
Featured Report
The LBMA Gold Price PM (US$) was marginally down in January, dipping less than 1% to US$1,795/oz. But this provides an incomplete picture of the interesting dynamics seen throughout the month.
Annual demand recovered across virtually all sectors – the notable exception being ETFs, which saw net annual outflows
Gold may face similar dynamics in 2022 than those from last year as competing forces support and curtail its performance.
Physically backed gold ETFs saw global outflows of 173 tonnes (t) (-US$9.1bn, -4.0% AUM) in 2021. Collective gold holdings were down 5% to 3,570t for the year, while assets under management (AUM) in value terms dropped 9% to US$209bn as net outflows were compounded by a 4% contraction in the gold price. Despite considerable outflows for the year, gold ETF holdings remain significantly above pre-pandemic levels, as they posted record inflows of approximately 875t (US$48bn) during 2020.
With very little mining and modest levels of recycling, India is heavily reliant on bullion imports to meet its domestic demand. Indian official imports have continued to grow despite high import duty with official imports averaging 760t over the last decade.
Gold-backed ETFs (gold ETFs) experienced net inflows of 13.6 tonnes (t) (US$838mn, 0.4% AUM) in November, the first month of positive flows since July. Inflows into North America and Europe well exceeded outflows from Asia, which saw negative flows for the first time since May. Global gold ETF holdings rebounded from year-to-date lows, increasing to 3,578t (US$208bn) as investment demand for larger gold ETFs returned amid decades-high inflation and heightened market volatility.
Gold rose 2% in November based on the LBMA reference price, rallying early in the month before giving up most of those gains in the following weeks.
Gold rose slightly in October, despite a risk-on environment and increases in short-term bond yields
Q3 gold demand down 7% to 831t
ETF outflows outweighed continued recovery in other sectors
Econometric analysis shows that rising income is the most powerful driver of Indian gold demand in the long term. This bodes well for gold demand as the economy is set to benefit from a demographic dividend: the IMF forecasts per capita GDP growth of 23% between 2022 and 2026.