Gold Demand Trends: Q3 2026

Investment demand remained healthy in Q3 despite falling y/y from the elevated level seen in Q3’25. Physically-backed gold ETFs added 211t as broad-based inflows lifted global holdings to a record high, with European-listed funds leading the quarterly increase.

This strength was partly offset by weaker bar and coin investment, which fell to a four-year low as rangebound prices, expectations that US interest rates would remain higher for longer, and rallying equity markets discouraged fresh buying. Even so, the year-to-date picture remained healthy, with China’s record demand helping to lift the global Q1-Q3 total to a 13-year high.

OTC and stock flows, the category which captures less visible elements of investment demand as well as any statistical residual from the data, was 143t in Q3. Although 43% higher y/y, this was less than half of the elevated Q2’26 levels.

ETFs

Physically-backed gold ETFs staged a strong recovery in Q3, more than reversing the Q2 outflows: holdings increased by 211t during the quarter to reach a record 4,256t. Globally, these products attracted a record US$31bn of inflows, with total assets under management rising 9% q/q.

The recovery strengthened as the quarter progressed. Global holdings increased by 23t in July, reversing two consecutive months of outflows, before jumping by 120t in August as buying accelerated across regions. Continued buying in September rounded off a very robust quarter.

European-listed funds led Q3 growth, adding 92t, the strongest quarterly increase since Q1’22 as investors across the region rebuilt positions following June’s sell-off. Concerns over inflation, fiscal sustainability and sovereign bond markets appear to have supported gold’s appeal as a portfolio diversifier. Although buying was broad-based across the region, UK-listed funds dominated: unusually persistent buying throughout the quarter generated Q3 demand of 53t. Strong contributions also came from France (16t), Germany (+13t) and Switzerland (+9t).

North American-listed funds returned firmly to positive territory in Q3, adding 81t and more than reversing the H1 weakness. Demand accelerated particularly sharply in August, when concerns around fiscal sustainability and currency market intervention combined with stronger gold price momentum to encourage investment. Buying continued in September as persistent inflation, concerns over equity valuations and greater bond market volatility likely helped to sustain demand, overriding the negative influence of higher Treasury yields, a stronger US dollar and a Federal Reserve rate hike – all of which would typically increase the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Asian funds recorded their third consecutive quarter of inflows, adding 34t. China was again the principal source of regional growth, as weaker domestic equities and falling government bond yields helped support gold’s relative appeal. Indian funds also attracted demand, adding 6t, and September saw positive flows spreading across the region, including Japan, South Korea and Singapore, highlighting the breadth of regional interest.

In India, mutual funds suspended fresh subscriptions into gold Fund of Funds (FoFs) in mid-October in a move likely aimed at curbing gold imports. Direct investment in gold ETFs and existing systematic investment plans is unaffected, so the near-term impact on Indian ETF flows is expected to be limited. FoFs nonetheless hold around a third of Indian gold ETF assets, so the suspension could slow new inflows.

Funds listed in other regions added 3t, with Australia accounting for the lion’s share and a smaller contribution from South Africa. Total holdings for the region reached an all-time high of 77t.

The fourth quarter has started on a positive note: global holdings have further expanded so far in October, with data suggesting more than 10t in additional demand.¹

Regional trends have diverged, however. European funds have attracted sizable inflows, supported by persistent political uncertainty, mounting fiscal concerns, and heightened volatility across local bond and equity markets. UK-listed funds continue to lead the region’s inflows.

Asian investors have further added to their gold ETF holdings – led by China, where weaker equities and declining government bond yields continued to enhance gold’s relative appeal. In contrast, North American gold ETFs have seen outflows despite falling yields, as the sell-off in technology stocks likely prompted some investors to raise liquidity from their gold ETF holdings.

Our October gold ETF flows report will be available soon on goldhub.com.

Bar and coin

Global bar and coin investment fell to a four-year low of 268t in Q3. A few factors discouraged investment buying, including the gold price broadly trading within a range, expectations for US interest rates to stay higher for longer, and rallying equity markets.

Demand value was more resilient, holding steady y/y at US$37bn despite the steep fall in volumes. Y-t-d bar and coin investment of 1,053t represents the strongest first nine months since 2013. In value terms, y-t-d demand of US$156bn is already close to the full-year 2025 total of US$157bn.

Weakness was widespread: China and Egypt were the only two major markets to see y/y growth. India accounted for 60% of the global y/y decline.

China

China was one of the few markets to grow. Bar and coin demand rose 7% y/y to 79t, although it was 26% below an exceptional Q2. Y-t-d demand of 393t is the highest on record, 11% above the previous high set in 2013 (353t).

In value terms, y-t-d spending of US$59bn already exceeds every full year in our data series. Q3 demand alone was worth US$11bn, up 32% y/y.

Demand was subdued in July but picked up in August as prices rallied. September was the strongest month, as the price pullback sparked bargain-hunting, especially when local prices dipped below RMB900/g.

Gold investment was also boosted by falling government bond yields and weak local equities: the CSI300 stock index recorded its worst quarterly performance since Q3’22. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) reported purchases for an eighth quarter in a row, and anecdotal reports suggest this further supported the market.

Looking ahead, we expect bar and coin demand in China to stay robust in Q4. Early feedback points to healthy bar sales over the October National Day holiday and demand should remain supported by geopolitical tensions, low local yields and a lack of attractive alternatives. Continued gold purchases by the PBoC would further boost confidence.

India

Indian bar and coin demand was 55t in Q3, down 40% from a robust Q3'25, but 9% higher q/q. The fall in value was smaller, down 20% to US$9bn.²

Investors responded to the gold price during the quarter. Bargain hunting emerged in July, as the gold price stabilised following a correction from the first quarter’s record highs.

The early August rebound further revived interest, but momentum faded as prices pulled back in September.

Part of the y/y weakness reflects the festival calendar: key festivals that boosted Q3 sales last year fall in Q4 this year. At the margin, some investors also appear to be switching from physical gold to digital gold, attracted by the convenience of accessibility and low minimum investment.

Middle East and Turkey

Middle Eastern retail investment fell 24% y/y to 22t. Iran saw the sharpest fall, with demand halving (-51%). The war continued to disrupt daily life, and prompted some selling of bars and coins to cover living and relocation costs. In the UAE, demand fell 15% y/y and 46% q/q, as investors remained on the sidelines in anticipation of further gold price weakness. Saudi Arabia was down 9%, with profit-taking prevalent in the subdued price environment and investors focused on domestic interest rates following the first hike since 2023 in September (+25bps). Egypt went against the regional trend, up 5% to 6t, as a weaker pound added to gold's appeal as a form of savings.

Turkish bar and coin demand fell 12% y/y and 39% q/q to 13t. Investors who bought at higher prices between January and May held back, and the August rally led to profit-taking rather than new buying. Local prices were at a discount for much of the quarter, only returning to modest premiums by the end of September, when bargain hunting emerged as the local price moved back towards TRY6,400-6,500/g (roughly equivalent to US$4,000/oz). Y-t-d demand is still 19% higher y/y at 59t.

US and Europe

US demand fell 40% y/y and was 45% lower q/q at 8t – its weakest quarter since Q4’19.

Demand for newly minted coins continued the weakening trend of the last couple of years. Added to which, continued profit-taking further weighed on net investment levels.

Low gold lease rates enabled dealers to hold on to coins they had bought back rather than send them for melting, which allowed new buying to be met largely from existing stock. Sales at one major retailer subsided from recent heightened levels, weighing on bars in particular.

European demand fell 31% y/y to 20t but was broadly stable q/q. The declines were widespread and sharpest in Eastern Europe. Swiss demand halved to 3t. As in Q2, disappointment at rangebound gold prices was the key headwind for investors, although bargain hunting was evident as prices neared US$4,000/oz. Small bars of up to 10g continued to gain share as affordability became more of a constraint.

ASEAN

Indonesian demand of 13t was down 25% compared with a very strong Q3’25, but y-t-d demand is still 17% higher at 51t. Thailand fell 20% y/y to 12t, although it rose 11% q/q. Products as small as 0.05g addressed affordability constraints and growing gold savings accounts kept investors involved.

Vietnam fell 23% y/y to 6t, after an investigation into the jewellery sector damaged confidence, although market feedback suggests Q4 opened on a positive note, supported by the start of the wedding season. Malaysia was down 13%; its 10% import duty on certain gold bars falls to zero from 1 November, which could support a Q4 recovery.

Rest of APAC

Japan recorded a second successive quarter of net selling (-3t). Prices were not attractive enough to bring in new buyers but were high enough to keep long-standing holders selling. Overall buying and selling activity fell to a multi-year low, although pockets of resurging demand were noted during August’s price recovery.

South Korean demand fell 22% y/y to 5t, as lower prices failed to generate sustained momentum and a brief pick-up in August faded. Some banks expanded their range of smaller gold bars to cater to different budgets. Y-t-d demand is nonetheless 30% higher at 24t.

Australian demand slid 32% y/y to 2t but rose 39% q/q. Levels of selling back subsided from Q2, but nonetheless remained high as long-term holders realised significant price gains. Cost-of-living pressures also forced some sales, while higher interest rates raised the opportunity cost of holding gold: the RBA has raised the cash rate to a 15-yr high of 4.60% so far this year.³