Gold Outlook 2022
Gold may face similar dynamics in 2022 than those from last year as competing forces support and curtail its performance.
Gold ETFs had net outflows of US$9bn in 2021 led by North American funds
Physically backed gold ETFs saw global outflows of 173 tonnes (t) (-US$9.1bn, -4.0% AUM) in 2021. Collective gold holdings were down 5% to 3,570t for the year, while assets under management (AUM) in value terms dropped 9% to US$209bn as net outflows were compounded by a 4% contraction in the gold price. Despite considerable outflows for the year, gold ETF holdings remain significantly above pre-pandemic levels, as they posted record inflows of approximately 875t (US$48bn) during 2020.
The launch of the James Webb Space Telescope
On the 24th of December 2021, the James Webb Space Telescope will be launched (weather permitting) and ultimately give humanity the opportunity to understand even more about the universe. Gold, a metal that was born in the stars billions of years ago, has long played a critical role in space exploration - the JWST included.
India’s gold market in November: retail demand remained robust but imports declined
Retail gold demand in India remained robust in the month, buoyed by festival and wedding purchases. Official imports declined m-o-m due to a higher gold price and ample stocks, and the local market flipped back to discount.
China’s gold market in November: wholesale gold demand up, ETF holdings down
The Shanghai-London gold price spread fell amid a weaker local gold price
The LBMA Gold Price PM finished November slightly higher as declines towards the end of the month wiped off earlier rallies. While the LBMA Gold Price AM in USD – which we normally use when comparing to the Chinese local gold price ‒ increased by 0.1%, the SHAUPM in CNY saw a minor drop of 0.3%. The appreciating CNY against the dollar and a steadily rising equity market may have contributed to the underperformance of the RMB gold price.
Bullion trade: India gold market series
With very little mining and modest levels of recycling, India is heavily reliant on bullion imports to meet its domestic demand. Indian official imports have continued to grow despite high import duty with official imports averaging 760t over the last decade.
Gold ETF flows turn positive in November led by North American funds
Gold-backed ETFs (gold ETFs) experienced net inflows of 13.6 tonnes (t) (US$838mn, 0.4% AUM) in November, the first month of positive flows since July. Inflows into North America and Europe well exceeded outflows from Asia, which saw negative flows for the first time since May. Global gold ETF holdings rebounded from year-to-date lows, increasing to 3,578t (US$208bn) as investment demand for larger gold ETFs returned amid decades-high inflation and heightened market volatility.
Gold miners’ AISC reach their highest since 2013
All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) across the gold mining industry averaged US$1,123/oz in Q3’21, a rise of 4% q-o-q and the highest level since 2013. This is the fourth consecutive quarter of cost growth, with the average AISC up a significant 16% since the corresponding quarter in 2020.
