Gold Market Commentary

Gold fell in September by 4% to around US$1,743/oz. This was the second consecutive month of declines, with gold now over 8% lower y-t-d. Gold wasn’t alone. Treasuries, Corporates, US- and non-US equities all fell in September possibly as a result of deleveraging. The Q2 level of margin debt for equities was at a record high. It would be understandable if some leverage has been removed as we head into the historically volatile month of October. And it’s quite possible that this de-leveraging has affected most assets (energy and industrial metals excepted).

Gold ETFs reverse course in August driven by North American outflows

Gold-backed ETFs (gold ETFs) experienced net outflows in August of 22.4 tonnes (t) (-US$1.3bn, -0.6% AUM), as North American outflows outweighed inflows into European and Asian funds. Gold faced headwinds early in August as the dollar briefly strengthened and rising Treasury yields weighed on investment flows, triggering momentum selling shortly thereafter. Gold prices recovered late in the month, but it did not spur sufficient offsetting inflows, as global holdings fell to 3,611t (US$211bn) – the lowest tonnage level since May.

Gold Market Commentary

Transitory or not, inflation is already impacting consumers

Gold fell slightly during August, down 0.6% in US dollars, on modestly firmer interest rates following strong US jobs data.

Gold ETFs continue growth with slight inflows in July

Flows into global gold ETFs were marginally positive in July, with inflows of 11.1 tonnes (t) (US$669mn, +0.3% AUM). Inflows into European and Asian funds were mostly offset by outflows from large North American funds. Overall, the positive flows came alongside a recovery in gold prices, particularly in the latter half of the month amid concerns of uncertain global growth outlook and a reaffirmed commitment by central banks to continue easy money policies despite elevated inflation. Global Assets Under Management (AUM) stand at 3,636t (US$214bn), approximately 7% below the October 2020 record tonnage high of 3,909t.

Gold ETF flows slow in June but finish positive in Q2

Flows into global gold ETFs were mostly flat in June, with slight inflows of 2.9 tonnes (t) (US$191mn, +0.1% AUM). Inflows into North American and Asian funds were primarily offset by outflows from European funds. Overall, the positive flows came in spite of significant gold price weakness in the latter half of the month on the heels of a relatively hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook, suggesting that investors may have taken advantage of the lower price level to gain long gold exposure. Global Assets Under Management (AUM) stands at 3,624t (US$206bn), approximately 7% shy of the October 2020 record tonnage high of 3,909t.

Gold mid-year outlook 2021

Interest rates will likely remain key drivers of financial assets. Gold is no exception. Yet, the negative impact of higher rates will likely be offset by the longer lasting effects and unintended consequences of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies created to support the global economy. 

Gold ETF inflows catch up to gold price strength

Global gold ETFs added 61.3t tonnes (t) (US$3.4bn, 1.7% AUM) in May, reversing three straight months of net outflows. We believe this to be largely a function of investment demand increasing with the price strength of gold, along with renewed inflation concerns in the market, a weaker dollar and lower real yields. Global assets under management (AUM) stand at 3,628t (US$222bn). AUM is now only 9% shy of the August 2020 high of US$240bn and 7% shy of the October 2020 tonnage high of 3,908t.