Gold Demand Trends: Q4 and Full Year 2025

Jewellery demand volumes declined y/y in all markets across the globe – unsurprising in the context of gold’s multiple all-time highs throughout 2025. 

The opposite was true of demand measured in value terms, with all markets seeing an increase as the higher gold price more than offset the volume decline. 

The remarkable gold price rise in 2025 inevitably imposed affordability constraints on jewellery consumers the world over. It did not, however, stifle consumer appetite for jewellery – as evidenced by the sharp jump in demand value during the year, with consumers spending a larger share of wallet on gold. 

China

Q4 marked a weak end to a weak year for Chinese gold jewellery demand. Demand volumes sank to their lowest for more than 15 years as VAT reform, a lacklustre economy and a late Chinese New Year compounded the impact of the record gold price.

Collective annual spending on gold jewellery reached US$39bn, 8% higher y/y and the second highest on record behind the US$43bn from 2013.

As well as the rising gold price, consumers’ conservative stance towards spending – shaped by domestic economic uncertainty and heightened geopolitical tensions – dulled demand for gold jewellery. 

Industry participants tell us that November’s VAT policy change – which added a tax burden on gold jewellery sales – discouraged demand and prompted a shift towards gold investment items. 

Consumers continued to favour more affordable pieces, such as light weight Hard Pure gold jewellery. These pieces offer affordability and appeal to younger consumers, while being profitable for retailers. Yet demand for high-ticket items, including chunky heritage gold pieces sold through boutique stores, provided evidence of resilience at the top-end of the market. 

Meanwhile, trade-ins (exchange of old jewellery for new pieces plus an additional labour charge) were a popular means of overcoming affordability barriers in 2025. We view such trends as a positive sign of elevated consumer interest in gold jewellery.

Affordability may remain a major constraint in 2026, with the recent VAT reform likely to continue to push investment-minded jewellery consumers toward bullion. 

China’s economic outlook will be equally important: external pressures and domestic uncertainty may weigh on growth and curb gold jewellery demand, although expected rate cuts and supportive fiscal measures could help restore confidence and discretionary spending.

Industry consolidation will likely continue as the sector adjusts to past over-capacity. Hard Pure gold jewellery is set to maintain its relative strength, while high-end craftsmanship and themed designs should attract younger buyers. Q1 demand may benefit from seasonal trends as retailers restock in January, the late Chinese New Year shifts purchases into February, and wedding-related buying provides additional support.

India

Festival- and wedding-related buying boosted Q4 Indian jewellery q/q, but a sharp y/y drop was an inevitable consequence of the record gold price. In value terms, however, Q4 saw a record US$19bn spent on gold jewellery, taking the annual total to an unprecedented US$49bn.

Sentiment towards gold jewellery remains very strong in India, but consumers typically have fixed budgets for such spending, and this acts as a brake on the quantity of gold they can buy – particularly given the 74% rise in the local gold price over the year. 

Demand benefited from advance wedding-related buying in October as consumers made the most of the gold price dip during the month. Demand subsequently moderated as the price resumed its relentless upward path.

While 14k jewellery gained some traction – particularly among the younger demographic in in northern urban centres – swathes of the country remained reluctant to accept lower carat jewellery as it dilutes a key reason for holding it: long-term capital preservation. 

Promotional campaigns by retailers helped the organised sector to outperform and boosted revenues, despite falling gold volume sales.

Gold jewellery exchange remains a key trend, as does the increasing monetisation of gold jewellery. At the end of November the value of retail loans backed by gold jewellery with Indian banks stood at INR3.6tn (US$40bn), +125% y/y. 

Middle East and Turkey

Against a continued background of high consumer inflation, a volatile domestic and regional geopolitical environment, and weak consumer sentiment, annual gold jewellery demand in Turkey sank to its lowest since 2020. 

The value of annual gold jewellery consumption was 14% higher y/y, although this lagged the broader global performance. 

The country’s high-inflation environment imposed a double whammy on the sector; jewellery fabricators were faced with higher input costs, which fed through to higher margins and yet-higher prices for the Turkish consumer. Local premiums of up to US$300/oz were a major headwind in Q4. 

Markets across the Middle East were in line with the global trend: meaningful declines in volumes contrasted with significantly higher values.

The 15% VAT on gold jewellery in Saudi Arabia exacerbated the impact of record gold prices and encouraged a shift towards investment products. A similar trend was noted in UAE, where heightened regional tensions focused attention on lower-margin investment products.

Demand in Iran was notable for being relatively stable, with volumes just 1% lower on the year. This resilience reflected the need for safe-haven assets – in whatever form available – in an environment of heightened geopolitical tensions, but ultimately demand was constrained as the rising price eroded purchasing power. 

US and Europe

In line with the global trend, 2025 US jewellery consumption was impacted by higher prices. But the decline in volume was eclipsed by a 28% rise in spending to US$13bn.

Fieldwork suggests that this was not due to a notable shift towards lower carat items, but simply a reduction in fine weight purchased. Indeed, the K-shaped economy appeared to be reflected in fairly healthy demand for premium high-carat, high-end jewellery, with affordability constraints less of an issue among the higher disposable income segment of the market. 

In Europe, gold jewellery volumes registered their third consecutive annual decline to produce the weakest annual total since COVID-hit 2020. 

Value, in contrast, has now increased for five years straight and reached a record of US$7bn.

ASEAN markets

The ASEAN countries for which we report individual gold demand data all showed a similar response to record gold prices. Demand fell to multi-year lows, while values made sizable gains. 

Indonesia lagged the rest of the region as the domestic economic environment posed challenges: broader cost of living pressures further curbed affordability of gold jewellery. Consequently, a shift towards lower-carat items – notably below 14-carat – was noted.

Rest of Asia

Japan was among the more resilient jewellery markets in 2025, with volumes falling by ‘just’ 11%, resulting in above-average growth in value of 29% to a record US$1.5bn. 

Local demand was supported by demand for quasi-investment ‘asset jewellery’ products (typically plain chains with minimal design and hence relatively low mark-ups).

Despite only a marginal 1% decline in annual South Korean demand, it nonetheless fell to a record low as the rising price encouraged a shift to lower-carat jewellery. In contrast, gold jewellery value jumped 39% to a record US$1.2bn. 

Australia

Despite a thriving retail investment market, Australian gold jewellery volumes registered a 22% decline in 2025, sinking to the lowest in our five-year data series. Value increased by 11% but fell short of the 2023 annual level.