Gold Market Structure and Trends

Quarterly gold demand rose to a record in tandem with the price.  Growth was primarily from accelerating investment demand, which accelerated on a powerful combination of safe haven buying in an uncertain geopolitical environment, US dollar weakness and investor “FOMO” as the price continued to climb. 

To explore current trends and future opportunities we conducted our 2025 annual Chinese jewellery retailer research in partnership with China Gold News for the sixth consecutive year. Through the lens of the retailer we found that gold products continue to dominate Chinese jewellery retailer sales while Heritage and Hard Pure gold jewellery products remain key sources of retailers’ profit. Buying for self-indulgent wear remains key in retailer jewellery sales. Retailer optimism around gold product sales is intact and self-indulgent buying may continue to drive business in the future.

Global physically backed gold ETFs recorded their largest monthly inflow in September (US$17bn), resulting in the strongest quarter on record of US$26bn. North American (US$10.6bn) and European funds (US$4.4bn) drove the bulk of inflows. Followed by Asia (US$2.1bn) and other regions (US$175mn). Supported by a rallying gold price, global gold ETFs’ total AUM rose 23% q/q to US$472bn, reaching another record, and holdings rose 6% q/q to 3,838t.

In this investor research report, we explore Japanese investors’ attitudes to gold, such as gold’s shares in their portfolios, barriers to their gold allocation decisions and the potential for gold investment in the future. By assessing the current macro backdrop in Japan and studying local investors’ top needs, we believe gold has the potential to become a more relevant strategic asset in Japanese investors’ portfolios.

Global physically backed gold ETFs saw inflows three months in a row, adding US$5.5bn in August. North American and European funds led inflows while Asia experienced continued outflows. Supported by continued inflows and a higher gold price, global gold ETFs’ total AUM rose 5% to US$407bn, another month-end record. Meanwhile, holdings rebounded 53t to 3,692t.

Global physically backed gold ETFs saw continued inflows, adding US$3.2bn in July, mainly from North America and Europe. Continued inflows and a higher gold price pushed global gold ETFs’ total AUM 1% higher to US$386bn whilst holdings rose by 23t to 3,639t.

US demand fell 34% q/q to 124t, but the decline was partially offset by strong gold-backed ETF demand. NA ETF inflows reached $21bn in H1 and are currently on pace for their second strongest year on record. Bullion exports started the year off strong with the US exporting ~268t through May, and are on pace to surpass 2024 volumes.

A second quarter of significant investment in gold-backed ETFs, along with elevated bar and coin buying, drove total Q2 gold demand up 3% y/y to 1,249t. Meanwhile, jewellery consumption weakened further in the face of record gold prices.