Gold Demand Trends: Q3 2026

Mine production

Q3’26 mine production increased 3% y/y to 1,071t, a new record high for the third quarter. With y-t-d mine production up 2% y/y, full year 2026 looks set to hit a new all-time high, barring widespread production disappointments during Q4.

Notable Q3 production increases – based on data available at the time of publication – were from the following countries:

• Canada (+22% y/y) where recently commissioned mines – including Equinox’s Valentine and B2Gold’s Goose – together with increased output from existing operations continues to drive country gold production higher
• Indonesia’s (+21% y/y) growth was attributable to improved ore grades and higher production volumes at PT Amman Resources’ Batu Hijau operation. Merdeka Copper’s Pani Gold contributed, achieving its first gold pour in February, while production recovery at Grasberg also helped
• Chile’s (+19% y/y) Gold Fields’ Salares Norte is now at steady mine production and newly commissioned projects, such as Rio2’s Fenix, contributed to strong growth
• Ghana (+13% y/y) where gold output from Africa’s largest gold producing country increased during the quarter thanks to Newmont’s Ahafo North mine and further growth in ASGM production.

In contrast, lower grades and sequencing factors saw lower Q3 production in some countries:

• Namibia (-29% y/y) mostly due to the transition of B2Gold’s Otjikoto mine from surface operations to underground mining at Wolfshag
• Turkey (-16% y/y) principally due to lower gold output from Eldorado’s Kisladag mine, which is on a downward trend due to ongoing waste stripping and the processing of lower-grade ore
• Australia (-12% y/y) where low-grade mine sequencing at several operations is estimated to have reduced country output. At Newmont’s Cadia, this was due to the transition to panel cave mining, as a result of which 2026 production is forecast to be 30% lower y/y
• United States (-7% y/y) where lower-grade mining at several operations, including Nevada Gold Mines and Kinross’s Round Mountain, weighed on US gold production during the quarter.

Metals Focus, who provide mine production data, has made further revisions to output estimates for the past decade. The revisions – which are due to improved data on ASGM output in four Latin American countries – have resulted in an increase of approximately 470t in cumulative global mine production since 2013. Out of the four countries subject to the revised data, Brazilian ASGM estimates contribute the largest cumulative share, although estimates from the other three countries, namely Guyana, French Guiana and Suriname, all saw increases to mine production estimates.

As Metals Focus directs more resources towards ASGM data gathering and more complete data becomes available we are likely to see further revisions to mine production estimates over coming quarters.

Based on the latest available data, which comes with a one-quarter lag, average all-in sustaining costs (AISC) for the gold mining industry reached a record high in Q2’26: up 8% q/q and 22% y/y to US$1,930/oz. This is the steepest annual rate of AISC increase since Q1’13, and a much more rapid rate of cost inflation than seen over the past five years (12% y/y), or since the beginning of Metals Focus’ cost database in 2012 (5% y/y). Gold miners have faced pressures from higher energy and consumable prices over the past year, while sustaining capex cost has also increased rapidly.

Net producer hedging

Net producer de-hedging is provisionally estimated at 17t in Q3’26, extending the sustained reduction of the aggregate producer hedge book since the start of 2024. The Q3 decline will likely reduce outstanding positions from 109t at the end of Q2 to approximately 92t. In the latest quarter, maturing contracts were delivered into and some outstanding positions were restructured, although in some cases put options were purchased to protect gold price downside. Legacy hedging contracts with agreed prices much lower than the current spot prices have impacted margins at a number of operations.

The continued contraction is consistent with producers having limited appetite to lock in future prices, particularly where existing hedges are well below current spot levels.

Recycled gold

Gold recycling in Q3 fell to 314t, (-8% y/y and -2% q/q), as the gold price lacked a clear trend during the quarter.

Recent themes in the recycling market continued in Q3’26. European and US recycling volumes remained elevated and increased both q/q and especially y/y, while volumes in other regions mostly declined in line with lower prices.

The following trends were observed during the quarter:

• Recycling in India remained depressed, unchanged q/q but much lower at -12% y/y. The weakness in recycling volumes was due to the lower gold price q/q, preference for pledging gold as collateral, and an increase in the exchange proportion, i.e. jewellery buyers fund – at least partially – the purchase of new items by trading-in old pieces. The exchange of gold jewellery has no net impact on supply and therefore is not captured in recycling data. Expectations of higher gold prices over the medium to longer term also contributed to depressed recycling levels
• In China recycling volumes fell 20% y/y and were 12% lower q/q. Activity here continues to be influenced by the introduction of 7% VAT on jewellery sales. Buyers can, however, offset much of this new VAT charge by trading in old gold jewellery. The resulting shift in purchasing behaviour may reduce recycling of old gold jewellery in the future, while increasing the exchange of old gold jewellery for new
• The Middle East saw slightly higher recycling activity in the third quarter, up 7% q/q, although levels remained relatively low, declining -14% y/y. Economic turmoil due to the conflicts in the region, along with expectations of currency devaluation in some markets, kept jewellery owners sidelined, with sales limited to distressed consumers
• Recycling activity in Europe increased 12% y/y but saw only a more modest rise of 1% q/q. European recycling of old gold jewellery has been strong over the past couple of years, which may be linked to relatively weak economic performance in the region
• The United States continued to see higher recycling volumes in Q3, +8% y/y and +3% q/q. Canadian recycling volumes are also elevated, up 10% y/y, although -21% q/q.

Recycling trends in Q3 reinforce our view that activity is more sensitive to recent movements in the gold price than to year-on-year comparisons. Although the average gold price in the quarter remained 23% above its Q3’25 level, it fell by 5% from the previous quarter. Recycling volumes have duly followed the more recent price direction, declining by 2% q/q and 8% y/y, consistent with the pattern seen in recent quarters.

The impact of increased energy prices, higher inflation and some evidence of growing unemployment have not yet triggered widespread signs of consumer distress-led selling of gold. Anecdotal evidence suggests that holders of gold expect prices to recover or, in countries with weak currencies, that gold will continue to help protect them from further economic turmoil. We discuss our expectations for annual recycling supply in the Outlook section.