2021 Chinese gold jewellery market insights: mainstream, younger and more transparent

Amid strong growth in the economy, a relatively stable gold price and the effective containment of the COVID-19 pandemic, China’s gold jewellery demand in the first half of 2021 totalled 338t, 122% higher than H1 2020 and in line with the H1 average between 2010 and 2019 – the pre-pandemic level. 

As demand started to normalise, Chinese gold jewellery market trends became clearer. In partnership with China Gold News we surveyed 542 local jewellery retailers in over 20 cities at different tiers across China in June and July (Chart 1). 
 

 

Chart 1: The 2021 Chinese jewellery retailer survey covers a wide range of cities at different tiers across the nation

The 2021 Chinese jewellery retailer survey covers a wide range of cities at different tiers across the nation

The survey’s city coverage*

The 2021 Chinese jewellery retailer survey covers a wide range of cities at different tiers across the nation
The survey’s city coverage*
*The survey covered the following cities: Tier1: Shanghai, Beijing; New Tier1: Changsha, Chongqing, Wuhan, Hefei, Shenyang, Qingdao, Zhengzhou; Tier2: Fuzhou, Guiyang, Jinan, Dalian, Yantai, Zhaoyuan, Quanzhou; Tier3: Linyi, Wuhu, Weifang; Tier4: Yingkou, Changele; Tier5: Zhongwei, Jinchen. The tiers of cities are classified based on China’s City-Tier Classification: How Does it Work? (china-briefing.com).

Sources: China Gold News, World Gold Council; Disclaimer

*The survey covered the following cities: Tier1: Shanghai, Beijing; New Tier1: Changsha, Chongqing, Wuhan, Hefei, Shenyang, Qingdao, Zhengzhou; Tier2: Fuzhou, Guiyang, Jinan, Dalian, Yantai, Zhaoyuan, Quanzhou; Tier3: Linyi, Wuhu, Weifang; Tier4: Yingkou, Changele; Tier5: Zhongwei, Jinchen. The tiers of cities are classified based on China’s City-Tier Classification: How Does it Work? (china-briefing.com).

 

From the survey we concluded that:

  1. Gold products maintained their dominance in China’s jewellery market
  2. The popularity of Heritage gold jewellery products surged 
  3. The per-gram pricing model is returning, prompting greater transparency 
  4. Retailers placed high hopes on young consumers  
  5. Private traffic and social media channels will become the primary marketing focus for retailers.

Moreover, we developed a model for drivers in local gold jewellery demand. With accurate estimation of in-sample data and projection of out-of-sample values, the model could be a useful tool for industry participants and audiences who are interested in China’s gold jewellery demand (Chart 2).

 

Chart 2: Our model provides accuracy in estimating both in-sample and out-of-sample observations

Our model provides accuracy in estimating both in-sample and out-of-sample observations

Modelled demand changes (green) and observed changes*.

Our model provides accuracy in estimating both in-sample and out-of-sample observations
Modelled demand changes (green) and observed changes*.
*As of Q2 2021. Estimated model parameters are as described in the full report. Source: Metals Focus, Shanghai Gold Exchange, National Bureau of Statistics, World Gold Council

Sources: Metals Focus, National Bureau of Statistics, Shanghai Gold Exchange, World Gold Council; Disclaimer

*As of Q2 2021. Estimated model parameters are as described in the full report.

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