Market update

Market Update: German investment market

Published 5th October 2017

Germany’s gold investment market has boomed in the past 10 years. In the face of successive financial crises and loose monetary policy, German investors turned to gold to protect their wealth. In response, new product providers entered the market making it easier for people to invest. Last year, more than €6bn was ploughed into gold investment products in Germany and, encouragingly, there is room for further growth: consumer research indicates there is latent retail demand which the industry can tap into.

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Published 8th June 2017

On 1st July, India’s labyrinth of taxes will be replaced with a simple, nationwide Goods & Services Tax (GST). This is the biggest fiscal reform since India’s liberalisation in the early 1990s. While gold consumers will face a slightly higher tax rate, and the industry will go through a period of adjustment, we see the net impact on the gold industry as being positive. The gold supply chain should become more transparent and efficient, and the tax reform can boost economic growth, which we see as supporting gold demand.

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Published 8th March 2017

A barrage of policy initiatives aimed at purging India of black money and instilling greater transparency rocked India’s economy last year, including its gold market. The most dramatic was the radical decision to demonetise over 15 trillion rupees, around US$220bn. Other policies – such as the re-introduction of excise duty – affected the gold market, too. And the forthcoming Goods & Service Tax (GST) will change the shape of the industry. India’s gold market faces some short-term headwinds. But looking ahead, these policies may deliver a stronger economy and a more transparent gold industry, underpinning gold demand, which we expect to be between 650-750t in 2017.

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Published 3rd November 2016

On November 2, 2016 the gold price broke above US$1,300/oz for the first time since early October, as the surprise announcement last Friday October 28th by the FBI relating to Clinton’s email probe, injected a new wave of uncertainty into the presidential election.

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Published 5th October 2016

Following a remarkable performance year-to-date, the gold price fell by over 3% on 4 October, taking it below US$1,300/oz for the first time since the Brexit announcement in June 2016.

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Published 3rd August 2016

The gold price breached US$1,360/oz for a second time in 2016, as investors are starting to lose confidence in the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies.

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Published 24th June 2016

The gold price surged as the UK surprised the world by voting to Leave the EU. We expect gold inflows to accelerate as geopolitical and market uncertainty rises.

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Published 7th April 2016

The gold price staged a spectacular rally in the first quarter of this year, rising by 17% in US dollar terms. This was its best performance in almost three decades, significantly outperforming other major stock, bond and commodity indices.

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Published 31st March 2016

Investors should consider doubling their gold allocations amid negative interest rates We have entered a new and unprecedented phase in monetary policy. Central banks in Europe and Japan have now implemented Negative Interest Rate Policies (NIRP) to counteract deflationary pressures and, in some cases, currency appreciation. Amid higher market uncertainty, the price of gold is up by 16% year-to-date – in part due to NIRP.

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Published 30th May 2013

April 2013 witnessed a significant drop in gold prices, from US$ 1,535.5/oz on Friday 12 to intraday lows of US$ 1,320/oz on Tuesday 16th before stabilising around US$ 1,390/oz. This Q2 market update analyses the price fall from a demand perspective and highlights its impacts on key physical and exchange traded gold markets.

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