Market update

Market Update: India's Budget - policy and progress

Published 15th February 2018

India, a nation that accounts for around a fifth of annual global gold demand, has a long history of gold-focused policies. These, however, have often distorted the market rather than achieving policymakers’ aims. Announcements in the Union Budget on 1 February 2018, however, suggest this might change.

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Published 5th December 2017

Changes are afoot in the technology sector. Smartphones are becoming increasingly powerful, electric and self-driving vehicles could revolutionise the automotive industry, and emerging nanotechnology could transform solar energy. All of this could have a positive impact on gold demand.

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Published 5th October 2017

Germany’s gold investment market has boomed in the past 10 years. In the face of successive financial crises and loose monetary policy, German investors turned to gold to protect their wealth. In response, new product providers entered the market making it easier for people to invest. Last year, more than €6bn was ploughed into gold investment products in Germany and, encouragingly, there is room for further growth: consumer research indicates there is latent retail demand which the industry can tap into.

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Published 8th June 2017

On 1st July, India’s labyrinth of taxes will be replaced with a simple, nationwide Goods & Services Tax (GST). This is the biggest fiscal reform since India’s liberalisation in the early 1990s. While gold consumers will face a slightly higher tax rate, and the industry will go through a period of adjustment, we see the net impact on the gold industry as being positive. The gold supply chain should become more transparent and efficient, and the tax reform can boost economic growth, which we see as supporting gold demand.

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Published 8th March 2017

A barrage of policy initiatives aimed at purging India of black money and instilling greater transparency rocked India’s economy last year, including its gold market. The most dramatic was the radical decision to demonetise over 15 trillion rupees, around US$220bn. Other policies – such as the re-introduction of excise duty – affected the gold market, too. And the forthcoming Goods & Service Tax (GST) will change the shape of the industry. India’s gold market faces some short-term headwinds. But looking ahead, these policies may deliver a stronger economy and a more transparent gold industry, underpinning gold demand, which we expect to be between 650-750t in 2017.

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Published 3rd November 2016

On November 2, 2016 the gold price broke above US$1,300/oz for the first time since early October, as the surprise announcement last Friday October 28th by the FBI relating to Clinton’s email probe, injected a new wave of uncertainty into the presidential election.

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Published 5th October 2016

Following a remarkable performance year-to-date, the gold price fell by over 3% on 4 October, taking it below US$1,300/oz for the first time since the Brexit announcement in June 2016.

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Published 3rd August 2016

The gold price breached US$1,360/oz for a second time in 2016, as investors are starting to lose confidence in the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies.

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Published 24th June 2016

The gold price surged as the UK surprised the world by voting to Leave the EU. We expect gold inflows to accelerate as geopolitical and market uncertainty rises.

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Published 7th April 2016

The gold price staged a spectacular rally in the first quarter of this year, rising by 17% in US dollar terms. This was its best performance in almost three decades, significantly outperforming other major stock, bond and commodity indices.

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