Last week, markets absorbed strong US earnings and labor data, steady BoJ policy, weak Chinese factory activity, and stronger EU growth, reflecting mixed global momentum
Global equity markets mostly rose, driven by strong earnings and economic data. Bonds yields in the US and Europe climbed on positive economic reports. The dollar pared some losses and oil declined as OPEC+ decided to boost output.
Gold is taking a breather after hitting the US$3,500/oz resistance, a “typical” historical extreme- 25% above its 40-week average – cooling market sentiment and momentum were key drivers (see slide 5 & 6 for details).
We released our Gold Demand Trends report for Q1 last week: total demand (including OTC investment) rose 1% y/y to 1,206t, the highest Q1 since 2016.
Chart of the week – Q1 gold demand firms
Source: ICE Benchmark Administration, Metals Focus, World Gold Council Data to 31 March 2025.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Last week saw a raft of central bank announcements: the Fed, Sweden, and Norway kept rates unchanged, while China, the UK, Poland, and the Czech Republic cut. Meanwhile, trade tensions eased as the US reached a deal with the UK and began talks with China.
Global equities closed mixed amid hopes of tariff de-escalation, while Treasury yields rose, the US dollar strengthened and oil rose.
Despite reduced futures net longs and ETF outflows, gold rose amid highly bullish option market positioning.
China’s export growth decelerated in April but remained robust – while trade with the US declined, exports to ASEAN rose. Although the trade talk may ease tension, we believe the risk-induced premium of gold may linger.
Chart of the week – China shuffles the deck
Source: China Customs, World Gold Council Data to 30 April 2025. Note that due to data availability, we only singled out major trading partners instead of all export destination breakdown.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Last week, optimism from a US – China tariff truce and easing inflation was tempered by slower US spending, a sharp drop in China’s bank lending, and Japan’s economic slowdown, even as Europe posted strong growth.
Moody’s became the last of the three ratings agency to downgrade the credit rating of the US late on Friday. While the technical fallout may be minimal, it could usher in a sentiment hit on Monday.
Global equity markets rallied sharply last week, fueled by a US – China tariff suspension that lifted investor sentiment, while bond yields climbed and the US dollar strengthened; meanwhile, oil prices eased amid reports of progress on a US – Iran nuclear deal.
Gold has extended its setback for a test of a cluster of supports at US$3,138/oz – US$3,132/oz, including the 55-day moving average (see slide 6 for more).
Chart of the week – Mood(y) music sours?
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council Performance of S&P 500, Bloomberg US Agg Tsy index and Gold (US$/oz) prior to and after downgrades.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Investors need to be cautious of the risks of relying too heavily on historic correlations that are prone to change
When the bond-equity correlation flips from negative to positive, a larger allocation to gold is required to retain the initial level of portfolio risk.
Reasons and consequences of a spike in bond-equity correlation
Diversification across assets is important in the construction of resilient portfolios. And for many multi-asset investors, high-quality government bonds have been a reliable diversifier for equity risk - the two assets typically reacting differently to similar economic conditions. But this relationship appears to have broken down of late. In other words, the two asset classes are now the most correlated they have been since the mid-1990s (Chart 1).
Chart 1: Gold to the rescue in a positive bond-equity correlation environment
Bond-equity & Gold-equity rolling 24-month correlations*
*Correlations are computed using monthly returns in US dollars between 31 January 1973 and 30 April 2025. Indices used: MSCI USA Index, Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index and LBMA Gold Price PM. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
It is the higher inflation environment which has, to a large extent, weakened the appeal of government bonds as a diversifier. At core inflation levels below 2.5%, the correlation between US equities and US treasuries has been, by and large, negative, providing diversification. At levels above 2.5%, this relationship has historically started to break down (Chart 2).
Chart 2: Bond-equity correlation shifts as inflation rises
Rolling 3yr correlation of US equity and US treasury returns vs. 3yr average core inflation*
*Correlations are computed using monthly returns of MSCI USA Index and Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index from 31 January 1973 to 30 April 2025. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
The lessons here are twofold:
Investors need to be cautious of the risks of relying too heavily on historic correlations that are prone to change.
The current positive correlation between bonds and equities undermines fixed income’s value proposition as a portfolio diversifier.
What is gold’s optimal weight in a positive bond/equity correlation environment?
The shift in the bond-equity correlation has presented many investors with a fundamental challenge around how to approach diversification and portfolio construction. In fact, amidst this rapidly evolving market backdrop, maintaining a diversified portfolio can feel like chasing a moving target.
Let us now illustrate how this change in correlation results in increased portfolio risk and how, in order to retain the same level of portfolio risk, the optimal allocation to gold needs to rise. Chart 3 outlines a simple hypothetical portfolio made up of three asset classes. Using just three asset classes helps us isolate the impact from the change in correlations.1
A mean variance optimisation analysis suggests that, generally speaking, a change in the bond-equity correlation environment from negative to positive results in a deterioration to the risk-adjusted returns by shifting the efficient frontier downwards (Chart 4).
Chart 3: Hypothetical optimal portfolio in a negative bond-equity correlation environment
Asset allocation: 60% US stocks, 35% US treasuries, and 5% gold*
*Based on an optimised portfolio as outlined in “Gold as a strategic asset: 2025 edition. Source: World Gold Council
Chart 4: A positive bond-equity correlation reduces portfolio returns across various levels of risk
Efficient frontier in a negative and positive bond-equity correlation environment*
*The efficient frontiers are based on monthly data for the specified assets from 31 January 1973 to 30 April 2025 Source: Bloomberg, Portfolio Visualizer, World Gold Council
In other words, all else equal, a portfolio’s risk profile rises as the correlation flips from negative to positive. Moreover, bonds become a meaningful contributor to total portfolio risk in such an environment (Chart 5).
Chart 5: Bond’s contribution to portfolio risk rises in a positive bond-equity correlation environment
Risk contribution and total portfolio risk in different correlation environment*
*Risk metrics based on data from January 1973 to April 2025 Source: Bloomberg, Portfolio Visualizer, World Gold Council
And assuming that an investor’s risk tolerance remains the same, when the correlation flips from negative to positive, the optimal asset allocation should shift too, so as to remain in the pre-defined risk budget.
In fact, the ‘optimal’ amount of gold varies according to the bond-equity correlation environment. Broadly speaking, the analysis suggests that in a positive bond-equity correlation scenario, a larger allocation to gold is required to retain the initial level of portfolio risk (Chart 6).
Chart 6: More gold is required in a positive bond-equity correlation environment to maintain the same level of volatility
Hypothetical portfolios weights in a:
*Optimal weights based on a mean-variance optimisation using monthly data for the specified assets from 31 January 1973 to 30 April 2025. Source: Bloomberg, Portfolio Visualizer, World Gold Council
Another way of looking at this is through the lens of a risk parity optimisation which seeks to achieve equal contributions to risk across various asset classes. As the correlation between bonds and equities rises so does their contribution to portfolio risk. In this scenario the optimal amount of gold again needs to rise to redistribute the risks equally (Chart 7).
Chart 7: More gold is required in a positive bond-equity correlation environment to equalise the risk contributions of portfolio assets
Hypothetical portfolios weights in a:
*Optimal weights based on a risk parity optimisation using monthly data for the specified assets from 31 January 1973 to 30 April 2025 Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Conclusion
The negative correlation between returns from stocks and from bonds – once the cornerstone of a balanced portfolio is in a state of flux due to the volatile inflation backdrop. In terms of the implications for diversifying investor portfolios, it remains unclear where the equity-bond correlation will settle. But recent changes in the macroeconomic landscape call for a cautious approach. For those investors that don’t hold gold, this might prompt them to broaden their sources of diversification. For those investors that already hold gold, it might mean increasing their allocation. Especially if approaching geopolitical risks materialise and bring stagflationary concerns to the fore once again.
Footnotes
1While further analysis is required to determine the extent of gold’s increase in a broader portfolio, our previous research would suggest that is would result in a higher allocation due to gold’s effective diversification benefits across different environments.
Trade tensions flared up again last week amid a mixed global economic backdrop, with activities in the US, China, and India showing signs of strength, while Europe and Japan lagged. China cut rates while the US House passed a bill to extend tax cuts and spend more.
Equities, bonds, and the dollar retreated last week amid renewed concerns over the US debt and fresh tariff threats. Japanese ultra-long bond yields spiked on fiscal expansion concerns and thin liquidity.
Capricious US trade policy, renewed concerns of US debt sustainability and elevated geopolitical risks sparked rising safe-haven demand, pushing gold up notably last week.
The newly passed bill is projected to add US$3.8 trillion to the US debt through 2034. This happened when the long-term US Treasury yield rose to the highest in almost two decades and major credit rating agencies collectively downgraded the US.
Chart of the week – Nothing to see here
Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Bloomberg, World Gold Council 30-year Treasury yield weekly data to 23 May 2025.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
This episode of Unearthed was recorded on Wednesday, April 23.
In this episode of Unearthed, hosts John Reade and Joseph Cavatoni are joined by Reinhard Cluse, Chief European Economist at UBS, to explore the shifting dynamics of Europe's economy and the potential outlook for the months and years ahead. Reinhard discusses the structural challenges Europe has faced over the past decade and how these will influence the upcoming year.
The group also discuss how Europe's evolving landscape could impact global asset allocation, including a bullish forecast for gold. Tune in for a nuanced discussion on Europe’s economic challenges, opportunities, and its potential renaissance.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments. This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Gold is not currently classified as a High Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) under Basel III…
…but its performance during times of crisis rivals that of intermediate and long-term Treasuries
In this context, our analysis shows that gold is an HQLA in all but name.
Gold’s role in Basel III
The Basel III requirements were first published in 2010 but its implementation has been years in the making. Most provisions have been in place since 2019, but its most recent iteration, dubbed Basel III Endgame (or Basel 3.1), was due to take effect in July 2025. While it now seems that Endgame will be delayed,1 there has been renewed interest in the rules and implications of its framework. The role of gold within Basel III was no exception. But, not surprisingly, there were also a fair number of misconceptions.
In a recent article, Norton Rose Fulbright reviewed the Basel Framework and regulatory status of gold, covering gold’s treatment under Basel III through the perspective of: 1) regulatory capital; 2) capital requirements; 3) collateral requirements – for credit mitigation as well as clearing counterparties and derivatives; and 4) liquidity requirements.2
The LBMA also set out to correct misleading information circulating online, highlighting that while gold carries a 0% risk weight for purposes of capital requirements under the Risk Weighted Asset rules,3 and can be used as collateral with a 20% haircut, it is not currently defined as an HQLA for purposes of the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and with an 85% Required Stable Funding (RSF) under the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR).4
What’s in a name? A practical perspective of HQLAs
Despite not being officially recognised as an HQLA, gold surely behaves like one. Over the years, we have collaborated with academics and the LBMA in multiple studies that have shown that gold meets many of the criteria that determine HQLAs.
These characteristics, as defined in the Basel Framework, are divided into two categories: fundamental and market related.
Ease and certainty of valuation – while gold does not fit common valuation models used for bonds or some stocks, its behaviour is determined by market equilibrium with readily available market prices
Most recently, in their February 2025 paper Is Gold a High-Quality Liquid Asset? Baur et al. show that gold is among the most liquid assets across a sample of top tier government bonds, and that its performance does resemble that of an HQLA.5
Given that one of the key attributes of an HQLA is its behaviour – and usefulness – in periods of heightened risk, we have used the principles established by Baur et al. and analysed gold’s market characteristics over the past six months. This period has been marked by high levels of uncertainty and volatility, as well as a less-than-stellar performance by US Treasuries…the epitomes of HQLAs.
Our report Gold: an HQLA in all but name finds that over the past six months gold has shown characteristics associated with HQLAs, including:
Volatility: gold demonstrated comparable or superior stability to intermediate and long-term US Treasuries during recent market shocks, highlighting its lower-than-assumed volatility profile
Spreads: gold’s bid-ask spreads remained narrow – or normalised quickly – during periods of market stress, rivalling those seen in 10- and 30-year US Treasuries
Volume: gold’s robust daily trading volumes rival those of 10-year US Treasuries, reinforcing its status as a deep and actively traded market.
The report also contrasts gold’s behaviour with that of equities, some of which may technically qualify as Level 2B assets under Basel III. Yet, gold outperforms them in virtually every metric.
In sum
While gold is not currently classified as an HQLA under Basel III and there are no announcements of prospective changes, there’s also overwhelming evidence that gold does behave like one. Whenever the rules are revised, we believe regulatory authorities should revisit their initial decision and reconsider gold’s standing.
Chart 1: Gold’s volatility factor is in line with, if not more favourable than, US Treasuries during periods of turmoil
Level 1 HQLAs (10-year and 30-year US Treasuries) and gold intraday volatility*
*Daily volatility computed using returns on 1-minute data increments from 6 November 2024 to 30 April 2025. Gold based on spot price (XAU) in US$/oz. US Treasuries based on “on-the-run” (OTR) 10-year and 30-year notes, respectively. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
3Wording amended to avoid confusion between regulatory capital and gold’s treatment as a zero-weight asset as explained by Norton Rose Fulbright (see footnote 2).
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Last week, markets were dominated by a mix of tariff headlines and strong US tech earnings. Meanwhile, inflation cooled in the US and Europe but picked up in Japan.
Global stock markets ended the week mostly higher, supported by upbeat earnings, easing inflation data and a bounce in US consumer sentiment. Treasury yields retreated and the DXY dollar index stayed under pressure below 100, and oil prices fell on expectations of increased OPEC+ supply.
Gold extended its consolidation after its move to its “typical” historical overbought extreme in late April (see slide 6). This remains a healthy pause in the core uptrend, with the USD also expected to eventually resume its core downtrend (see Appendix 1). Global economic data surprises in goldilocks territory (Slide 14) has helped add some soft pressure on gold. Although a surprise strike by Ukraine deep inside Russia and a populist election victory in Poland has markets on edge early Monday with gold up 2% in early trading.
Chart of the week – Dollar and bonds out-of-step waltz continues
Data to 02 June 2025. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Weekly Markets Monitor: All hands on gold
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
Chart of the week – Q1 gold demand firms
Source: ICE Benchmark Administration, Metals Focus, World Gold Council
Data to 31 March 2025.
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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Weekly Markets Monitor: Trade Progress?
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
China’s export growth decelerated in April but remained robust – while trade with the US declined, exports to ASEAN rose. Although the trade talk may ease tension, we believe the risk-induced premium of gold may linger.
Chart of the week – China shuffles the deck
Source: China Customs, World Gold Council
Data to 30 April 2025. Note that due to data availability, we only singled out major trading partners instead of all export destination breakdown.
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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Weekly Markets Monitor: Risk premium down
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
Chart of the week – Mood(y) music sours?
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Performance of S&P 500, Bloomberg US Agg Tsy index and Gold (US$/oz) prior to and after downgrades.
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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You asked, we answered: Gold's optimal portfolio weight in a higher correlated environment?
Jeremy De Pessemier
Asset Allocation Strategist World Gold CouncilHighlights
Reasons and consequences of a spike in bond-equity correlation
Diversification across assets is important in the construction of resilient portfolios. And for many multi-asset investors, high-quality government bonds have been a reliable diversifier for equity risk - the two assets typically reacting differently to similar economic conditions. But this relationship appears to have broken down of late. In other words, the two asset classes are now the most correlated they have been since the mid-1990s (Chart 1).
Chart 1: Gold to the rescue in a positive bond-equity correlation environment
Bond-equity & Gold-equity rolling 24-month correlations*
*Correlations are computed using monthly returns in US dollars between 31 January 1973 and 30 April 2025. Indices used: MSCI USA Index, Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index and LBMA Gold Price PM.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
It is the higher inflation environment which has, to a large extent, weakened the appeal of government bonds as a diversifier. At core inflation levels below 2.5%, the correlation between US equities and US treasuries has been, by and large, negative, providing diversification. At levels above 2.5%, this relationship has historically started to break down (Chart 2).
Chart 2: Bond-equity correlation shifts as inflation rises
Rolling 3yr correlation of US equity and US treasury returns vs. 3yr average core inflation*
*Correlations are computed using monthly returns of MSCI USA Index and Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index from 31 January 1973 to 30 April 2025.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
The lessons here are twofold:
What is gold’s optimal weight in a positive bond/equity correlation environment?
The shift in the bond-equity correlation has presented many investors with a fundamental challenge around how to approach diversification and portfolio construction. In fact, amidst this rapidly evolving market backdrop, maintaining a diversified portfolio can feel like chasing a moving target.
Let us now illustrate how this change in correlation results in increased portfolio risk and how, in order to retain the same level of portfolio risk, the optimal allocation to gold needs to rise. Chart 3 outlines a simple hypothetical portfolio made up of three asset classes. Using just three asset classes helps us isolate the impact from the change in correlations.1
A mean variance optimisation analysis suggests that, generally speaking, a change in the bond-equity correlation environment from negative to positive results in a deterioration to the risk-adjusted returns by shifting the efficient frontier downwards (Chart 4).
Chart 3: Hypothetical optimal portfolio in a negative bond-equity correlation environment
Asset allocation: 60% US stocks, 35% US treasuries, and 5% gold*
*Based on an optimised portfolio as outlined in “Gold as a strategic asset: 2025 edition.
Source: World Gold Council
Chart 4: A positive bond-equity correlation reduces portfolio returns across various levels of risk
Efficient frontier in a negative and positive bond-equity correlation environment*
*The efficient frontiers are based on monthly data for the specified assets from 31 January 1973 to 30 April 2025
Source: Bloomberg, Portfolio Visualizer, World Gold Council
In other words, all else equal, a portfolio’s risk profile rises as the correlation flips from negative to positive. Moreover, bonds become a meaningful contributor to total portfolio risk in such an environment (Chart 5).
Chart 5: Bond’s contribution to portfolio risk rises in a positive bond-equity correlation environment
Risk contribution and total portfolio risk in different correlation environment*
*Risk metrics based on data from January 1973 to April 2025
Source: Bloomberg, Portfolio Visualizer, World Gold Council
And assuming that an investor’s risk tolerance remains the same, when the correlation flips from negative to positive, the optimal asset allocation should shift too, so as to remain in the pre-defined risk budget.
In fact, the ‘optimal’ amount of gold varies according to the bond-equity correlation environment. Broadly speaking, the analysis suggests that in a positive bond-equity correlation scenario, a larger allocation to gold is required to retain the initial level of portfolio risk (Chart 6).
Chart 6: More gold is required in a positive bond-equity correlation environment to maintain the same level of volatility
Hypothetical portfolios weights in a:
*Optimal weights based on a mean-variance optimisation using monthly data for the specified assets from 31 January 1973 to 30 April 2025.
Source: Bloomberg, Portfolio Visualizer, World Gold Council
Another way of looking at this is through the lens of a risk parity optimisation which seeks to achieve equal contributions to risk across various asset classes. As the correlation between bonds and equities rises so does their contribution to portfolio risk. In this scenario the optimal amount of gold again needs to rise to redistribute the risks equally (Chart 7).
Chart 7: More gold is required in a positive bond-equity correlation environment to equalise the risk contributions of portfolio assets
Hypothetical portfolios weights in a:
*Optimal weights based on a risk parity optimisation using monthly data for the specified assets from 31 January 1973 to 30 April 2025
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Conclusion
The negative correlation between returns from stocks and from bonds – once the cornerstone of a balanced portfolio is in a state of flux due to the volatile inflation backdrop. In terms of the implications for diversifying investor portfolios, it remains unclear where the equity-bond correlation will settle. But recent changes in the macroeconomic landscape call for a cautious approach. For those investors that don’t hold gold, this might prompt them to broaden their sources of diversification. For those investors that already hold gold, it might mean increasing their allocation. Especially if approaching geopolitical risks materialise and bring stagflationary concerns to the fore once again.
Footnotes
1While further analysis is required to determine the extent of gold’s increase in a broader portfolio, our previous research would suggest that is would result in a higher allocation due to gold’s effective diversification benefits across different environments.
Weekly Markets Monitor: Risks up again
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
Chart of the week – Nothing to see here
Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Bloomberg, World Gold Council
30-year Treasury yield weekly data to 23 May 2025.
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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Unearthed: EU Economic Outlooks & Potential Renaissance, ft. Reinhard Cluse, UBS
Unearthed Podcast
World Gold CouncilThis episode of Unearthed was recorded on Wednesday, April 23.
In this episode of Unearthed, hosts John Reade and Joseph Cavatoni are joined by Reinhard Cluse, Chief European Economist at UBS, to explore the shifting dynamics of Europe's economy and the potential outlook for the months and years ahead. Reinhard discusses the structural challenges Europe has faced over the past decade and how these will influence the upcoming year.
The group also discuss how Europe's evolving landscape could impact global asset allocation, including a bullish forecast for gold. Tune in for a nuanced discussion on Europe’s economic challenges, opportunities, and its potential renaissance.
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
You asked, we answered: Does gold qualify as an HQLA under Basel III?
Mike Oswin
Global Head, Market Structure and Innovation World Gold CouncilJuan Carlos Artigas
Regional CEO (Americas) and Global Head of Research World Gold CouncilPlease note: this blog post was updated 6th June, 2025.
Highlights
Gold’s role in Basel III
The Basel III requirements were first published in 2010 but its implementation has been years in the making. Most provisions have been in place since 2019, but its most recent iteration, dubbed Basel III Endgame (or Basel 3.1), was due to take effect in July 2025. While it now seems that Endgame will be delayed,1 there has been renewed interest in the rules and implications of its framework. The role of gold within Basel III was no exception. But, not surprisingly, there were also a fair number of misconceptions.
In a recent article, Norton Rose Fulbright reviewed the Basel Framework and regulatory status of gold, covering gold’s treatment under Basel III through the perspective of: 1) regulatory capital; 2) capital requirements; 3) collateral requirements – for credit mitigation as well as clearing counterparties and derivatives; and 4) liquidity requirements.2
The LBMA also set out to correct misleading information circulating online, highlighting that while gold carries a 0% risk weight for purposes of capital requirements under the Risk Weighted Asset rules,3 and can be used as collateral with a 20% haircut, it is not currently defined as an HQLA for purposes of the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and with an 85% Required Stable Funding (RSF) under the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR).4
What’s in a name? A practical perspective of HQLAs
Despite not being officially recognised as an HQLA, gold surely behaves like one. Over the years, we have collaborated with academics and the LBMA in multiple studies that have shown that gold meets many of the criteria that determine HQLAs.
These characteristics, as defined in the Basel Framework, are divided into two categories: fundamental and market related.
Fundamental characteristics include:
Market related characteristics include:
Most recently, in their February 2025 paper Is Gold a High-Quality Liquid Asset? Baur et al. show that gold is among the most liquid assets across a sample of top tier government bonds, and that its performance does resemble that of an HQLA.5
Given that one of the key attributes of an HQLA is its behaviour – and usefulness – in periods of heightened risk, we have used the principles established by Baur et al. and analysed gold’s market characteristics over the past six months. This period has been marked by high levels of uncertainty and volatility, as well as a less-than-stellar performance by US Treasuries…the epitomes of HQLAs.
Our report Gold: an HQLA in all but name finds that over the past six months gold has shown characteristics associated with HQLAs, including:
The report also contrasts gold’s behaviour with that of equities, some of which may technically qualify as Level 2B assets under Basel III. Yet, gold outperforms them in virtually every metric.
In sum
While gold is not currently classified as an HQLA under Basel III and there are no announcements of prospective changes, there’s also overwhelming evidence that gold does behave like one. Whenever the rules are revised, we believe regulatory authorities should revisit their initial decision and reconsider gold’s standing.
Chart 1: Gold’s volatility factor is in line with, if not more favourable than, US Treasuries during periods of turmoil
Level 1 HQLAs (10-year and 30-year US Treasuries) and gold intraday volatility*
*Daily volatility computed using returns on 1-minute data increments from 6 November 2024 to 30 April 2025. Gold based on spot price (XAU) in US$/oz. US Treasuries based on “on-the-run” (OTR) 10-year and 30-year notes, respectively.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Footnotes
1Basel III endgame: The specter of global regulatory fragmentation, Atlantic Council, 13 May 2025.
2The Basel Framework and regulatory status of gold: Clarifying the status-quo, Norton Rose Fulbright, May 2025.
3Wording amended to avoid confusion between regulatory capital and gold’s treatment as a zero-weight asset as explained by Norton Rose Fulbright (see footnote 2).
4Gold and HQLA: Correcting Misleading Online Information, LBMA, 14 May 2025.
5Is Gold a High-Quality Liquid Asset? Baur, Gornall, Hoang, Palmberg, 12 February 2025.
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
Weekly Markets Monitor: Relative market calm
Weekly Markets Monitor
Highlights
Chart of the week – Dollar and bonds out-of-step waltz continues
Data to 02 June 2025. Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
Disclaimer
Important information and disclaimers
© 2025 World Gold Council. All rights reserved. World Gold Council and the Circle device are trademarks of the World Gold Council or its affiliates.
All references to LBMA Gold Price are used with the permission of ICE Benchmark Administration Limited and have been provided for informational purposes only. ICE Benchmark Administration Limited accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy of the prices or the underlying product to which the prices may be referenced. Other content is the intellectual property of the respective third party and all rights are reserved to them.
Reproduction or redistribution of any of this information is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of World Gold Council or the appropriate copyright owners, except as specifically provided below. Information and statistics are copyright © and/or other intellectual property of the World Gold Council or its affiliates or third-party providers identified herein. All rights of the respective owners are reserved.
The use of the statistics in this information is permitted for the purposes of review and commentary (including media commentary) in line with fair industry practice, subject to the following two pre-conditions: (i) only limited extracts of data or analysis be used; and (ii) any and all use of these statistics is accompanied by a citation to World Gold Council and, where appropriate, to Metals Focus or other identified copyright owners as their source. World Gold Council is affiliated with Metals Focus.
The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information nor accept responsibility for any losses or damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of this information.
This information is for educational purposes only and by receiving this information, you agree with its intended purpose. Nothing contained herein is intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or offer for the purchase or sale of gold, any gold-related products or services or any other products, services, securities or financial instruments (collectively, “Services”). This information does not take into account any investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person.
Diversification does not guarantee any investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The resulting performance of any investment outcomes that can be generated through allocation to gold are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. The World Gold Council and its affiliates do not guarantee or warranty any calculations and models used in any hypothetical portfolios or any outcomes resulting from any such use. Investors should discuss their individual circumstances with their appropriate investment professionals before making any decision regarding any Services or investments.
This information may contain forward-looking statements, such as statements which use the words “believes”, “expects”, “may”, or “suggests”, or similar terminology, which are based on current expectations and are subject to change. Forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that any forward-looking statements will be achieved. World Gold Council and its affiliates assume no responsibility for updating any forward-looking statements.
Information regarding QaurumSM and the Gold Valuation Framework
Note that the resulting performance of various investment outcomes that can be generated through use of Qaurum, the Gold Valuation Framework and other information are hypothetical in nature, may not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Neither World Gold Council (including its affiliates) nor Oxford Economics provides any warranty or guarantee regarding the functionality of the tool, including without limitation any projections, estimates or calculations.
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Get email updates