Weekly Markets Monitor - Conflict pressure mounts
30 March, 2026
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Highlights
- Geopolitics and rising energy prices dominated markets last week, raising stagflation concerns. Early signs of fallout from the Middle East conflict are emerging, with softer PMIs across several economies. In the US, consumer sentiment weakened as inflation expectations rose. UK inflation held steady in February but faces upward pressure from higher energy costs, while Japan’s inflation eased on subsidies. China’s industrial profits rose, pointing to a firmer recovery
- Major global equities closed the week lower, a bond sell-off drove yields higher, while the US dollar strengthened and oil prices rose.
- Our take on the Deutsche Bank ‘Pressure Index’**, suggests we are above levels where the US administration has previously issued rhetoric or strategic reversals of key policies (C.O.T.W). The reaction of index components: the 10-year Treasury yield, S&P 500, approval ratings and inflation expectations to the Middle East conflict was swift and sharp. Whether a de-escalation will happen is unclear. Following its recent liquidity-led retracement, gold appears to have stabilised with short-term risks facing off against constructive medium-term fundamentals.
Chart of the week: Conflict pressure mounts
Our version of Deutsche Bank’s “Pressure Index” uses the 20-day change in four variables: US 10-year Treasury yield, S&P 500, 1-year inflation expectations, Presidential approval ratings (RealClear). These are standardised and equally weighted as an index.
Source: Bloomberg, World Gold Council
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