying interest has further accelerated in October, which could bode well for a strong net Q4 figure.
European retail investment extended the recovery seen in the first half of the year, driven by persistent geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Much of the rebound was concentrated in September, as gold prices surged to new record highs, with the rally attracting considerable media attention. This continued into October, particularly with the widely-publicised breach of the US$4,000/oz level.
German-speaking markets witnessed the strongest y/y improvement, although the UK also generated double-digit growth.
Markets across the ASEAN region saw almost universal double digit y/y growth in gold bar and coin demand in Q3. In line with the global pattern, the surging gold price combined with heightened global geopolitical concerns sparked strong investor interest.
Thailand saw its strongest quarter since Q1’19, while Indonesian investment reached levels not seen for over 12 years.
Vietnam was again the outlier. Investment was slightly lower y/y, although this was apparently not for lack of demand. Contacts report queues building outside gold stores, but a shortage of gold in the domestic market led to limits being imposed on the number of gold products per customer.
The Vietnamese government announced during the quarter that, effective 10 October, it would abolish the State monopoly on gold bar production and imports. This is expected to reduce the premium on domestic gold products.
Japan saw modest net buying in Q3. As the price reached new record highs in September, investors rushed to buy gold, but liquidations also remained sizeable throughout the quarter.
Since the end of Q3, as the local price broke up through ¥20,000/g, demand has exploded with stores reportedly running out of stocks of small bars.
South Korean investors were similarly attracted by the gold price rally, with domestic prices further fuelled by a depreciating currency. Y-t-d demand in Korea has reached a record high for our data series of 18t.
The gold price rally sparked a y/y jump in Australian gold bar and coin investment in Q3, a trend that has continued into October with some dealers apparently running out of stock and reports of long queues forming outside bullion retailers.
Modest profit-taking activity was noted in August and July, which dropped in September as price expectations grew increasingly positive.
| Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q/q % change |
Y/y % change |
|
| India | 76.7 | 76.0 | 46.7 | 46.1 | 91.6 | 99 | 20 |
| Pakistan | 4.1 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.3 | -10 | 5 |
| Sri Lanka | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Greater China | 63.9 | 86.2 | 126.7 | 118.3 | 76.6 | -35 | 20 |
| China, P.R.: Mainland | 62.1 | 83.6 | 124.2 | 115.1 | 73.7 | -36 | 19 |
| Hong Kong SAR | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 25 | 228 |
| Taiwan Province of China | 1.4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.9 | -21 | 34 |
| Japan | 0.1 | -0.9 | 0.2 | -0.5 | 0.9 | - | 626 |
| Indonesia | 7.6 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 10.2 | 76 | 34 |
| Malaysia | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 5 | 38 |
| Singapore | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | -19 | 47 |
| Korea, Republic of | 4.2 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 11 | 40 |
| Thailand | 12.1 | 14.6 | 7.4 | 10.0 | 15.1 | 51 | 25 |
| Vietnam | 7.9 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 7.7 | -19 | -3 |
| Australia | 2.5 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 3.2 | -12 | 30 |
| Middle East | 25.1 | 27.1 | 28.4 | 31.0 | 28.3 | -9 | 13 |
| Saudi Arabia | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 32 | 41 |
| UAE | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 3.4 | -18 | -6 |
| Kuwait | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | -21 | -5 |
| Egypt | 5.3 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 5.6 | -5 | 5 |
| Islamic Republic of Iran | 9.5 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 11.4 | -13 | 20 |
| Other Middle East | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.0 | -21 | 1 |
| Turkey | 12.7 | 23.5 | 20.2 | 15.3 | 14.3 | -6 | 13 |
| Russian Federation | 9.1 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 12 | 4 |
| Americas | 22.3 | 21.7 | 19.5 | 11.7 | 9.7 | -17 | -56 |
| United States | 19.9 | 18.6 | 15.9 | 8.8 | 7.2 | -18 | -64 |
| Canada | 1.8 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | -19 | 6 |
| Mexico | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 5 | -17 |
| Brazil | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 22 | 10 |
| Europe ex CIS | 18.2 | 23.2 | 27.3 | 28.3 | 28.7 | 1 | 58 |
| France | -0.3 | -0.5 | -1.2 | -1.1 | -0.4 | - | - |
| Germany | 3.5 | 8.7 | 10.5 | 10.9 | 9.8 | -10 | 180 |
| Italy | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Spain | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| United Kingdom | 3.5 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 28 | 18 |
| Switzerland | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 6.0 | -5 | 20 |
| Austria | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 35 | 106 |
| Other Europe | 5.8 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 7.9 | -3 | 35 |
| Total above | 269.1 | 313.6 | 324.8 | 301.7 | 310.0 | 3 | 15 |
| Other & stock change | 1.0 | 11.1 | 0.2 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 4 | 469 |
| World total | 270.1 | 324.7 | 324.9 | 307.0 | 315.5 | 3 | 17 |
Source: Metals Focus, World Gold Council
