Market update

On 1st July, India’s labyrinth of taxes will be replaced with a simple, nationwide Goods & Services Tax (GST). This is the biggest fiscal reform since India’s liberalisation in the early 1990s. While gold consumers will face a slightly higher tax rate, and the industry will go through a period of adjustment, we see the net impact on the gold industry as being positive. The gold supply chain should become more transparent and efficient, and the tax reform can boost economic growth, which we see as supporting gold demand.

A barrage of policy initiatives aimed at purging India of black money and instilling greater transparency rocked India’s economy last year, including its gold market. The most dramatic was the radical decision to demonetise over 15 trillion rupees, around US$220bn. 

Financial markets have fallen sharply in response to Donald Trump’s election as the 45th President of the United States. Equity markets are down notably in Asian and early European trading.

On November 2, 2016 the gold price broke above US$1,300/oz for the first time since early October, as the surprise announcement last Friday October 28th by the FBI relating to Clinton’s email probe, injected a new wave of uncertainty into the presidential election.

Following a remarkable performance year-to-date, the gold price fell by over 3% on 4 October, taking it below US$1,300/oz for the first time since the Brexit announcement in June 2016.

The gold price breached US$1,360/oz for a second time in 2016, as investors are starting to lose confidence in the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies.

The gold price surged as the UK surprised the world by voting to Leave the EU. We expect gold inflows to accelerate as geopolitical and market uncertainty rises.

The gold price staged a spectacular rally in the first quarter of this year, rising by 17% in US dollar terms. This was its best performance in almost three decades, significantly outperforming other major stock, bond and commodity indices.

We have entered a new and unprecedented phase in monetary policy. Central banks in Europe and Japan have now implemented Negative Interest Rate Policies (NIRP) to counteract deflationary pressures and, in some cases, currency appreciation.

April 2013 witnessed a significant drop in gold prices, from US$ 1,535.5/oz on Friday 12 to intraday lows of US$ 1,320/oz on Tuesday 16th before stabilising around US$ 1,390/oz.