Summary

• Shanghai Gold Benchmark price hit 319.2 yuan/gram – highest level since its introduction in April 2016
• Au(T+D)’s trading volume in June reached second highest level on record – 2,062t
• The local gold premium rose sharply 
• Imports continued to slide in May, dropping to 69t
• Gold withdrawals from Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) fell again last month 
• PBOC added a further 10t to its reserves in June

We will soon be launching two regular blog posts– monthly updates on India and China by Mukesh and Ray, our analysts in Mumbai and Shanghai. These monthly posts will provide a snapshot of the health of these two global heavyweights, which together account for around half of annual global consumer demand. 

Summary

• On 6th July, India’s gold import duty increased from 10% to 12.5% as part of a revenue-raising budget
• We believe it will have a negligible long-term effect on gold demand
• We think it may be a temporary measure: when the government’s books are in better shape we may see some of these tax increases rolled back
• The market will be supported by other government initiatives, including the structural reforms such as the India Gold Spot Exchange and plans to boost rural incomes

Having risen over 3% in May, the loco-China gold prices continued to soar in June. Au(T+D), the most liquid and margin-traded gold contract at Shanghai Gold Exchange, rose 8.71%, the best monthly performance in 3 years.