Gold Demand Trends: Q3 2025

Total supply hit a new third quarter record

• Total gold supply in Q3 gained 3% y/y to reach a quarterly record of 1,313t
• Mine production – which typically sees seasonal growth in Q3 – was up 2% y/y and 8% q/q at 977t; also a record quarter for our data series
• The supply of recycled gold remained elevated at 344t, 6% higher y/y but marginally lower q/q despite the US dollar gold price surging 16% during the quarter.

The total supply of gold extended its long-term uptrend; Q3 marked a new record high of 1,313t. The 3% y/y rise was due to a combination of record mine production and elevated recycling, with a small negative contribution from hedging.

Gold supply y-t-d is up 1% y/y to a record 3,717t. Recycling has seen the largest growth rate over that time, increasing by 3% to 1,041t. The 47% increase in the US dollar gold price over the first nine months of the year has fuelled elevated levels of opportunistic selling among consumers keen to capitalise on gains.  

Mine production

Mine production saw its typical seasonal uptick in Q3, jumping 8% q/q to 977t and surpassing last year’s third quarter record by 2%.

Growth in output from both Canada and Ghana during the quarter outweighed y/y declines from Mali and Turkey. The following markets registered notable growth – largely from a combination of ramp ups or start-ups:

• Canada (+20% y/y), which saw the ongoing ramp up of Blackwater, Cote and Greenstone mines, as well as new production from B2Gold’s Back River project and higher output from a number of existing operations
• Ghana (+9% y/y), due to the continued ramp up of Shandong Gold’s Namdini operation, as well as first gold being poured at Newmont’s Ahafo North at the end of the quarter
• Australia (+6% y/y), where higher production at Gruyere, KCGM and Telfer outweighed lower output from Cadia, where the PC2-3 panel cave expansion project continues
• Russia (+3% y/y), on the back of higher production from a number of mines, which more than offset a fall in production from some of Polyus’ operations due to waste stripping.

Several countries witnessed a y/y fall in gold mine production, due to market- or mine-specific factors:

• Indonesia (-37% y/y), as a fatal incident prompted the suspension of operations at Grasberg in September. Waste stripping also resulted in lower production from Batu Hijau
• Mali (-13% y/y), where Loulo-Gounkoto remained suspended due to the continued dispute between owner Barrick and the Malian government¹
• Mexico (-5% y/y), with production at Equinox Gold’s Los Filos mine still suspended after the expiry of its land access agreement, and where a pit wall movement led to a temporary suspension of operations at Orla Mining’s Camino Rojo mine
• Turkey (-19% y/y), due to lower operations from several operations including Oksüt and Kisladag. 

The current rate of growth in mine production suggests a record annual total is within reach for 2025. That said, the continued closure of Grasberg will have a significant impact on production in Indonesia, making an accurate prediction more difficult than usual.

Metals Focus’ mine production data includes estimates for artisanal and small scale gold mining (ASGM). The contribution from this source is expected to grow in 2025, given the strong rise in the gold price while costs remain relatively well contained.

Average all-in sustaining costs (AISC) for the gold mining industry increased 12% y/y in Q2 to US$1,578/oz. The 2% quarterly increase in the AISC is partly explained by seasonal factors, with operations typically resuming at full capacity in the second quarter after scheduled shut downs in the first quarter. 

Higher sustaining capital expenditure, along with greater input costs and larger royalty payments tied to the higher gold price, further contributed to the y/y rise in the AISC. 

Net producer hedging

Unsurprisingly, in an environment where the gold price is repeatedly reaching all-time highs, gold mining companies have preferred to remain fully exposed to Q3’s rising spot gold price. Initial estimates suggest an 8t reduction in the global hedge book during the quarter. This follows a revised Q2 decline of 25t, down from the initial -7t estimate. Revisions to this data are commonplace, as Gold Demand Trends is published before many companies release their data. Gold mining companies, typically, are unwinding their hedged positions by letting the contracts expire naturally.

Our quarterly data series shows consistent de-hedging since Q1’24, during which time the hedge book has fallen by a total of 94t, to around 160t.

Recycled gold

Q3 gold recycling increased by 6% y/y to 344t. Given the 40% y/y rise in the average quarterly US$ gold price, the recycling response seems surprisingly muted. And this is put into sharper focus when considering the q/q change (one that is arguably more meaningful for recycling). Recycling volumes in Q3 were 1% down on those seen in the previous quarter, despite a 16% rise in the spot gold price between the end of June and the end of September. 

Typically, we would expect recycling to respond positively to such a strong price rise. But the size and speed of the gold price rally this year has, it seems, led to an expectation of yet more price rises. This has encouraged restraint in recycling activity in anticipation of further gains, both due to consumers holding back from liquidating and from Indian consumers increasingly pledging gold jewellery as collateral against loans. Moreover, selling prompted by economic distress remains limited, cushioned by relatively benign macro conditions across many major recycling markets.

Nevertheless, recycling volumes are elevated by historical standards. Y-t-d, supply from this source has reached 1,041t – the second successive year in which it has exceeded 1,000t. The only other time we have witnessed such persistent strength in recycling was in 2009-2012 during and after the Global Financial Crisis, when a combination of high gold prices and economic distress prompted a surge in activity. 

At a regional/country level, flows in Europe have driven much of the y-t-d growth in global recycling volumes, with Italy, Germany, France and the UK all witnessing double-digit growth. The regional supply of recycled gold in the first nine months of the year is around 40% higher than the average y-t-d volumes over the preceding 10 years.

Recycling in the US has been firming over recent quarters, albeit not to the same extent as in Europe. Instances of distress selling remain rare; instead, the key driver of growth is opportunistic selling to take advantage of the higher gold price. 

China was a key driver of the y/y growth in recycling in East Asia, largely due to the higher gold price and retail store closures, which have generated a continued flow of inventory for melt. The q/q comparison was contrastingly weak, as positive price expectations started to kick in and caused people to hold onto their gold in the hope of benefiting from further price gains.

India drove the y/y and q/q decline in South Asia as recycling in this key consumer market remained weak. The rates of exchanging old jewellery for new remain very high, and consumers also continue to pledge their gold jewellery as collateral for loans, capitalising on the high price. Both trends have resulted in lower volumes of gold being sold outright for scrap.

Recycling activity across the Middle East was universally higher q/q, reflecting the higher gold price and, in some instances, an element of distress selling. On a yearly basis, recycling supply is relatively stable, with gold serving its function as a hedge against geopolitical turmoil. 

Footnotes:

¹Operations reportedly restarted in October, having been shuttered since the beginning of the year: Mining.com | Barrick’s seized Mali mine restarts under state management | Oct 2025